BHARAT RAKSHAK MONITOR - Volume 2(6) May-June 2000

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Anniversaries and Debates

May marks a couple of significant anniversaries for India - the first is the second anniversary of the Pokhran tests, and the second is the first anniversary of the Kargil war. The fallout of both events are still being debated and assessed both within the country and globally.

At a minimum, the tests have resolved the dilemma facing India after the indefinite extension of the NPT. After that defining event there were two choices left for India - either adhere to the treaty as a non -weapon state or exercise its option. The Ghauri test that broke the strategic balance in South Asia helped India reach a momentous decision sooner rather than latter. One consequence of the tests is a growing international consensus that Kashmir is no longer a disputed area, with even the US coming around to sanctifying the Line of Control (LoC) with the same merits of an international border. The diplomatic fallout of the tests has been largely minimized as can be seen by the US presidential visit to India and the Indian President’s visit to France and planned visit to China. The interaction with major powers has been an ongoing process since and has led to significant understanding on their part of India’s motivations. The economic sanctions imposed in the aftermath of the nuclear tests have been quite ineffective as is evident from recent performance of the economy. Unfortunately, the domestic rhetoric on nuclearization remains shrill and needs more time for reconciliation.

The May ‘98 tests had a significant impact on the Kargil War. It was the first direct confrontation between two nuclear powers since the Sino-Russian clashes on the Ussuri River in the late sixties. Unlike those clashes, these took place in full glare of public and international attention. Mindful of the repercussions of escalating the conflict India chose to fight the war on its own territory and managed to foil the Pakistani objective of internationalizing the problem. Clearly, American help was sought to assure safe passage for withdrawing their intruders but third party intervention was limited to this. Kargil also demonstrated to the world that India was a responsible power, which would not use nuclear threats to vacate aggression and forcible occupation of its own land. However, the efforts to dislodge the aggressors were relatively costly in both men and ordnance.

The war highlighted the many shortcomings in the conduct of national security in India. The government appointed the Kargil Review Committee to go into the causes of the surprise and make recommendations. The Committee worked diligently and produced a voluminous report. The main finding was the complete surprise achieved by neighbor in its aggression. We bring you our reviews for your consideration as a part of our coverage of Kargil. Indeed our historical piece in this issue clearly notes that Kargil’99 wasn’t the first time that the road across the Zoji La has had to be secured. This is our third issue on this subject as it marks the emergence of a new India, which has shed its innocence on the craggy slopes of the high Himalayas. This issue also examines Pakistan’s proxy war against India and what that means for the region’s and Pakistan’s own stability. A unique article in this issue investigates the fincancial side of Pakistan's subversive activities in the region. As a corollary, this issue questions the conventional view that a stable and prosperous Pakistan is in India’s interest.

A point to note from the collection of articles - the commentary on KRC report, the article on Pokhran anniversary and the Pakistan related articles is the conclusion that opaque deterrence such as that practiced in the Middle East was not possible in the subcontinent, given the Pakistani attitude towards India. The invariant in Pakistani behavior, throughout the last fifty years has been the repeated attempts to change the border by force of arms.  Add to the mix the covert Sino-Pak cooperation on WMD technology. Coupled with a misreading of the potential Indian response to aggression it is a recipe for disaster. In retrospect there was simply no alternative to the May '98 tests.

Finally, we offer tributes to those who perished at Kargil defending this country and our way of life.

 

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