Crafting a Winning Strategy

Capt. (r) Bharat Verma

The SAARC summit at Islamabad threw up two important consensuses among member states. The first was SAFTA and the second the acceptance in denying space to Jihadi Terrorism. However, the most vital outcome is the breakthrough achieved by New Delhi in putting back on track the Indo-Pak peace process that was derailed at Lahore and Agra.

Islamabad’s perception change in accepting Prime Minister Vajpayee’s hand of friendship is largely influenced by the development of a negative geo-political environment vis-à-vis Pakistan, post 9/11. First, the international political climate has clearly moved away from terrorism in any form or disguise after the attack on America. India’s contention is being increasingly accepted that Pakistan is the problem and not part of the solution as suggested by some Western nations earlier. Second, selling of nuclear technology to North Korea, Iran and Libya is isolating Pakistan as never before. Third, Pakistan’s attempt to aid the regrouping of the Taliban in Afghanistan if successful, could spell a failure for the American game plan in Central Asia. Fourth, Beijing is wary of Islamabad with the increasing Jihadi threat posed to its Muslim dominated border province. Simultaneously, New Delhi’s deft handling of the China front with increased economic inter-connectivity, forces Beijing to decrease its support to Pakistan. Sixth, Pakistan’s economy is in tatters, with the Jihad factory threatening internal implosion. Seventh, the Vajpayee Government’s shrewd economic diplomacy in Afghanistan, Iran and with Central Asian countries has left Islamabad fairly breathless! With rising pro-India sentiments in these areas, Pakistan has started feeling encircled. Last, in a small measure, it has dawned on Islamabad that fifty-six years of hatred, four wars fought, and eighteen years of proxy war in J&K has not paid dividends in terms of either gain in territory or bestowing a political victory. With India slated to emerge as the next big economic story in Asia, Pakistan finds itself practically written off as a failed state.

These geo-political factors were taken into consideration and inter-woven to create a positive impact on Islamabad by New Delhi, while crafting a winning strategy at SAARC. First, concrete information on Pakistani support to terrorist outfits was regularly fed internationally, government-to-government and to the media. This gradually forced the international community to shift its stand away from Islamabad. Second, we took the legitimate support of the Western nations to influence and moderate Pakistan’s stance. Yet, at the same time, Prime Minister Vajpayee refused to buckle under double standards on terrorism adopted by Americans vis-à-vis General Musharraf. Third, we expanded our influence in East, West and Central Asia through Yashwant Sinha’s economic diplomacy, ignoring Pakistan entirely and making it redundant in many ways. Last but not the least, it is for the first time since the NDA Government came into power that a calibrated, synchronised, measured and focused diplomatic campaign was conducted without cacophony. Earlier, New Delhi had developed a faulty pattern of issuing contradictory and confusing statements by a variety of ministers that always detracted from the central policy objective. Vajpayee and Sinha’s measured, to the point, matter of fact statements helped in a big way to win at SAARC.

The writer is the Editor of the Indian Defence Review and this piece has been reproduced here from the latest issue of the India Defence Review with his permission.