Possibilities and Pitfalls
The old wooden
Kaman
Bridge
, the last Indian outpost on the Line of Control (LOC), was
replaced by the Border Roads Organization with an
iron-and-concrete structure in a record time of two months.
The bridge was renamed Aman Setu (bridge of
peace). The
Srinagar
– Muzzarfarbad bus began operating on April 7 across the LOC
and was hailed by the Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Shri.
Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, as the “mother of all confidence
building measures.” The
bus service is dubbed as the karavan-e-aman (peace bus).
Extremist voices had always opposed the bus service and on April
6 two militants attacked the Tourist Reception Centre at
Srinagar
with automatic weapons and grenades.
They set fire to the building and injured six people
before being killed by the security forces. The attack did
not deter the passengers or the governments of
India
and
Pakistan
. Instead the bus was flagged of by Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh amid much fanfare and the State Chief Minister and other
officials welcomed the passengers coming from Muzzafrabad in
Pakistan Occupied Kashmir at the Aman Setu. These people
were given a grand cultural reception at Salamabad before
traveling on to meet their relatives in different parts of Jammu
& Kashmir. Since the maiden bus, the second bus departed as
scheduled on April 21st carrying mostly the visitors
back to their homes across the LOC. The announcement by the
Indian and Pakistani leadership that other routes between the
two countries would also be opened and that trucks would also
ply across divided J&K has come as a boost to the economic
aspirations of the people. In this spirit of development,
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other dignitaries flagged off
the inaugural train service between
Jammu
and Udhampur on April 13th, providing new economic
opportunities and easier communications for the people living in
the mountainous parts of
Jammu
. Meanwhile terrorists continued to attempt infiltration across
the fence on the LOC and make attacks within the state, but
improved defenses and diligent operations by the security forces
have frustrated their designs. The true test for the Pakistani
leadership will come when the snows melt and more infiltration
routes open up in the difficult upper reaches of J&K.
On
April 17th General Musharraf invited himself to watch
the cricket match between
India
and
Pakistan
.
During the visit he met the Prime Minister and other
political leaders. The
current visit was markedly different from his last visit to
India
in 2001.
At that time, General Musharraf’s aggressive and
undiplomatic posture led to the collapse of the
Agra
summit. The absence of
acrimony in this informal summit resulted in a joint declaration
stating that the peace process was now ‘irreversible’.
While supporting the government in an effort to build
peace, many analysts have pointed out that peace can be very
easily disrupted as long as
Pakistan
retains the infrastructure of
terrorism. In the
future phases of dialogue with
Pakistan
, the Indian government needs to focus
on a complete removal of the entire infrastructure of terrorism,
so that the peace process will truly become irreversible.
In
Pakistan
, Balochistan continues to boil.
While the Pakistani army seems to have secured the
natural gas installations at Sui, the major pipelines and the
power plants that were attacked by the Baloch nationalists early
this year, there has been no significant movement forward on the
political front. The
protagonists remain unconvinced about the sincerity of the
Pakistan
administration and retain their
ability to cause significant security-related worries to the
Pakistan
army.
Another interesting set of developments in the country
have been recent efforts by General Musharraf to secure his
political future beyond 2007, by splitting the Pakistan Muslim
League and possibly cutting deals with other political parties.
However, the fact remains that the only source of power
is his position as the commander of the army and it seems
unlikely that General Musharraf would give up this position and
risk removal, exile or possibly even death.
The
last few weeks have witnessed interesting developments on the
nuclear front.
Pakistan
has agreed to send samples of
centrifuges to the IAEA for tests to determine whether the
Iranian centrifuges originated from
Pakistan
.
Additionally, the Pakistani government was under
tremendous pressure from the United States to hand over Abdul
Qadeer Khan and possibly even the former Chief of Army Staff,
Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg for questioning.
Pakistan
seems to be hedged its risk by
signing a deal with the Chinese Government to build the
Chashma-2 nuclear reactor. This
reactor would produce plutonium that could potentially be
diverted to the nuclear weapons program.
Europe
and the
US
are trying their best to put the scarred trans-Atlantic
relationship back on track. The visit of the
US
President to
Europe
in February was a major step in this direction. He showed an
understanding of European concerns and was received with warmth
not previously visible towards the U.S in recent years.
Interestingly, behind the trans-Atlantic rapprochement
are widely differing perceptions about the direction of this
relationship. Bush administration views
Europe
’s new-found warmth as a consequence of the tectonic changes
taking place in the
Middle East
after the removal of Saddam Hussein. Meanwhile,
Europe
views the Bush administration’s recent moves towards
multilateralism as a vindication of their stand on
Iraq
and a failure of the “go-it-alone” neo-conservative agenda.
It would be simplistic to state that recent US-European
rapprochement is simply a result of the changing political
landscape in the
Middle East
. The West is facing a host of diplomatic challenges and the
Bush Administration is making a concerted effort to present a
united front with the Europeans in tackling these challenges.
On
Iran
, the
US
seems to have decided to back European-led negotiations with
Tehran
. According to some reports, the
US
is now ready to consider providing inducements to
Iran
such as World Trade Organization membership and badly needed
airplane parts, with possibly the sale of new civilian airlines
from Boeing or Airbus. The European trio – the French, the
Germans, and the British – presented a united front on this
issue. The
US
clearly stated its opposition to
Europe
’s attempts to lift arms embargo against
China
. However,
notwithstanding this recent cozying up between the
US
and
Europe
, significant differences remain between the two on a range of
issues. Even on
Iran
, the
US
concessions are dependent on permanent dismantlement of
Iran
’s nuclear program while the Europeans are willing to
negotiate for a temporary freeze. In regards to
North Korea
, the Europeans would like the
US
to initiate one-on-one talks with
Pyongyang
while the
US
is only willing to talk to
North Korea
within the framework on the six-party negotiations involving
China
,
South Korea
,
Russia
, and
Japan
. Lastly, the Europeans are still reluctant in aiding US in
Iraq
.
US
Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice’s high profile whirlwind
tour of
Asia
in March has once again focused attention on the continent’s
crucial place in global security and stability. Secretary Rice
outlined a new strategic vision for the Asian security
architecture with emerging powers like
Japan
and
India
at its center. She welcomed
Japan
’s increasingly assertive role on the global stage even as she
asked
China
to match its growing capabilities to its international
responsibilities. The importance which the
US
attaches to its ties with
India
was reflected in Rice’s choice of
India
as her first stop in her tour.
As an indication of burgeoning Indo –
US
ties, the
US
is ready to offer civilian nuclear technology to
India
and completely lift all nuclear sanctions imposed after the
peaceful nuclear explosion of 1974. During her visit, Rice
explicitly acknowledged
India
’s rising global profile and sought
India
’s partnership in maintaining regional and global stability.
Despite some glitches such as the
US
opposition to the Indo-Iran gas pipeline project and Indian
opposition to the sale of F-16 fighters to
Pakistan
, the visit reflected the changing framework for Indo-US ties.
Secretary Rice reiterated that the
US
has no intention of attacking
North Korea
. However, she
plainly stated that the
US
has run out of patience with
North Korea
’s continued refusal to rejoin nuclear disarmament talks.
There is a growing perception in the
US
that
China
is not doing enough to effectively pressure
North Korea
on its nuclear program. She challenged
China
to address the North Korean issue more effectively, stated
US
displeasure over heightened tensions with
Taiwan
and made a personal statement about limitations on religious
freedom in
China
. Overall, the
Asia
visit was a step towards regaining lost diplomatic space by the
US
in the last few years.
Braving
bombs and bullets the people of have voted. Candidates, voters
and countless Iraqi security officers have risked life and limb
to ensure the success of the elections. The editorial team
congratulates the people of
Iraq
for
this great achievement and offers condolences to the kin of
those who gave their lives to make this happen. Though other
external observers may take a less charitable view, the
elections in
Iraq
have
given the
US
led
Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) much needed political
space. The attention is now focused on the new Iraqi government
under President Jalal Talabani and the process of negotiation
between the Shia, Sunni and Kurdish factions in
Iraq
takes
the spotlight off the CPA itself. The CPA however could not rest
easily on its laurels, for barely had the elections ended,
trouble was just literally around the corner. In a tragic case
of friendly fire, a highly respected Italian intelligence
officer, Nicolo Calipari was killed by US troops in
Baghdad
.
Calipari had just successfully negotiated the release of the
Italian hostage, Giuliana Sgrena, a reporter for the leftist
newspaper Il Manifesto. The news of Calipari's murder by US
troops served to focus anti-war sentiment in
Italy
and
considerable anger was also directed at President Silvio
Berlusconi. In a bid to keep political pressure to manageable
levels, Prime Minister Berlusconi had to announce the withdrawal
of Italian troops from
Iraq
. Though
Italy
still
remains a part of the war on terror, the loss of
Italy
in
Iraq
will be
felt. At the very least, the inability to safely engage in
independent hostage negotiations will give other nations pause
when contemplating joining a multinational effort in
Iraq
. It must
be borne in mind that the minority Sunnis constituted a
disproportionately large portion of Saddam Hussein's regime and
they opposed the elections. It should come as no surprise then
that the majority Shia population were keen to see the CPA's
electoral process succeed. The intensity of the relentless
suicide bombings on Shia places of worship speak to the
sectarian strife that simmers below the surface. This is going
to make the process of negotiation alluded to earlier extremely
difficult and the price of delay will be measured in blood. The
US
probably
shares some fraction of the Sunni concern over a possible Shia
dominance over
Iraq
, however
an over enthusiastic approach seems fraught with the possibility
of blowback. On a related note, the revolution in
Lebanon
has
effectively contested
Syria
's
influence over the financially powerful Maronite community. This
could in theory open several political questions in
Syria
itself.
Though neo- conservative thinkers see this as a cautious spread
of democratic values from
Iraq
, one
wonders if there is a real understanding of what shape a
"Post-Assad"
Syria
may
take. Indeed one could not but agree that
"Post-Saddam"
Iraq
proved
quite a handful.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao
and an entourage of a hundred delegates visited India in April,
highlighting his four-nation tour of the Subcontinent. Premier
Wen Jiabao first visited India in 1994 as head of an
international liaison department of the Communist Party of
China. The current
visit was not only intended to greet India’s political leaders
but survey its economic landscape.
It seemed clear that the Premier was intent to focus on
potential Sino – India economic cooperation. In this vein, he
visited the city of Bangalore, India’s corporate giant Tata
Consultancy Services, telecom giant Huawei Technology's R&D
centre, the Indian Institute of Sciences, and the Indian Space
Research Organization. Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh and Premier Jiabao exchanged views on
the border and emphasized a willingness to agree on an
acceptable and fair solution by the Joint Working Group.
Furthermore, India reiterated that Tibet Autonomous Region was
an integral part of China while China reciprocated by declaring
Sikkim as clearly demarcated within Indian territory.
However, questions linger about the Aksai Chin are and
Arunachal Pradesh and the resolution of these boundaries will
mark beginning of a mutually beneficial relationship with China.
Prior to departing for Beijing, the premier addressed hundreds
of students at Dogra Hall at India Institute of Technology in
Delhi and stated that, "India and China are not competitors
but can complement each other and work toward an Asian
century."
The editorial team extends
it heartfelt condolences at the passing of Pope John Paul II on
April 2, 2005. The
passing drew to a close 28 years of papacy, one of the longest
in this century. His
reign witnessed significant events in human history from the end
of communism and the Cold War to the uncertainty of the
post-Cold War era. On April 19, 2005, wisps of white smoke and
bells announced an end to the deliberation of the College of
Cardinals. Cardinal
John Ratzinger a confidant of the Pope John Paul II and in
charge of Congregation for the
Doctrine of Faith was elected Pope Benedict XVI.
We congratulate Pope Benedict XVI and wish him every
success in spiritually leading the worldwide congregation of a
billion Catholics through the challenges of faith.
Cover Image: Reuters /
Amiruddin Mughal
|