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Pakistan
: Reconciling with
Ground Realities
Abhijit
Thambe
Ever since independence, the Pakistani establishment has nurtured two
articles of faith amongst its masses: First, Pakistan would
wrest Kashmir from India via a military victory, if not through
negotiations; Second, Pakistan was destined for great
achievements and a greater role, both in the Indian
subcontinent, and in the international community., In contrast,
the Pakistanis believed firmly that India was destined to
mediocrity at best, and balkanization at worst. Such Pakistani
beliefs were motivated by concepts of racial superiority of the
Pakistanis over the Indians, along with the notion that their
God was on the side of the believer rather than of the infidel.
This was fuelled further by the British policy of nurturing
so-called ‘martial races’, a number of whom came from
regions of
West Pakistan
. The disdain for the
supposed ‘inferiority’ of the Bengalis within Pakistan can
also be traced to this racist concept --- this disdain was also
the root cause of the genocide of Bengalis in East Pakistani by
the Pakistani Army, which in turn triggered the 1971 war with
India. As a result, the prevailing conventional wisdom, in
Pakistan
and the rest of the
world in the latter half of the twentieth century, was that
Pakistan
was destined for
greatness, while
India
was doomed to failure
and balkanization.
This notion of Pakistan as a potential great power survived
through the ups and downs of Pakistan’s history --- even the
spectacular loss to India in the 1971 war could not completely
destroy this article of faith for Pakistanis. However, there has
been a significant change in the recent past in the attitudes of
Pakistanis, if the views espoused in the Pakistani
English-language press is a credible indicator. There seems to
be growing recognition in
Pakistan
that, over the course
of the last 57 years after independence, things have gone
terribly wrong with their country and its polity.
Pakistan
has sold its
sovereignty to outside powers, while the military establishment
of
Pakistan
has repeatedly taken
measures to ensure that democracy does not take root in
Pakistan
. Today,
Pakistan
is a dictatorship with
massive and growing illiteracy, growing poverty, huge
unemployment, and a proliferation of armed groups responsible
for rampant violent sectarianism in Pakistani society. The
country has been made a haven for terrorists of every hue and
color, and is recognized as such by the rest of the world.
Why are more and more Pakistani columnists ‘throwing in the
towel’, so to speak? One of the tools used by the Pakistani
establishment in the past has been the tight control it has kept
over the media. This had allowed even stark defeats to be
painted as victories --- in the absence of any other source of
information, such officially sanctioned misinformation was
believed widely and internalized by the Pakistani polity. But
with the explosive growth of the Internet in the past decade,
and the associated proliferation of internet media sources, the
Pakistani Army is unable to wield control on Pakistani media any
longer. As a result of this fundamental change in the nature of
information flow into and out of
Pakistan
, Pakistani officialdom
has been unable to use state-run media channels to suppress the
truth about Pakistani society and culture. As a result, an
increasing number of Pakistani columnists, expatriates, and
journalists are able to disseminate information about the ground
realities within
Pakistan
, even under the threat
of retaliation by the Pakistani Army, which has not relinquished
its desire to control Pakistani media.
In the last few months, there has been a spate of articles,
columns and letters to the editors in Pakistani online English
publications that essentially throw in the towel on Pakistan’s
future – the authors of these articles seem to recognize two
stark realities with respect to India and Kashmir: First,
Pakistan is simply not capable of wresting Kashmir from India
with force, or in other words, 'there is no military solution
to Kashmir'. A corollary of this truth is also realized by a
minority of Pakistanis that what could not be won militarily
from
India
, can never be won
over the negotiating table,
thereby facing the bitter truth that
Pakistan
cannot acquire
Kashmir
via peace talks with
India
. Second,
India
is inexorably and
unstoppably pulling ahead, and is more focused on economically
competing with
China
than
Pakistan
, while
Pakistan
is stuck in the morass
of poverty, illiteracy, unemployment, political instability,
fundamentalism, sectarian divide, and is actually regressing on
all fronts. In other words, 'the grass is truly and visibly
greener on the other side of the border' for some Pakistani
commentators today. These realizations among such Pakistanis,
and the reasons behind such a change in mindset, are analyzed in
detail below.
'There is no military solution to Kashmir’:
Pakistan
has fought four wars
with
India
of which three wars
were for
Kashmir
(1948, 1965, and 1999
in Kargil). In 1948,
Pakistan
’s marauding tribal
hordes and its army occupied a part of Indian Jammu and
Kashmir
state but it fell far
short of its ultimate objective of wresting the entire J & K
from
India
. In the 1965 war,
Pakistan
could not achieve its
objective of wresting
Kashmir
, and in fact, it had to
concentrate on saving major cities like
Lahore
and
Sialkot
from falling into
Indian hands. During the 1971 war, the Pakistani army was
comprehensively defeated and ended up with 90,000 of its
soldiers as Indian Prisoners of War.
Pakistan
also lost half its
territory when
Bangladesh
(erstwhile
East Pakistan
) declared independence.
In 1999, the Pakistani Army indulged in a miltary misadventure
in Kargil under the leadership of Army Chief Pervez Musharraf,
and in response, the Indian armed forces dealt a decisive blow
to the Pakistani military, which pushed Pakistani Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif to request the Clinton Administration to provide
the Pakistanis with an ‘honorable exit’ in spite of huge
pakistani losses (former Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif has estimated
at least 3000 Pakistani soldiers lost in Kargil). Thus, in spite
of four military adventures,
Pakistan
has not been able to
wrest any
Indian Territory
but has lost a
significant portion of Pakistani territory instead. In every
successive war,
Pakistan
’s position became
weaker than in the previous one. The wars proved that
India
enjoyed a conventional
superiority and
Pakistan
’s nuclear assets were
of no use in a conventional conflict. Thus, the Pakistanis seem
to have have realized that their country is not in a position to
inflict a military solution to its
Kashmir
dream. In the words of
Nazir Naji, a reputed Pakistani columnist [i]
,
“We went
to war in 1965 to resolve the
Kashmir
issue. We followed it up with an agreement in
Tashkent
not to fight again. We lost a war in 1971 and agreed to resolve
the
Kashmir
dispute bilaterally. Then we opened the Kargil front and had to
sign the
Washington
declaration subscribing to the sanctity of the Line of Control.
After supporting armed struggle for independence for fifteen
years we agreed also to disallow ‘cross-border terrorism’
and facilitated
India
in fencing the LOC.”
Also, it has finally dawned on Pakistanis that no other country,
China
or
America
, is going to help
them achieve their geopolitical dreams. The world is simply not
interested or strong enough to force
India
to do anything against the wishes of
India
's billion people. Also,
there is a realization that
India
is fast approaching a stage where the so-called conventional parity
between the two will be a distant footnote in history. In a
matter of a decade
India
's defense budget could
surpass the entire GDP of Pakistan. There is recognition that
the world is not in the mood to tolerate any adventurism by
Pakistan
, and hence there is
virtually no chance of altering the status-quo.
In the post 9/11 world,
Pakistan
’s strategy of
bleeding
India
through a thousand cuts
has become untenable.
Pakistan
supported the terror
campaign in
Punjab
in the 1980s by
supplying arms, finances and training to terrorists. Since 1989,
Pakistan
’s ISI (“Inter
Services Intelligence”,
Pakistan
’s main intelligence
agency) indulged in a Jihad in
Jammu and Kashmir
using its foreign mujahideen and madrassa-trained fighters to launch
and sustain a terror campaign in the state. Thousands of
innocent Indian lives were lost to the bullets and bombs of ISI-controlled
terrorists. But simultaneously Pakistani society became poisoned
with the Jihad culture and its concomitant problems such as
sectarian killings, drug culture, high degree of lawlessness and
worst of all, a highly negative image of
Pakistan
in the eyes of the
whole world. After 9/11 and following the spectacular successes
of Indian forces against these fighters,
Pakistan
had to shut off its
valve of terror in J & K. This option is not open to
Pakistani strategic planners anymore.
In summary, Pakistanis have realized that they have no cards
left to play and
Kashmir
is as far away from
their clutches as it ever was. Meanwhile, the polity of
Pakistan
has been viciously
hijacked by its military that has grown rich while keeping the
‘awam’ (Urdu word for masses) in wretched poverty.
Consequently, in spite of precious little progress on the
supposed ‘core issue’ of
Kashmir
in the talks between
India
and
Pakistan
, there is not much
bellicosity to be found in Pakistani media. To the contrary, for
the first time in the Pakistani press, commentators such as M B
Naqvi seem to be ready to accept the status quo [ii],
“The net
outcome of the talks so far is that no
Kashmir
solution is available that replaces
India
's sovereignty over the
Kashmir
territories with something better.
Pakistan
cannot go out and conquer
Kashmir
; that makes war out of the question... (The second Option) is
to change the nature of Indo-Pakistan relationship after making
a settlement on
Kashmir
on terms that are acceptable to
India
. MQM Chief Altaf Hussain's proposal to accept the LOC as the
border may be painful if stated baldly. But it is realistic and
is based on the only basis that will be acceptable to
India
”.
Again in the words of MB Naqvi [iii]
,
“
Pakistan
cannot wrest
Kashmir
from
India
. It has no option but to live with the territorial status quo,
however painful.”
Thus,
a host of factors have prompted a slew of columns/articles that
question the wisdom of
Pakistan’s
Kashmir
policy and even gently
nudge the pakistani establishment to accept the status quo.
The grass is really greener on the other side of the border:
This realization is a culmination of several factors (economic
and political) spread over several years. Each factor
essentially contrasts the stellar performance of
India
vis-à-vis
Pakistan
's abject failures.
Indian Elections - A triumph of democracy: In 2004,
India
, the largest democracy
in the world, conducted its completely transparent, free and
fair general elections. The ruling coalition – the National
Democratic Alliance (NDA) - failed to secure a majority and a
Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition came to
power. The outgoing Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee gracefully
handed over the reigns of power, and the ruling UPA coalition
named Dr Manmohan Singh, an economist of worldwide repute as the
new Prime Minister. Pakistanis could only marvel at such an
orderly and rancor-less transition of power and could not help
but contrast it against the sometimes bloody and always illegal
transitions of power that have characterized Pakistani politics.
The fact that there has not been even a single lawful transfer
of power in
Pakistan
since independence
could not have escaped the Pakistani commentators. Ms Sherry
Rehman, a senator in Pakistani senate commented , [iv]
"In
the history of Pakistan's chequered experience with democracy,
only the epochal 1970 election has been held as free and fair.
In
India
, however, the
democratic process has taken a different trajectory, which has
allowed its institutions to slowly develop their independence
and credibility by strengthening each other. In this entire
process of evolution over 57 years, Indian democracy has relied
on its courts, its election commission and its military to play
by the rules as established by its constitution."
The UN requested the Election Commission of India to help UN
conduct elections in
Iraq
and
Afghanistan
. Mr. Farrukh Saleem, a
reputed Pakistani columnist and a PPP politician stated, [v]
“The
UN's request is a great tribute to
India
's democracy ...Why the Election Commission of
India
and not the Election Commission of
Pakistan
? The answer ... definitely lies less in mere statistics and
more in the "genuineness" of elections".
Indian
economy and IT juggernaut:
India
's phenomenal progress
in the world of information technology (IT) and Business Process
Outsourcing (BPO) has captured the attention of the whole world.
Pakistanis have only a sense of wonder and loss at the inability
of
Pakistan
to match
India
in this respect. Again
Farrukh Saleem states, [vi]
"Pepsi,
Ford, IBM, Citibank, Kodak, Coca Cola, Microsoft, Motorola, ...,
Ernst & Young and Price Waterhouse with offices in Mumbai,
Delhi, Bangalore,
Hyderabad
and Chennai are hiring Indians by the thousands. US corporate
giants are now dependent on Tata Consultancy, Infosys
Technologies, Wipro, Satyam Computer Services, HCL Technologies,
Patni Computer Systems, Silverline Technologies, Mahindra,
Pentasoft, Mascot, Mascom, Mastek, Polaris, L&T and Hexaware
(all Indian software giants). All we are left with is our bomb.
Hope is the key. Bomb isn't."
Overall
progress:
India
has not only made great
strides in the sphere of economics but on other fronts too. The
law and order situation is conspicuously better, Indian local
Governments in cities like
Delhi
have successfully
tackled environmental issues,
India
has emerged as one of the top 5 tourist destinations, etc. Following
the normalization of relations and a cricket series between
India
and
Pakistan
, a large number of
Pakistanis have visited
India
and have returned with
a sense of wonder and admiration. Kamran Shafi, a famous
Pakistani columnist and ex-politician notes, [vii]
“You
should see today's Delhi! It is a thriving city, hotels full to brimming with foreigners
-- tourists, investors, importers, journalists; its shops have
undergone a sea change in the three years that I was there last,
now looking (and feeling) like shops in any of the great
capitals of the world….
India
may not be 'shining' but it is certainly rising with every
passing day. And where are we? Wallowing in self-pity; angry
with the world; twisted in mind and spirit, looking for
scapegoats for our own national failings. We've got to pull our
fingers out if we are to get anywhere at all, and fast. We've
missed the past few boats, could we please catch the next one
that might happen along?”
Indian clout in American corridors of power: The Indian
Diaspora’s phenomenal success in business and the professions
overseas and in particular in
America
, and its consequent
clout in the American corridors of power has also left
Pakistanis with a sense of helpless rage. The Indian caucus on
Washington
’s Capitol Hill has a very large number of members; several
influential Senators and Congressmen are part of this caucus and
the membership is growing. Dr Farrukh Saleem noted in a 2002
article, [viii]
“The India
Caucus now has a total of 111 representatives/ Congressmen as
its members. That’s 25 per cent of the entire strength of the
House of Representatives. Prominent among them include Gerry
Ackerman, Ben Gilman, Richard Gephardt, Frank Pallone, Tom
Lantos and Jim McDemott. Furthermore, out of the four-dozen
Congressmen who sit on the House’s International Relations
Committee some two-dozen are also members of the Congressional
Caucus on
India
and Indian-Americans. Prominent among them include
Berkley
, Blumenauer, Brown, Chabot,
Crowley
,
Davis
, Engel, Hoeffel and Lee. India, as a consequence, has a lot of
voices as well as a whole lot of votes going for her. … The
Pak American Congress did manage to recruit Senators Tim Johnson
and Robert Torricelli. Representatives David Bonior and Joseph
Pitt did launch the
Kashmir
Caucus but the Caucus is yet to find direction. … In Washington, we are no match for the Indians. “
But perhaps
more significant than all these individual reasons is the sense
of direction and confidence that many prominent Pakistanis have
observed in
India
and its polity, which
is conspicuously absent in
Pakistan
. In the words of
Pakistan
’s greatest cricket
legend Imran Khan, [ix]
“As a
cricketer I toured
India
several times between 1977 to 1989 and I felt that it was a
country going nowhere, with its highly centralized and over-bureaucratised
inefficient governance system. I had never seen such poverty
anywhere in the world. The infrastructure was decaying and
Delhi
and
Calcutta
were so polluted that playing cricket there was not a pleasant
experience. Compared to
India
,
Pakistan
looked a developed country. Our economic growth rate and per
capita income had been higher for the previous four decades.
Though Pakistanis were crazy about Indian films, our television
was far superior, and we would thrash them regularly at hockey,
squash and cricket despite being seven times smaller… In the
last year my two visits to
India
have come as a bit of a shock.
India
has overtaken
Pakistan
in per capita income while its economy is growing robustly at
eight per cent. Delhi is being cleaned up, while
Bombay
is one of the most expensive real estates in the world. Poverty
is decreasing. But above all and what is most striking is the
growing self-belief of Indians… (the) Indians see themselves
as a future superpower, as, indeed, does the world. They view
their future with optimism and hope…. In stark contrast, since
the '90s
Pakistan
has been going around in circles and heading nowhere. Our
institutions and our democracy are sadly in an advanced state of
decay.”
Similar
to Elizabeth Kubler-Ross's five stages of dealing with
death/grief, Pakistanis seem to be going through the stages of
denial, anger, bargaining, depression and finally acceptance of
these two truths about
Kashmir
and
India
. It won’t be long
before a large section of Pakistani society, especially its
business class and intelligentsia start questioning the very
rationale behind the two-nation theory, like the Mohajir leader,
Altaf Hussain, recently did. Such ideas that challenge the very
basis of Pakistani society and its Islamic identity can have
unpredictable consequences. It would be naive to think that such
attitudes espoused by a few could change the Pakistani national
psyche dramatically, since the indoctrination of the past few
decades cannot be negated easily without sustained, long-term
public support from Pakistanis and Pakistani leadership. .
Nonetheless, it would be wrong to summarily dismiss these changed
perceptions of many prominent Pakistanis as just flashes in the
pan.
Admittedly, such progressive views in
Pakistan
only comprise a
minority of the views espoused in the Pakistani English media,
even as we have ignored the prolific vernacular press in this
analysis – the Pakistani Urdu press boasts significantly
higher readership than the English press. Pakistan’s overall
low literacy rates indicates that even the readership of the
Urdu Press in Pakistan constitutes a very small percentage of
the Pakistani population, indicating that much of the Pakistani
public receives all of its news by word of mouth or other means
not involving reading. Thus, progressive Pakistani views
detailed earlier in this article may not be representative of
the vast unlettered masses at present. But this stream of
thought, a trickle as it may be at the moment, is worth
watching, since such points of view, if they gain popular
acceptance, will have profound consequences for India, Pakistan,
and the entire region.
References
and Footnotes
[i]http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_10-1-2005_pg3_3
(DailyTimes 1-10-2005)
[ii]http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/dec2004-daily/01-12-2004/oped/o1.htm
(The News, Jang, 12-01-2004)
[iii]http://jang.com.pk/thenews/jan2005-daily/05-01-2005/oped/o5.htm
(The News, Jang, 1-05-2005)
[iv]http://www.dawn.com/2004/09/17/op.htm#3
(Dawn, 9-17-2004)
[v]http://www.jang-group.com/thenews/sep2004-daily/12-09-2004/oped/o4.htm
(The News, Jang, 9-12-2004)
[vi]http://jang.com.pk/thenews/sep2003-daily/07-09-2003/oped/o5.htm
(The News, Jang, 9-07-2003)
[vii]http://jang.com.pk/thenews/dec2004-daily/17-12-2004/oped/o2.htm
(The News, Jang, 12-17-2004)
[viii]http://www.mid-day.com/news/world/2002/august/28630.htm
(Mid-day 8-10-2002)
[ix]http://www.hindustantimes.com/2004/Dec/02/5983_1133426,00430005.htm
(Hindustan Times, 12-2-2004)
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