The
Indian Fault Line
Capt
(Retd.) Bharat Verma
The
genesis of the Indian fault line can be traced to many centuries
of foreign domination of the subcontinent. Its scars are deeply
etched in our psyche. It inhibits us from developing a cogent
strategy for the nation. Notwithstanding the large resources,
genius, skills, young population profile and an imposing
geographical location in
Asia
,
this limitation manifests in creating multiple fault lines
across the national canvas. To develop a successful strategy, a
nation must primarily take into account its own characteristics
prior to incorporating other elements. For example, a military
expert recommended demilitarisation of Siachen glacier with two
riders. First, he suggested that there should be a role model
treaty like the Indus Water Treaty to ensure
Pakistan
did not commit treachery in occupying the areas vacated by us.
Second, even if it did so, we should make it clear that there
will be serious repercussions on other frontiers with the
concomitant collateral damage. As a military man he was acutely
aware, it will be nearly impossible to regain the territory lost
on the glacier given the adverse terrain and climatic
conditions. Right? No. Wrong on both counts.
First,
Indus Water Treaty is not a role model arrangement for the
simple reason that hypothetically, if the direction of water
flow were from
Pakistan
to
India
,
this treaty would never have materialised in the first place!
Indus Water Treaty survives because of our magnanimity. Second,
New
Delhi
does not boast of any instinctive characteristic of military
retribution ever, except in the case of 1971 conflict. Also, the
Indian Fault Line disallows our elders to comprehend or scan the
bigger picture. If they do indulge in such an exercise, they
would be strategically prudent in not offering demilitarisation
of Siachen in isolation to other negative elements that are
intrinsic to
Pakistan
’s
overall game plan. The tendency to create their own make-believe
world convinced many of our countrymen that the invasions from
our land frontiers for centuries could be ignored as the
subcontinent assimilated the invaders in the existing society.
How misplaced and erroneous, a perception. Invaders from the
Northwest/Central
Asia
ruled over the locals by edge of the sword and forced their
assimilation. Our helpless, bewildered ancestors with their
petty bickering were left with little choice and therefore,
tried to make a virtue out of consistent defeats. It persists in
the Indian mind. No wonder; the terrorists across LoC ignore the
fancy Cold Start Doctrine!
However,
with generational change sweeping the entire spectrum of the
Indian society, certain assertiveness is finally creeping in as
witnessed during the Tsunami that was handled with finesse by
New
Delhi
.
The generation next is extremely focussed, capable of
comprehending the entire strategic picture swiftly, and displays
a fine balance between tolerance and aggressiveness
simultaneously. The key question, in my mind, has always been
whether
India
will be a surrogate or a ‘great power’. Fortunately, the
generation next is impelling
India
towards the great power status. It is not a status quo
generation, but remains confounded with
New
Delhi
’s
inability to define clear strategic objectives. In a discussion
held recently, I asked a former prime minister what our national
strategic objectives were? It took him good one and a half hour
that included a lunch tuck-in to respond that the national
objectives were to have a peaceful neighbourhood! Even if one
agrees with that generality, than what exactly was the strategy
to achieve it? It did not elicit any answer.
Our
national objective should be to promote
India
as
an eminent power in
Asia
by
2020 by developing it as the alternative geo-economic hub that
integrates and influences our extended neighbourhood through
economic and military diplomacy.
India
as
a benevolent power is suitably placed and conveniently located,
geographically, culturally and otherwise to play this role
effectively. Equipped with the most powerful Free Media in
Asia
that can be intelligently utilised as a weapon platform to
further national interests, it needs to develop strategies that
influence Central, West and
Southeast
Asia
.
With all its inadequacies, it remains a democracy worth
emulating
that checks formation of a medieval jehadi Caliphate that the
terrorist organisations in our vicinity intend to create. It is
the only power in
Asia
that is eminently poised to extend a helping hand to restore a
debilitating situation in its surroundings; balance the negative
fallouts from an authoritarian regime of
China
in
the region, even as we enhance our multi-faceted cooperation
with the dragon. Our strategy in the present unfolding
favourable geo-political scenario should be to further
strengthen the relationships with the existing friends while
adding new strategic partners to the list.
However,
it is imperative that the implications of the fault line are
understood and erased as the generation next gradually takes
over the instruments of governance. Even as we embark on
expanding our influence on global scale, we need to resolve the
adverse situation prevalent internally and on our land frontiers
as explained with the help of a map along side.
·
India
is ringed by failed /
failing states.
Pakistan
(land boundary with
India
3310 kilometers) in
the northwest.
Nepal
(land boundary with
India
1751 kilometers) in
the north.
Bangladesh
(land boundary with
India
4095 kilometers) in
the southeast.
Myanmar
(land boundary with
India
1463 kilometers) in
the northeast.
India
’s internal
turbulence is inter-linked with external factors. On our North,
in addition, we face
China
(
India
shares borders
spanning 3440 kilometers) from whom we not only face
conventional, nuclear and missile threats but it is also the guru
that influences / or uses as proxy other countries mentioned
earlier in every possible way to weigh
India
down. In a nutshell,
India
’s 14,058 km long
land frontier is impacted by hostile or semi-hostile
environment. Failed /failing states export instability,
terrorism, religious fundamentalism, arms and drugs. Further, in
the context of strategy, capabilities are more important than
perceived intentions, as
China
has demonstrated not
only to
India
but also to the
world. It has intelligently diverted international focus away
from itself to North Korea, Pakistan and countries like Iran
through proliferation of sensitive technologies, even as it
conveniently works to achieve a super power status by
solidifying its status as the ‘Asian top dog’. For example,
in the six country nuclear talks with
North Korea
, it is
Beijing
that calls the shots.
It can switch on or off the negotiations at its will to derive
the maximum strategic mileage. In comparison,
New Delhi
continues to remain
in ‘also ran’ category.
·
If
China
is the guru
than in
Pakistan
it has found a
suppliant disciple.
Pakistan
desires to be the Sarpanch
of the subcontinent! The territory was given to it with an
understanding that the entire Muslim community will transfer
itself to the so-called land of pure. It was only
approximately 15 percent which accepted the idea and made
Pakistan
their homeland.
Others displayed great wisdom in choosing to remain in
India
with its liberal
philosophy and where the prospects of prosperity were far
greater. The community continues to produce Presidents,
generals, diplomats, ambassadors, business tycoons etc.who
served/serve the country with great distinction. Overall, the
community’s contribution to
India
has been enormous.
Since the majority refused to exit, as speciously argued by
Pakistan
founders,
Islamabad
should return the
excess land given to it. Instead, since its creation,
Pakistan
has perpetually been
resorting to war and export of terrorism to appropriate more
Indian territory
on one pretext or the
other. The irony is that it has not been able to bring
prosperity to the territory it holds. The only widely known
export worldwide from
Pakistan
is terrorism. While
India
’s generation
next profile is positive,
Pakistan
faces a negative
profile of indoctrinated and unemployed youth trained in Islamic
Jehad Factory against us. The profile becomes more worrisome
because of
Islamabad
’s ethnic cleansing
of minorities, that were 12.5 percent in 1947 but are only two
percent today. Thus the voice of moderation has become feeble
over the years. Besides,
Islamabad
’s military
junta’s agenda to undo
India
, helps them to retain
power. The obsession to harm us ultimately allured
Pakistan
to become rent-a–state
country. It lives on others money. It not only carried out
ethnic cleansing of its own minorities but created situations in
J&K through terrorism to force the exit of minorities from
there.
·
Meanwhile,
New Delhi
instead of permitting
and encouraging Indians of all hues to settle in J&K and the
Northeast to consolidate the
Union
, remained a mute
witness. Despite being broke,
Islamabad
continues to fuel
anti-India activities through
Nepal
and
Bangladesh
with impunity.
India
remains the target
and operating ground for Islamic fundamentalists and terrorist
groups orchestrated by ISI, notwithstanding the weekly
condemnation that Musharaff offers
India
after every terrorist
attack on our soil. The parrot like statements emanating every
month from
New Delhi
that “Stable and
secure
Pakistan
is in
India
’s interest” is
appreciated. However, the fundamental question is – will
Pakistan
ever be stable and
secure? Never. Therefore,
New Delhi
needs to evolve an
alternative strategy to comprehensively defeat the adversary’s
nefarious activities that poses military, nuclear and
demographic inversion threats. This is a do-able proposition
provided our elders can think beyond the overwhelming burden
created by the inherited fault line. In any case, appeasement
cannot constitute an element of strategy for any country.
·
To
attain eminence in
Asia
by 2020,
New Delhi
needs to move on
three axes simultaneously i.e
New Delhi
–West
Asia
, New
Delhi–Southeast Asia and
New Delhi–Central
Asia
. Out of the three,
the most critical is the New Delhi-Kabul-Tehran-Moscow axis, on
two counts. First, for centuries this is the route of invasions
and will remain so. With
Russia
today threatened as
much, an opportunity for a tie-up exists which could lend
stability to the region. We can only afford to ignore this axis
at our peril. Second, as the second largest consumer of oil and
gas in
Asia
, and as one of the
engines that will power the world economy, energy security is
the most critical factor in
India
’s national security
calculus. Future energy will be based on a combination of fuels
– nuclear, oil, gas and coal. By 2010, a substantial amount of
oil and gas will be delivered by
Central Asia
. This resource rich
territory will fall prey to Pak sponsored Talibanisation if
India
and other countries
do not preempt it. In fact, the American companies in such an
eventuality will be expelled, particularly with Chinese
gradually gaining ground and occupying positions that will
dictate the agenda in
Central Asia
in future. Therefore,
it may be prudent for American capital to join hands with the
Indians in a JV, especially since we enjoy great deal of
goodwill there. Many other sensible permutations and
combinations for harmony in
Central Asia
can easily be worked
out by
New Delhi
. This will in turn
check the destructive influence of
Islamabad
and balance the
Chinese strategic thrust.
·
In the
North, similarly
Nepal
continues to slip
into the Chinese sphere of influence due to counter-productive
policy by
New Delhi
. To apply the
template of democracy being bandied by the west that is workable
neither in
Iraq
nor in
Nepal
, we have walked into
a trap of our own making. The King’s Army is at present
unequal to the challenge posed by the Maoists for want of
military hardware supplies and training. In
Nepal
, the Maoists have a
sizeable influence in 45 of the 75 districts, their most
formidable presence being in mid-western
Nepal
. The Maoists have
linked up with the Peoples War Group (PWG) in
India
. The latter in a bid
to expand its influence has carved a corridor encompassing the
states of Andhra Pradesh–Madhya Pradesh–Chhatisgarh–Orissa–West
Bengal–Jharkhand–Bihar as shown in the map. This corridor
that has been formed with ease depicts the Indian Fault Line
with stark clarity on ground.
·
Combine
the bleak picture above with
Bangladesh
and
Myanmar
borders and the
Indian Fault Line engulfs most of the eastern half of the
Union
. Insurgency in
varying degrees impacts on the Northeast with the exception of
Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh and has trans-border dimensions
with
Myanmar
and
Bangladesh
. The 21 to 65 km wide
and 200 km long narrow Siliguri corridor between
Nepal
and
Bangladesh
is delicately poised
when also considering
China
in the north. This
corridor threatened by Kamtapuri insurgency and demographic
inversion by Bangladesh can cut off the only land link to the
Indian Northeast and in such an eventuality supplies will have
to be maintained by air. Consequently,
Bhutan
may also slip into
the Chinese sphere of influence. There is already a nexus
between Maoists in
Nepal
and ULFA in
Assam
and is being enlarged
to include PWG in
India
and Islamic terrorist
groups in
Bangladesh
. With
Dacca
’s geographical
interface with five Indian states i.e. West Bengal, Assam,
Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram; Indian security stands
threatened by: demographic assault, arms and drug smuggling, and
safe havens for Indian insurgent groups. Islamic groups in
Bangladesh
under ISI tutelage,
Saudi finance, and
China
’s patronage, have
become more vicious, thus adding another dimension to
India
’s security
headache.
·
To
appreciate the grim reality on land frontiers, it is necessary
to take it as one big wall of turbulence running from West to
North and from there to the East.
Pakistan
, of course is the
main culprit with military, mullah and ISI mix. Internally,
inability to govern is the central issue. Besides, the shortage
of Officers to the tune of 14,000 in the Army, ageing profile of
the Defence Services, and the snail pace of modernisation of the
military (when we
have access to the latest technology worldwide and the money in
our pockets to buy it) should be a point of worry to
New Delhi
. I am afraid; it does
not cause sufficient stress!
·
In this
big picture of strategic deficiency, if a vertical line from
Central Uttar Pradesh southwards to Eastern Andhra Pradesh were
drawn, it would lead to an ineluctale observation that
India
’s Eastern Half is
in turmoil. The Western Half is not only relatively progressive
and peaceful but also generates most of the wealth along with
the South. Even with this lop-sided generation of wealth by the
Union
, the Western agencies
predict
India
to be the third
largest economy by 2025. Just imagine the result if the Eastern
Half along with Kashmir can be put in order through development
and bold counter-measures, to ensure the requisite peace and
stability, conducive to generation of wealth. In addition, the
negative profile of the Eastern Half in times to come will tend
to engulf the Western Half, if not resolved. However, if our
elders display ineptness in dealing with
Nepal
, which mirrors Indian
culture and is located in our backyard - what exactly can they
handle?
To
emerge as the great power that can lead Asia, the generation
next waiting to take over the instruments of governance by
2010, should erase the Indian Fault Line from the map and psyche
before other self-inflicted distortions by the Union on ground
can be resolved.
This
article first appeared in the Indian Defence Review, volume
20(3) and has been reproduced here with the permission of the
editor. The writer is Editor, Indian Defence Review
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