Asia in a Tailspin

Capt. (r) Bharat Verma

It is almost certain that not President Bush, but Saddam Huessin will have the last laugh in Iraq. Today Islamic radicals from world over hone their skills in Jehad at the cost of the most modern military in the world. Chinks in the American power stand exposed. Without dedicated, highly motivated and well-trained manpower, the hi-tech equipment alone in a ground war is not an insurance against defeat. Similarly, to convert under false pretext, a secular state like Iraq into the biggest battlefield for the Islamic terrorists spells a grave failure of neo-conservatives’ politico-military doctrine. Challenges posed by Islamic guerrillas in Iraq expose the myth of invincible American military might. Worse the impact of Bush Administration’s follies threatens to destabilize Asian countries. In particular, this negative fallout adds to democratic India’s burden as a multi-cultural society.

If one minutely examines India’s extended neighborhood, there is sufficient cause for New Delhi to be alarmed at the adverse security scenario developing all around. In the West, Iraq is almost becoming a black hole. Neither the Coalition of the Willing nor the provisional Iraq authority is in control of the situation. Oil pipelines are blown up at will by terrorists, hundreds of innocents are getting killed or maimed, and the security forces led by the Americans are at their wits end. All the firepower at command backed by the most dazzling weaponry is proving to be incapable of matching the Jehadi motivation of “ you want to live but I am willing to die.” In this manpower-intensive war, terrorists rule the roost. While unacceptable, their new technique of beheading hostages is the most horrendous blackmail ever for the powers in occupation of Iraq. This in turn has resulted in public demand back home to withdraw the forces. The temptation to exit will force Iraq into a major civil strife -bloodbath is likely to increase on transfer of power.

These emerging contours point to an unstable West Asia. The Islamic governments there face direct threat of being uprooted as fundamentalists plan to take over what they consider as puppet regimes installed by the West. Emboldened by the over-stretch of American forces and the critical divide that exists between the international community and the White House, Islamic terrorists have extended their operations into Saudi Arabia. This is ironic, as Riyadh was the first to fund export of extreme form of Wahabism. Therefore, the raging fundamentalist fire could engulf West Asia with ease. With crises looming large in West Asia, India’s energy security and the economic growth is likely to face stiff challenge, incase the unfolding scenario is not firmly contained and reversed.

Moreover, as we try to smoke the peace pipe with Pakistan, trouble within that nation is brewing. It is Islamists versus the Pakistan military. An unprecedented countrywide law and order breakdown in June left 200 dead in attacks across the country by Al-Qaeda, sectarian extremists and ethnic nationalists. Attack on convoy of the Karachi Corps Commander, skirmishes in Waziristan, uprising in Gilgit, and wave of rocket attacks on major towns in Baluchistan is weakening the hold of military.  Taliban is regaining ground in Afghanistan. Karachi is practically on fire. Aiding and abetting the fundamentalists is the ISI and part of the Pakistani military establishment. Creeping instability within Pakistan and the rising anti-American sentiments, besides poverty and unemployment, raise a fundamental question – if the nukes fall into the wrong hands, what options will India exercise? This poses a direct danger to us. Hence, the Service Headquarters need to work out contingency plans well in advance, to meet such an eventuality, as a distinct possibility exists. Especially since forty percent of the military there is suspect of being in cahoots with the Jehad Factory. Spread of instability in Pakistan-Afghanistan will affect Central Asia from where our rising energy requirements will be met in future. If United States had concentrated its military power in area comprising Afghanistan and Pakistan instead of diversion to Iraq, overall terrorist activities in Asia would today stand sufficiently curtailed. Unfortunately it did not due to personal agenda of President Bush. This will leave many nations in Asia in a lurch as they try to cope with the onslaught of Jehadi fire fanned by unilateral illegal action in Iraq.

If one looks east it will be observed that ISI is clandestinely shifting base to Bangladesh. Besides the on going creeping invasion from Bangladesh into Assam, West Bengal and the North East, Islamic terrorism is being exported to Myanmar, Southern Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, Philippines and Sri Lanka. This in times to come will threaten stability in South East Asia as well pose new security challenge to India on its Southern flanks. Bangladesh with the help of ISI and Indonesia with entrenched JI work on hub and spoke principle to ultimately intimidate legitimate governments in South East Asia.

The unilateral action in Iraq by the United States shifted the focus from War Against Terrorism launched by it post 9/11. The consequence of this unwise action has put the Asian stability in a tailspin. Powered by the growth engines of China and India, Asia is the emerging geo-economic hub of the world in the present Century. Hence, stakes of other world powers in the stability of Asia to reap economic benefits are as vital as that of India and China. On the other hand, unilateral action by a single power cannot douse the spreading fire in the name of Jehad. Therefore, War Against Terrorism needs the multilateral forum offered by India, Russia, China and the European Union, which America must join, and support to contain and finally eliminate this monster that recognizes no international boundaries.

The writer is the editor of the India Defence Review and this piece has been carried here with his permission.