The
Crossroads - The North Eastern States
H.
Calvin
Introduction
The North Eastern States of India (Assam, Arunachal Pradesh,
Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura)
are a critical part of the future growth,
development and strategic positioning of India.
These states form a gateway from India into
Asia, bordering Bhutan, Tibet, China, Bangladesh,
and Myanmar.
However, because of poor communication and
transportation links between the northeastern
states and central India, these states have not
been accorded their strategic and economic due.
These states currently experience high
levels of illegal immigration and associated
demographic change, which coupled with levels of
insurgency, could reduce the region into a
militarized mountainous morass.
Alternatively, by making the appropriate
choices, it is possible to transform the region
into an economic engine.
There are three primary drivers in the
northeastern states – (a) isolation; (b)
demographic change; and (c) armed insurgency.
Isolation
The challenge of isolation is historically due to both the
physical terrain as well as the accident of
partition. The
255,000 square kilometers of the northeastern,
states are landlocked and are connected to central
India through the 22-km corridor through Siliguri,
known as the “chicken neck” (1).
Prior to partition, the Northeastern states
were an overnight train to Calcutta.
Today, that same overnight ride takes
almost three days for the residents of Tripura
(2). The
physical isolation can be further understood when
it is recognized that six of the seven state
capitals are still not connected by rail (2).
Three of the largest cities (Itanagar,
Kohima, and Shillong) do not have modern airport
facilities (2).
This isolation affects the economic
prospects for the region (by affecting the costs
of imports and exports) as well as the
responsiveness of the rest of India to
catastrophes in the region.
Demographic Changes
The region has historically been characterized by a
preponderance of peoples classified as
“Scheduled Tribes”.
As compared to a national average of 23%
scheduled tribes, the proportion of scheduled
tribes ranges from 29% in Manipur to 93% in
Mizoram (6).
Despite the high proportion of tribal
peoples, the literacy rates are higher than the
rest of India (4).
The northeastern states have experienced a
greater rate of population growth compared to the
rest of India (3, 4).
A detailed analysis of the population
growth indicates that much of the increased growth
rate is related to migration into the northeastern
states. This
migration is primarily illegal, and from
Bangladesh being cross-referenced by data from
Bangladesh (3, 5). Since Bangladeshi illegals are primarily Muslim, there are
now at least three areas, in just Assam that are
reported to be majority-majority areas (Dhubri –
70.5%, Barpeta – 56%, Golpara 50%) because of
this infiltration of illegals (3).
This has, in turn, aided political and
criminal enterprises that wish to take advantage
of the tense communal situation.
Interestingly, Assam (19%) and Tripura
(16%) of the states that actually border
Bangladesh had the lowest decadal growth rates in
the North East (4).
Armed insurgency
The northeastern states are the victims of armed
insurgencies that, other than the Naga movement,
are probably directly related to the perceived
neglect of the Central Government and to the
financial mismanagement of what little Central
funds were allocated (2).
The Interservices Intelligence (ISI) of
Pakistan has also taken advantage of the
discontent in the northeastern states, further
aggravating the situation (7, 8).
As a result, while the insurgency may have
had its roots in the lack of development, today,
it is believed that it is the insurgencies that
prevent development (8).
Critical Imperatives
Addressing the above referenced factors in a coherent and
consistent fashion requires addressing the root
causes. To
that extent, it is essential to (a) enhancing
transportation and communication infrastructure;
(b) wealth creation through industrial development
and tourism and (c) manage immigration.
Clearly, none of these prescriptions are
easy to implement, or they would already have been
implemented.
However, there are relatively low-risk
sub-goals that can set the stage to effectively
accomplish the four major goals listed above.
Transportation and Communication
The northeast has a critical mass of literate and highly
educated people faced with no opportunity for
wealth creation.
The constraints in this regard pertain to
the ease of electronic communication and
electricity reliability in the region, coupled
with the sheer costs of transporting goods into
and out of the region.
The costs of transportation are related to both the
condition of the road and rail network, its
spread, as well as the distance required to be
traversed to reach a port (Calcutta).
Under the current plans, the proposed NS-EW highway project
under the National Highway Authority of India will
link the northeast from Silchar-Guwahati to Purnea
(9, 10, 11).
In addition, there is the Asian Highway
Project. Under
this project, the northeast will be linked to the
rest of India through Dhaka, along the
Dawki-Dispur-Nagaon-Dimapur-Kohima-Imphal-Moreh
route (11). The
Asian Highway provides a link between the
northeast and the South East Asian states.
However, both of these plans will
essentially leave Tripura, Mizoram, and Arunachal
Pradesh out of the picture.
This makes it imperative to create an intra northeastern
road network that links to the main arteries of
the NSEW and AH.
The costs of road construction in this
region may be estimated at between $0.6 – 1.0
million/mile constructed (9, 10).
Figure 1. NS-EW
Map showing links between the northeast to central
India. http://www.nhai.org/nsewmap.htm
It appears that in the long term it is essential to have
two NS and two EW corridors within the northeast
itself. These
EW corridors should probably be Dong-Tinsukia-Jorhat-Guwahati
(300 miles) with a Dibrugarh-Itanagar (200 miles)
spur. The
NS corridors should likely be
Agartala-Silchar-Shillong-Dispur (200 miles) and
Aizawl-Silchar-Imphal-Kohima-Dibrugarh (400 mi). This would create ~1,000 miles of roads and will probably
cost about $1 billion.
Not only will this greatly interlink the NE
with itself, but also with the rest of Asia.
In addition, this road network will provide
the mobility necessary for a strategic deterrent
to be located in the northeast.
The railways in the northeast are operated under the aegis
of the Northeastern Frontier Railways.
These railways have the dubious distinction
of having the greatest number of accidents in the
Indian Railways system (13).
Currently, there is an embarrassing total
of 60 km of railway in the entire northeastern
states (outside of Assam) (4).
The Shukla Commission Report pointed out that high
costs of construction, operation and maintenance,
especially across the Lumding-Badarpur hill
section linking the Brahmaputra and Barak Valleys,
and few bridges across the mighty Brahmaputra were
the critical constraints.
The two key objectives in the
northeast include conversion of the railways to
broad gauge, and the linking of the major
commercial centers.
The cost of railway construction has been
estimated at approximately Rs. 2 crore/km (14)
or approximately $0.5 million/mile,
slightly lower than the estimates for road
construction above.
In addition, is the proposed Trans Asian
Railway also proposes to have two E-W passages
through the northeast to Myanmar (12).
Figure 2. Map of Road network in the northeast.
Not to scale
http://www.mapsofindia.com/maps/india/h3i09.htm
The combined cost of this construction may then be
estimated at $2 billion to develop a robust road
and rail network in the northeast.
Spread out over a period of 5 years, this
is only around $400 million per year. The primary constraint appears to be related to national will
more than economic constraints.
Figure 3. Schematic of the proposed Trans Asian
Railway
http://www.unescap.org/tctd/tar/SCorridorMap.htm
In addition to the road and rail links within the
northeast, it is imperative to make progress of
routes through Bangladesh and Myanmar.
The imperatives of a route through
Bangladesh are that it greatly reduces the
transportation time, and consequently costs of
import and export.
Additionally the route from
Agartala-Comilla-Chittagong offers a shorter route
to the sea. Given
the recalcitrance of Bangladeshi politicians to
evaluate transit through Bangladesh, it is
essential to make progress of transportation links
through Myanmar.
Most of important of this is a route to the
sea, through Akyab/Sittwe (15 - 16). Additionally, the option of creating a sealink for the
northeastern states through Chittagong may be a
low-risk military option in a future conflict with
Bangladesh. Given
the narrow strip of land separating the Chittagong
province from the rest of Bangladesh, and the
continuing ethnic suppression of non-Muslims in
the region, this is an option that the Indian
government must plan for and never foreclose.
Given the educational level of the northeasterners, the
fastest route to economic growth may be through
the information services sector of the industry.
Unlike the manufacturing sector, wealth
creation through the information sector does not
require large infrastructure links, merely
communication and air-transportation links.
To this extent, enhancing the air
transportation links with the rest of the country
is critical.
The example of the Nedumbassery Airport in
Kochi, constructed with private funds is one that
may be evaluated for a fast-track development of
the air-transportation sector in the northeast.
Additionally, evaluating an
“open-skies” policy for the northeast enabling
private operators to provide air-taxi services
would further enable the enhancement of this
segment.
Industrial Development
As the Central Government embraces the free market, and as
the WTO comes into effect, the opportunities for
economic development pass into the hands of
individuals and private industry.
Given the historical record of corruption
and mismanagement of central funds, perhaps this
process must be accelerated.
The existing industrial base revolves
around oil and gas production, and the production
of tea, wood, and food products. Unfortunately, there is not much forward integration
resulting in much of the value added being lost
from the economy of the state.
There are still some areas where Central direction is
essential. The
northeastern regions are known to be rich in oil
and gas as well as hydroelectric power generation
potential. The
hydroelectric power potential is estimated at
around 65,000 MW, or approximately 30% of the
national requirements (6, 17).
A series of dams have been proposed on the
Siang, Subansiri, Ranganadi, and other rivers.
Predictably, environmentalists are outraged
regarding biodiversity issues (17).
It is, however, essential to evaluate the
positive impact on the economic well being of the
people in the region.
The oil and gas industry is one of long
standing in the region.
Recent studies suggest that the Assam-Arrakan
basin may hold significant oil and gas reserves
(18, 19). Currently,
most of the oil and gas is being transported out
of the northeast.
The creation of a refinery and
petrochemical sector in the northeast can have a
dramatic impact on the manufacturing sector in
that region.
For example, much of the plastics business
is centered on polypropylene and polyethylene,
which can be synthesized from naphtha or gas oils.
By producing the polyolefins at source, the
northeast can dramatically enhance their
competitiveness in the injection-molded plastics
industry in its immediate neighborhood – China,
Myanmar, Bhutan, and Bangladesh.
Special Economic Zones
There is much discussion among the northeastern states
about the creation of special economic zones (20,
21). Rather
than creating special economic zones within
individual states, it might be considered to
declare the entire northeastern region and Sikkim
a special economic zone.
As part of this, all tariffs on interstate
commerce might be lifted, to enable manpower and
merchandise to flow to the regions that can most
optimally utilize them.
Tourism
The northeastern states provide the opportunity to go
camping, engage in water sports, white water
rafting, hiking through valleys, forests, and
mountains, rock climbing as well as to view some
of the most awesome natural sights in the world.
The northeast is known for its unpolluted
air, its majestic tea gardens, its forests, and
its monasteries.
It offers unparalleled opportunities to
attract both Indian as well as international
tourists. The
keys to this are the air-transportation links as
well as telephone and Internet communications
links with the rest of the world.
The plan to create an eco-tourism circuit,
with an investment of approximately $15 million,
in the northeast including investments in signage,
and water sports (Shillong to Kohima via Guwahati,
Kaziranga, Tezpur, Bhalukpong, Tawang, Majuli and
Sivsagar) is certainly a step in the right
direction (23).
Manage Immigration
The continuing illegal immigration of Bangladeshi nationals
into India may be expected to accelerate unless
proactive steps are taken to mitigate it.
Since India is growing faster than
Bangladesh economically, and Bangladesh is growing
faster than India demographically, it can be
concluded that the per capita income differential
will expand.
As it expands, the driving force for
illegal immigration will increase, rather than
decrease. Given
the political drivers within Bangladesh, it is
unlikely that the Bangladeshi government will (a)
admit that ex-migration is occurring; or (b)
implement steps to reduce it.
Consequently, it is essential that the
Government of India adopt the steps that can at
least mitigate this.
Some of the recommendations include (1) (a)
fencing; (b) increased BSF policing; and (c)
creation of an identification card registry.
These steps only require will at the
national level to be accomplished.
Summary
The northeastern states were probably the greatest affected
by partition.
Partition robbed them of their links with
central India, while simultaneously linking them
tenuously. The
loss of road and rail links as well as easy access
to the sea meant that industry and the economy of
the northeast suffered.
The semi-command economy also meant that
central assistance was likely apportioned on a
political basis.
The combination of limited funding and
mismanagement of these funds ensured that the
northeast remained underdeveloped.
Much of the insurgent challenges appear to
be under control although there are a number of
armed extralegal groups that are still active,
including in Nagaland.
Addressing the root causes of these errors requires a
commitment to creating infrastructure links with
the northeast in terms of road and rail corridors,
as well as transit links through Bangladesh and
opening sea access either through Chittagong or
Akyab. Once
these infrastructure requirements are created, it
becomes easier to create a manufacturing or
information services industry in the region.
The key sources of wealth creation pertain
to electricity generation (through hydel
projects), oil and gas production, processing and
chemical manufacturing, Internet services, and
tourism. Simultaneously,
it is essential to address the influx of illegal
migrants from Bangladesh. There are a number of steps that the Central government can
implement unilaterally, and which are essential in
this regard.
Creating a special economic zone across the
northeastern states can provide a major stimulus
to trade with Bhutan, Bangladesh, Burma, Nepal,
and China. With
some sustained commitment from the Central
government, along with measures designed to
unleash the entrepreneurial skill of the
northeasterners, the region could become the
gateway to South East Asia.
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Acknowledgements
This article is the result of much discussion on the
Bharat Rakshak Forum.
Many thanks are due to Victor, Rye, Anaath
Das, Laxman, and others.
