Security Research Review

The All Seeing Eye

The terrible tragedy of the London blasts has once gain showcased the global reach of terrorists from Pakistan. The meticulous planning and sophistication of the devices all point to elements of state sponsorship. The root of this terror clearly lies in Pakistan and not in misguided youth in Britain. There may be elements of the Muslim community that are alienated from their British cultural surroundings but it takes a Jihadi training camp in Pakistan to turn an aimless social misfit into a suicide bomber capable of coordinated attacks. Post 9-11 General Musharraf, the military dictator who ousted a democratically elected government, was given international acceptance because he offered to stamp out terrorism in Pakistan. The London blasts indicate that either he is unable or unwilling to work aggressively against Jihadi groups. As his press interviews show, he is very adept at making excuses for his failures. This brings to mind the disturbing possibility that a section of the Pakistani military intelligence establishment - the ISI - had broken away from General Musharraf's control. This possibility must be investigated and the exact nature of the relationship between the Pakistani government and groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed must be determined. Global terror will not end until the terrorist training factories in Pakistan's madrassas are shut down. If this needs more pro-active leadership in Pakistan - then a move in that direction is warranted. Covering for Gen. Musharraf's incompetence is not a wise move. 

In Central Asia, the wave of “popular” revolutions that recently swept through the region, seems to have stopped rather abruptly in Andijan in Uzbekistan. Uzbek authorities cracked down on anti-government protestors in the eastern city of Andijan killing hundreds of people. In the aftermath of the police action, the international response from the United States and Russia was notably muted. However British Foreign Minister Jack Straw stated that, "there had been a clear abuse of human rights." What exact impact this will have on the Great Game is difficult to say. 

From an Indian perspective July proved beneficial as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) granted observer status to India, Iran, and Pakistan to improve regional cooperation on security issues such as terrorism. Notably the politics of the new 'Great Game' sharpened as the SCO led by Russian President Vladmir Putin and Chinese Premier Hu Jintao demanded a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops citing the "returning stability" in Afghanistan. US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld visited Central Asia and secured agreements from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan regarding military facilities. However Uzbekistan terminated its agreement allowing US access to Karshi-Khanabad airbase. Furthermore July witnessed the unprecedented Russian pullout from Georgia, under the backdrop the recent opening of the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline, ending two centuries of Russian military presence in that country.

Meanwhile the situation in Afghanistan continues to worsen as the country reels under a cycle of violence. In late June the loss of a SEAL team and targeted attack on the rescue Chinook helicopter resulted in a tragic loss of life. Recent release of a videotape depicting the attack in the Arab world marks a disturbing trend previously seen during the Mujaheddin conflict against the Soviets and terrorist attacks on Indian troops in Jammu and Kashmir. Such videotapes seek to record “kills” for sensational, recruitment and payment purposes. 

American troops in the badlands of the Pakistan – Afghan border repeatedly come under attack from infiltrators based inside Pakistan. Frustrations mount over Pakistan’s passivity if not complicity over the burgeoning insurgency. Violence continues unabated with ambush attacks against Afghan National Army troops including gruesome beheadings. Numerous attacks against loyal clerics and judges in Southern Afghanistan have been recorded in Kandahar, Helmand and Uruzgan provinces. The resurgent Taliban continue to creep northward and reports of an attack against Hazaras in an effort to incite ethnic violence in Uruzgan province seems almost trademark. 

Troubling recordings have emerged from the Taliban. Mullah Dadiullah, member of the Rabhari Shura, alluded to the links with terrorists in Iraq coinciding with an up-tempo in attacks notably suicide bombings. Mullah Omar’s recordings urged various factions fighting coalition troops to unite for a victory. Much of the violence takes place against the backdrop of looming provincial and parliamentary elections set for September 18 that will solidify Afghanistan’s current government. A Freudian slip by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov stating that much of Afghanistan was under the control of the Taliban was termed irresponsible by his Afghan counterpart. Given recent events, the remarks may plainly be morbid foreshadowing.

Moments of hope continue to alternate with long spells of despair in Iraq. While insurgent violence shows no signs of abating, the political process of constitution-making has shown some remarkable progress. The deadline had to be extended for another 15 days as the Iraqi parliament failed to agree on a draft of the Iraqi constitution by August 15. Once again major political constituents in Iraq are busy hammering out the best possible deals for themselves. So far, negotiators have failed to reach agreement on several contentious issues, including federalism, distribution of Iraq's oil wealth, power relationships among the provinces and the role of the Shiite clerical hierarchy in Najaf. Sunni Arab negotiators have complained that they were being sidelined by Shiites and Kurds, who were cutting deals without them and have asked the United States and the international community to prevent Shiites and Kurds from pushing a draft charter through parliament without Sunni consent.

On the other hand, the domestic turmoil has been growing in the US with regard to Iraq policy, taking the favorability ratings of the US President, George W. Bush to its lowest ever. Some details are also emerging about Pentagon’s plans to withdraw a part of the US troops from Iraq b the spring of 2006. This has as much to do with the political trouble that President Bush is facing at home as with the fact that US troops are overextended today as never before, thereby creating complications for the larger US defense posture.

May 5, 2005 saw Indian space industry crossing many milestones when PSLV-C6 launched two indigenous satellites, CARTOSAT-1 and HAMSAT from the brand new Second Launch Pad (SLP). Fast launch turnaround from new SLP (uses integrate-transfer-and-launch concept) provides Satish Dhawan Space Centre (SDSC) capability to launches up to 6 space launches per year; including the future GSLV Mk-III heavy lift launcher.

CARTOSTAT-1s's stereoscopic mapping with 2.5 meter resolution allows accurate 3D mapping of earth for accurate terrain mapping for large civil construction, land planning, watershed and sea-coast management, environment auditing and modeling. Interestingly there is growing demand for such commercial cartographic data from various countries and businesses. During national emergencies high resolution cartographic data from neighboring lands is valuable for security applications. HAMSAT is India's first satellite gift to world's HAM radio communities.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to the US in July was a remarkable, though quiet success. Unlike the hoopla that used to surround earlier visits of Indian leaders to the US, this visit was a low-key affair with some very substantive outcomes. As part of a process called “Next Step in Strategic Partnership (NSSP)” India and the US had formally decided in 2002 to expand their cooperation in the area of civilian nuclear activities, civilian space programs, and high-technology trade as well as to broaden their dialogue on missile defense to promote nonproliferation and ease the transfer of advanced technologies to India. Access to American technology will likely result in an explosive growth in India’s satellite launches capability. The culmination of the NSSP led to the Indo-US nuclear pact signed during the recent visit of the Indian Prime Minister. Rewarding India for its exceptional record as a nuclear power by offering India a de facto recognition of its nuclear weapons status, the latest nuclear agreement has opened the doors of the global nuclear order for India. It also paves the way for Indian access to the global energy market in return for separating India’s military and civilian programs.

U.S also reaffirmed its position on the sanctity of the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. India and U.S have also identified three areas for future strengthening of their bilateral relations. This includes bilateral economic cooperation, promoting the values of pluralism and tolerance as the key to winning the war on terrorism, and building a new balance of power in Asia and beyond. It is clear that with Europe in decline and China rising, the US sees India as a future global power with the ability to maintain power balance in the 21st century. Prime Minister’s recent visit has been successful in giving Indo-US relations a new dynamic that should stand the test of the new century.

The editorial team of the SRR would like to express our sadness at the demise of HE King Fahd of Saudi Arabia. The passing of King Fahd symbolizes the end of an era and his statesmanship will be long remembered. The Fahd era was marked by generous government spending, and economic expansion in Saudi Arabia. This period was also witnessed an increased dependence on oil revenue and excessive spending by the Royal Family. The new dispensation under HE King Abdullah will most likely move to correct the effects of these patterns and bring about a gradual restructuring of the Saudi economy and polity. A very challenging decade lies ahead for Saudi Arabia.

Front Cover: CARTOSAT image of Brahma Khed in Gujarat, India, Courtesy www.isro.org