Anniversaries and Debates
May
marks a couple of significant anniversaries for India - the first is the second
anniversary of the Pokhran tests, and the second is the first anniversary of the Kargil
war. The fallout of both events are still being debated and assessed both within the
country and globally.
At a minimum, the tests have resolved the dilemma facing India after
the indefinite extension of the NPT. After that defining event there were two choices left
for India - either adhere to the treaty as a non -weapon state or exercise its option. The
Ghauri test that broke the strategic balance in South Asia helped India reach a momentous
decision sooner rather than latter. One consequence of the tests is a growing
international consensus that Kashmir is no longer a disputed area, with even the US coming
around to sanctifying the Line of Control (LoC) with the same merits of an international
border. The diplomatic fallout of the tests has been largely minimized as can be seen by
the US presidential visit to India and the Indian Presidents visit to France and
planned visit to China. The interaction with major powers has been an ongoing process
since and has led to significant understanding on their part of Indias motivations.
The economic sanctions imposed in the aftermath of the nuclear tests have been quite
ineffective as is evident from recent performance of the economy. Unfortunately, the
domestic rhetoric on nuclearization remains shrill and needs more time for reconciliation.
The May 98 tests had a significant impact on the Kargil War. It
was the first direct confrontation between two nuclear powers since the Sino-Russian
clashes on the Ussuri River in the late sixties. Unlike those clashes, these took place in
full glare of public and international attention. Mindful of the repercussions of
escalating the conflict India chose to fight the war on its own territory and managed to
foil the Pakistani objective of internationalizing the problem. Clearly, American help was
sought to assure safe passage for withdrawing their intruders but third party intervention
was limited to this. Kargil also demonstrated to the world that India was a responsible
power, which would not use nuclear threats to vacate aggression and forcible occupation of
its own land. However, the efforts to dislodge the aggressors were relatively costly in
both men and ordnance.
The war highlighted the many shortcomings in the conduct of national
security in India. The government appointed the Kargil Review Committee to go into the
causes of the surprise and make recommendations. The Committee worked diligently and
produced a voluminous report. The main finding was the complete surprise achieved by
neighbor in its aggression. We bring you our reviews for your consideration as a part of
our coverage of Kargil. Indeed our historical piece in this issue clearly notes that
Kargil99 wasnt the first time that the road across the Zoji La has had to be
secured. This is our third issue on this subject as it marks the emergence of a new India,
which has shed its innocence on the craggy slopes of the high Himalayas. This issue also
examines Pakistans proxy war against India and what that means for the regions
and Pakistans own stability. A unique article in this issue investigates the
fincancial side of Pakistan's subversive activities in the region. As a corollary, this
issue questions the conventional view that a stable and prosperous Pakistan is in
Indias interest.
A point to note from the
collection of articles - the commentary on KRC report, the article on Pokhran anniversary
and the Pakistan related articles is the conclusion that opaque deterrence such as that
practiced in the Middle East was not possible in the subcontinent, given the Pakistani
attitude towards India. The invariant in Pakistani behavior, throughout the last fifty
years has been the repeated attempts to change the border by force of arms. Add to
the mix the covert Sino-Pak cooperation on WMD technology. Coupled with a misreading of
the potential Indian response to aggression it is a recipe for disaster. In retrospect
there was simply no alternative to the May '98 tests.
Finally, we offer tributes to those who
perished at Kargil defending this country and our way of life.
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