Unraveling the Chinese Checkers
Capt.
(r) Bharat Verma
With
Premier Wen Jiabao’s recent visit to
India
,
New Delhi
needs to conduct an honest appraisal of the basic Chinese
characteristics and compare them with ours. On one hand, this
ruthless evaluation of plus and minuses of both, will enable
New Delhi
to evolve a long term strategy to deal with the emerging threats
posed by the Chinese proxies on our periphery.
On the other, we can simultaneously plug into each
other’s market to reap huge mutual benefits as
India
and
China
continue to emerge as the core group that powers the
unprecedented economic boom in
Asia
.
China
is a non-status quo power in terms of territory, power and
influence and
India
, a non-status quo power in terms of status, power and influence
by virtue of their belief in their centrality. Whereas the
Indian centrality is of mind, the Chinese centrality is of
material possessions including acquisition of fresh territory.
Thus, history is witness to China’s expansionist agenda in
forcible occupation of Tibet while India after liberating East
Pakistan from the tyranny of Islamabad, withdrew its forces
handing over the territory to create an independent sovereign
nation. Hence, it stands to reason that incase
India
is ever found militarily weak;
China
’s imperial territorial ambitions will overwhelm
India
. The forerunner of such a scenario was observed recently when a
calibrated campaign was orchestrated through state blessed
demonstrations by
Beijing
against
Japan
!. However, the reverse would not be true in case
Beijing
’s hold ever weakened over its far-flung territories.
Therefore, while
New Delhi
resolves amicably the boundary disputes and dialogues on other
beneficial aspects of the burgeoning Sino-Indian relationship,
its continued neglect of the military power will prove fatal in
long term.
Integral
to the Chinese statecraft is the belief that there are no
friendly foreign powers – either they are hostile or
subordinate.
Pakistan
,
Myanmar
, and
North Korea
are subordinates who need to be protected with economic,
diplomatic and military support as they sub-serve the Chinese
policy objectives. Embroiling them in their regional vicinity by
arming them against neighbors shores up the credibility of
Beijing
’s supremacy as the top dog in
Asia
. This policy is a direct derivative of
China
’s strategic tradition of comprehensive national power that
primarily consists of cultural, economic, organizational and
military superiority. To create a favorable Balance of Power it
uses in integrated fashion economic capability, coercion and
deception, need based shifting of alliances, and use of force.
Beijing
joined up with
Washington
during the Nixon era in egging
Pakistan
to destabilize
India
. However in the current geo-political scenario where rising
China intends replacing American influence in Asia-Pacific and
after Washington termed it as a strategic competitor, Beijing is
shifting gear by aligning with India and Russia to counter
balance American unilateralist approach.
But on another strategic dimension it continues to
surround and weaken
India
.
Even
as
China
and
India
move to resolve the boundary dispute,
Beijing
is intelligently creating surrogates with anti-India tilt on our
land borders. The big picture runs from West to East and
consists of
Pakistan
,
Nepal
,
Bangladesh
and
Myanmar
on our periphery. There is an active Kamtapuri movement underway
to carve an independent state in the narrow Siliguri corridor
(i.e. 21 to 60 kms wide and 200 kms long), which if it succeeds
can help
Beijing
unravel the entire northeast and take over
Bhutan
. Simultaneously
Beijing
is not only lavishing funds on its Navy but also acquiring naval
base facilities in Gwadar port in
Pakistan
and
Chittagong
port in
Bangladesh
. This will facilitate inroads into the
Arabian Sea
and the
Bay of Bengal
. To allow oil tankers from
West Asia
to bypass
Malacca
Strait
, it is negotiating with
Thailand
to carve an Asian Panama Canal through the Thai isthmus.
China
has already helped build several ports, roads and rail links
from the Chinese
province
of
Yunnan
to the
Bay of Bengal
, and a listening post on
Myanmar
’s
Coco
Islands
to monitor sea traffic. Therefore even as the Chinese Premier
discusses friendship with
New Delhi
on his visit,
Beijing
is making sure that turmoil on
India
’s land frontiers remains intact and the Chinese naval basis
surrounding
India
with the help of its surrogates act as an adequate drag to
further slow down
New Delhi
’s rise as a global power.
However,
India
’s belief thus far, in centrality of mind (unlike
China
’ s centrality based on territory) inhibits
India
to accord a natural primacy to military power in the scheme of
things to expand its influences. Though foreign policy of a
nation is a means and not an end itself, unfortunately this
centrality of mind makes us pretend that diplomacy by itself is
adequate to meet the security challenges posed by adversaries.
Without sufficient economic and military strength and a shrewd
game plan no foreign policy objectives of peaceful neighborhood
can be achieved. New
Delhi needs to be ruthless in conducting covert operations to
ensure governments in our vicinity refrain from indulging in
unfriendly acts, prioritize rapid modernization of our armed
forces to expand our benevolent influences such that it lends
stability to the region, create strong economic and military
alliances within Asia to counter-balance nations and forces that
can be inimical to us while seeking simultaneously, the
resolution of boundary dispute, economic inter-connectivity with
China and ability to act in concert where it furthers our
national interests.
EU
to Empower Chinese Military
Bangalore’s
biennial Aero India show has started attracting the American,
Russian, Israeli, French, and the British companies in a big
way. However, the developments taking place in our vicinity pose
a grave challenge to
India
’s supremacy in military aviation sector in
Asia
. European Union alarmed with a large growing trade deficit with
China
is keen to lift the ban on sales of weapons immediately. In
particular,
Germany
,
Italy
and
France
are lobbying hard with
Washington
to remove the embargo imposed on transfer of military
technology. This appears to be the only method to correct the
trade imbalance with the Asian giant. So far, the
United States
has successfully stalled such attempts by threatening to limit
its own military technological transfer to NATO incase EU
unilaterally lifts the ban. However, the ban is more than likely
to be removed by 2008, once George Bush demits office. This in
turn, to maintain strategic parity will force
India
to invest heavily in upgrades and modernization of its military
technology.
To
emerge as the unchallenged military power in
Asia
and to replace American influence in
Asia-Pacific
,
China
’s defense budget increases every year by ten to fifteen
percent. In 2005 official figures stood at almost 30 billions
dollars and the unofficial estimates at another 30 billion,
making it the largest weapons and armament procurement program
in
Asia
. However
China
’s plans for military modernization have hit a roadblock due
to the embargo placed by
America
and NATO countries on military hardware supplies.
French
objective in the words of President Chirac while speaking in
Hong Kong in October 2004 were stated to be “ the relations
and links between the EU and China are destined to grow, and in
my view, the EU is destined to become the leading customer, the
leading supplier, and first partner of China” Implicit in
these word is the fact that EU has serious concerns over trade
deficit and resumption of military supplies is a way out to
strike a balance. Military technical cooperation also promotes
sales of high-tech civil products as an offshoot. Therefore it
is quite a win-win situation for both, the Europeans and as well
as the Chinese. For Europeans the Chinese market has preference
even though the Indian aviation market is as big on two counts.
First within
India
, there is a tough competition between
Russia
,
Europe
,
Israel
and off late, the
United States
. Second, on one hand, the Chinese market is easy to enter as
United States
refuses to sell as it considers
Beijing
a strategic competitor and also a threat to
Taiwan
. Therefore, an easy to enter market that ultimately will extend
to its close ally
Pakistan
, making it the largest in
Asia
. This deal will be similar in reverse order where technology
transferred via latest proposed F-16 aircrafts to
Pakistan
by
America
will traverse covertly to
China
!
Earlier
Russia
was gradually arming
China
with transfer of modern and sensitive technology. However, the
situation is constantly under review with Putin taking over as
President.
China
maybe denied supplies of airborne radars with phased array,
heavy supersonic anti-ship missiles, nuclear submarine building
technologies and a host of other weapons. Moreover, military
aircraft supplied to
China
from
Russia
are designed in such way that makes it impossible to equip them
with European weapons and radars while upgrading them. Naturally
Beijing
is irritated by the fact that
India
,
Malaysia
and
Thailand
are not encountering such problems.
Beijing
is also dissatisfied that Chinese designers unlike the Indian
ones are barred from working on joint projects with their
Russian counterparts. Therefore, for
Beijing
it is vital that it leverages the only willing suppliers of
modern technologies – the Europeans. Similarly for EU to
correct the trade imbalances with
China
and to take advantage of the largest emerging market in
Asia
, it is imperative that they agree to supply most modern weapon
technologies to
China
.
There
is a persistent belief that electronic items and dual-purpose
technologies will be a major trade off with
China
. It is reported that
France
,
Italy
and
Germany
have already firmed up supplies of electronic radar and
electronic weapon control systems to
China
despite the ban.
Beijing
also aims at acquiring Rafale Fighters. Unless and until 5th
generation fighters are inducted in large numbers in the USAF,
Rafale with
China
could prove a serious adversary for the
US
, incase latter wants to assist
Taiwan
in conflict resolution with the mainland. In return,
China
will open up to European aviation technologies and assist the EU
to win global tenders against Boeing.
Beijing
therefore is quite amenable to let EU Airbus capture 60 percent
of the Chinese commercial aviation market – a position
presently held by Boeing. Airbus has already secured last year
78 orders in this fastest growing commercial airliner market in
the world.
Therefore,
a status quo power like
India
needs to review its strategy and equip itself with a superior
firepower rapidly. This is particularly true if
New Delhi
wants to talk as an equal with
Beijing
. A weak
India
and a strong authoritarian
China
with a history of territorial expansion as a basic
characteristic will always remain a threat. Therefore even as we
work out together an economic inter-connectivity in
Asia
, a militarily strong
China
will require a sufficient counter-balance in terms of military
power for the economic relationship to fructify in a congenial
atmosphere of stability.
This
article first appeared in the Indian Defence Review Volume 20-1,
Jan- Mar 05 and has been reproduced here with the permission of
the editor. The author is the editor of the Indian Defence
Review.
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