Cost
Pakistan Incurred to Build the Nuclear Bomb
Hari Sud
Cost
of building the Pakistani Nuclear Bomb, since
Zulfikaar Ali Bhutto initiated the program in
1974, has been variously estimated. Some experts
have put the cost at $10 to $25 Billion dollars.
Others estimate it as at low as $5.5 Billion. It
is hard to pin down the costs as most of the Bomb
making costs from 1974 till the 1989 cold test,
have been deliberately disguised.
In
the absence of any data, various peace groups,
government agencies, and leaks in the various
newspapers have attempted to estimate these costs.
These estimates have served their purpose.
American do not wish every country in the
world to attempt building nuclear bombs, hence
they suggest prohibitive costs. Present day
dictators wish to challenge the super powers,
hence embark upon this program to give himself or
herself, parity with the super powers hence ignore
costs at the expense of economic development.
How
did the Pakistanis Begin?
Zulfikaar
Ali Bhutto had difficulty finding enough
physicists to form a core group to build a bomb in
1974. Initial main focus was to copy India in
building Plutonium type implosion device that
India had just exploded. The focus immediately
shifted to using Uranium-235 with the arrival of
stolen plans from Holland. Although work on the
former was not completely stopped but the main
focus shifted to enriching Uranium to weapon’s
grade U-235. The Dutch plans put Pakistan far
ahead in technology and costs. The big part of the
costs, which is R & D, came for free. The
latter part of acquiring the components to build
the centrifuge from German, Malaysian and US
sources was much more expensive.
Pakistan took three to four years to digest
the stolen information and cultivate potential
suppliers and middlemen for the supply of parts
and components. Placing of orders began in 1982
and continued till in 1987. This activity was not
missed by the US, but was ignored, as Pakistan was
the base for war in Afghanistan.
How
much did it cost US to build the First Bomb in
1945?
America
started in earnest to build the Bomb in 1942, when
a bunch of émigré nuclear scientists wrote to
President Roosevelt that Germans have achieved a
major breakthrough in splitting the Atom, hence
unleashing untold amount of energy. Concerned
America immediately embarked upon an effort to
outdo the Germans. They attempted various
techniques to separate U-235 from naturally
occurring U-238. These were not very successful.
Reasons – it was all a pioneering effort, never
attempted before, hence was taking longer and
costing more. Gaseous diffusion, electromagnetic
separation and even centrifuging were attempted at
various laboratories with varying success. Still,
not enough U-235 could be produced to set off a
test explosion. The scientists at Los Alamos
explored the alternative route of implosion using
Plutonium core. This attempt was more successful.
The first Bomb test in New Mexico desert in 1945
was an Implosion device. Alternative route of
U-235 also made a better progress with the
commissioning of Calutron at Oakridge, Tenn. By
early 1945, the scientists had managed to separate
enough U-235 for one gun barrel type of nuclear
bomb in which U-235 will be split to release the
energy.
In
this three and half year period the US Congress
appropriated amounts $250 million in the first
year and $500 million in subsequent years to build
the Bomb. In addition, the US Army, which managed
the project and provided security, infrastructure
etc. spent additional $250 million from its
budget. Hence the first three US bombs – the
laboratory model tested in New Mexico, the Little
Boy dropped over (Hiroshima – Gun Barrel, U-235
type) and Fat Man (Plutonium implosion device)
dropped over Nagasaki had cost about $2
Billion.
In
today’s terms (2004), after adjusting for
inflation the cost of building first three Bombs
of America will be about $15 Billion. This does
not include building up of an arsenal later by
USA, which has been estimated to cost $5.8
Trillion over 58 years.
The
Pakistani Bomb Costs
A.
Information we know from the published sources
Aslam
Effendi, a Pakistani analyst writing in “The
News” recently put the cost of building the bomb
in last 20 years (1978 –98) at Rs. 20 Billion.
This translates into about $5.5 Billion after
adjusting for exchange rate. Exclusions and
inclusions have not been stated. The latter may be
the key to whole exercise.
M
Ziauddin, another Pakistani analyst has estimated
the cost of nuclear deterrence against India at
$10 to 15 Billion. This amount probably includes
missiles and 30 or so nuclear bombs. These costs
also include expenditures on command and control
devices.
One
cannot be certain about the reliability of the
sources, which the above analysts have used to
publish their cost estimates. But one goes with
the assumption that official leaks made these
analysts publish this sensitive data. Hence there
is bit of a hidden agenda behind this data.
Analysts are commonly used to inform or
misinform public and enemies about the state
secrets.
B.
Peace Groups Estimates
These
groups wildly estimate costs at $10 to 25 Billion.
But they are pushing their own agenda by
overstating or understating any information. Hence
their estimates are a suspect.
India
has maintained a low-key attitude about discussing
any Atomic Bomb matters. This is quite the
opposite for the exuberant A Q Khan, who started
to talk to the world with his interview in 1988 to
the Indian journalist Kuldip Nayyar and later to
others. He wished to become an immortal in
Pakistani people’s eyes. This he could achieve
only by discussing his successes.
C.
Capping of the Program in early nineties
In
1989 Benazir Bhutto was the Prime Minister and
General Aslam Beg was the all-powerful Chief of
the Military. Together they decided (under
possible US pressure) to cap the Uranium – 235
production. It is not known how much production of
the U-235 (Weapon’s Grade) had been achieved by
that time. But it is certain that sufficient
quantities had been produced to set off a few
bombs. The idled scientists went around the world
selling their technology of centrifuges to Libya,
Iran and North Korea and pocketed some of the
proceeds. Kahuta Research Lab was kept functioning
with monies from the Army and perhaps from illicit
trade.
The
Implosion Device Technology
Pakistan
although went full steam ahead to build the U-235
Centrifuge, but did not abandon the Plutonium
route for the Bomb technology. They kept at it
concurrent to other technological development,
which they were pursuing wholeheartedly. They sent
intelligence operatives and middlemen to purchase
bomb triggers and other components, which were
needed to assemble the Plutonium Bomb. One such
intelligence operative was caught in 1986 in US,
purchasing components and was expelled. But the
Reagan Administration took no further action, as
Pakistan was frontline state in US’s fight with
the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. It is believed
that Pakistan’s interest in Plutonium Bomb has
been revived in last 5 years.
What
Role China Played and How did it get Paid?
It
is common knowledge that the all the Dutch designs
could not be translated into practical operating
machines. In other areas, components could simply
not be procured by clandestine means. Hence, China
was asked and they stepped into the void by
providing the much-needed technical help. Chinese
are known to have helped in perfecting the
Centrifuge and with the initial Bomb design.
Chinese supplied the much older version of the
American Bomb design, which they had stolen in
sixties. Pakistani improved the design and
perfected it into their-own Bomb. Additional help
in perfecting the firing mechanism was also
provided by China.
All
this help did not come for free. Chinese and
Pakistani are silent about it, but it is fair to
assume that China collected details of the Dutch
Centrifuge from the Pakistanis in lieu for their
help. This helped them to improve their own
design. But, helping Pakistan has been of much
greater political value to the Chinese. It kept
India busy on the Western Border.
What
can you Estimate from the Published Data?
- US Cost breakdown
As
stated above, it cost US about $2 Billion to build
the first three bombs in 1945. All the three were
laboratory versions. Hence all costs can be
classified as R & D. But the infrastructure
built to produce the prototypes stayed and has
been used to mass-produce the weapons.
The
above $2 Billion effort, if it is to be duplicated
in 1981 – 89 with current technologies, then it
will cost about $8 Billion. Inflation alone will
quadruple the cost. From this deduct costs for
experimental technologies tried to concentrate
U-235 in 1945, which need not be done now and
adjust for productivity improvement. To this add
infrastructure costs, which were accounted for
elsewhere in the War effort. Hence a Cost of $8
Billion is a reasonable figure. The forgoing $8
Billion is cost estimate if built in America,
based on competitive bidding for contracts and
availability of the trained manpower. Elsewhere
the costs will be higher.
- Let us try and Arrive at Comparable Pakistani
Costs
The
Pakistani bomb builders had no R & D costs
(they stole the technology). The untrained
manpower added to the delay, hence cost (it took
Pakistani engineers four to five years before
procurement specs. could be written). The hardware
cost was phenomenally high; as all deals were
hush-hush deals hence were higher priced. In
addition hefty commissions had to be paid to the
middlemen, followed by multiple trans-shipments to
deceive the ultimate destination of the hardware.
All the forgoing added to the cost.
The
above, if all the pluses and minuses are accounted
for will roughly double the cost of hardware
before it is installed and commissioned. The local
installation and commissioning will add
significant amounts before any production can
begin.
Adding
Up all the Costs Till 1989.
Summarily,
I will place the Pakistani Bomb costs as follows:
-Training
and Development (1978 – 82)
$1.5 Billion
-
Hardware Procurement, Installation and
$ 5.0 Billion
(Commissioning
(1982 – 89)
-
Project Management and Others (1978 – 89)
$ 1.0 Billion
(About 12% of installed costs)
- Direct Labor (12,000 scientists and Engineers
$ 2.0 Billion
(1981 – 89)
-
Utilities and Infrastructure costs
(1982 –89)
$ 2.0 Billion
-
Others including costs absorbed by the Army
$ 0.5 Billion
Total
$ 12.0 Billion
The
above is still in order and magnitude estimate
with +/- 20% accuracy. No researcher will ever get
to the right figure as it has been cleverly
disguised in various government department
expenses, hence unavailable.
Project
Management and Production
The
project management in Kahuta followed exactly the
path the America used to acquire its nuclear
capability in 1942-45. At Los Alamos, engineers
and scientists were given a free hand in their
endeavor. The US Army controlled the overall
project management, security, procurement and
public relations. The Army also set the time
schedule.
The
Pakistani program followed the same style of
project management as the US. It was the Pakistani
Army, which controlled and accounted the program.
Procurement was army and intelligence controlled
where diplomats posted in foreign countries and
intelligence agents acted as procurement agents.
The site had the strictest security to prevent any
information leaks, all provided by the Army.
Trusted civilian administrators kept the accounts
and arranged for all the monies needed.
From day one, three men civilian committee
consisting of Ghulam Ishaq Khan (then Defense
Secretary), A G N Kazi (then Finance Secretary)
and Agha Shahai (then Foreign Secretary) provided
the civilian face for the effort.
Tests
in 1998
Test
in 1998 was conducted out of materials produced
during commissioning and prior to ceasing
production at 93% U-235 under US pressure in 1989.
Five test explosions were set off. Two were
fission devices of 25 Kiloton and 12 Kiloton
range. Three others were Sub Kiloton devices.
These were exact copies of the Indian tests a
month earlier.
With
these tests Pakistan exhausted quite a bit of its
supplies of fissionable materials and wished to
restart the Centrifuge to produce 93% Weapons
Grade U-235 again. Indo-Pak tension was the
perfect excuse. The production has been restarted
and in last five years and enough weapons grade
fission material has been manufactured to make 30
to 40 Bombs.
Pakistan
and Its Quest for the bomb
Pakistan
currently is exhausted with its Jihad, nuclear
parity expenses and general economic collapse
brought on by diverting monies to needless causes.
It has probably lost a bit of its internal
sovereignty to US by letting US joint control over
its nuclear weapons. Columnist Khursheed Nadeem
has asked recently:
*
Why did Regular Pakistani army with nuclear
weapons fail to win over Kashmir?
*
Why did Jehad fail in Kashmir?
*
Why has diplomacy failed to win Kashmir?
His
point – Is it worthwhile to continue with high
expenses on army, nuclear weapons and missiles,
since there is no possibility of catching up with
India and grabbing Kashmir. The technology
developed so far can only be gifted away not sold
for a price to defray the initial expenses. The
driving force for these expenses i.e. the Kashmir
issue and parity with India are still insolvable
issues. Kashmir will always remain Indian and
India is too big for Pakistan to get a meaningful
parity, hence quite a bit of waste has happened in
a country with poor resources.
(The
author is a retired Vice President from C-I-L Inc.
and has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. A
graduate of Punjab University and University of
Missouri; Rolla, USA, the author is a former
investment strategies analyst and international
relations manager. This article first appeared on
the website of the South Asia Analysis Group, and
has been reproduced here with their permission)
