Merely a Tactical Pause!

Bharat Verma

The declaration of a ceasefire across the length of Indo-Pakistani border by Islamabad is a temporary game of pretence. It's a tactical pause in the pursuit of a larger strategic objective: To help the Ummah (or Islam as a nation) fructify. In this big game, Pakistan is backed by surplus petro-dollars funneled by its fundamentalist Wahabbi friends. Armed with Saudi finance and instruments of narco-terrorism, calibrated induction of jihad in Kashmir is merely the first step to set in motion the unraveling of India.

Pakistan's long-term aim in collusion with fundamentalist Islamic regimes is to carve out three Talibanized states-based on hub-and-spoke principle-in North, East and South India. This grand strategy removes the impediment of secular India in the middle and interconnects Islamic nations located in East, West and Central Asia, thus setting up an Islamic Caliphate. Since Asia is the emerging geo-economic hub in this century, the power, regime, religion or philosophy that achieves dominance in the landmass will influence the world. The global stakes for Pakistan and radical Islam are high. If New Delhi expects a permanent ceasefire, it will be suicidal.

Within this big picture, an unforeseen set of internal dynamics and external geo-political compulsions post-9/11 have crept in. These force Islamabad to conduct, temporarily, a tactical retreat to gain time. The US carrot-and-stick approach has landed it in a quandary. The carrot seems to comprise an offer to General Pervez Musharraf of re-establishing Pakistan in Afghanistan via an Islamic confederation. The US promises to extend its strategic depth. It is understood to have offered to put Central Asia's resources at Islamabad's disposal, including transit revenue from oil pipelines, an economic package to develop the Pakistan-Afghanistan area, and equipment to modernize the Pakistani Armed Forces.

The stick proposes a quid pro quo from Pakistan on the Line of Control in J&K as the border. This would enable the India-US strategic partnership to blossom in a reconfigured world order and permit laying of oil pipelines by American companies into India. Diminishing returns in Iraq too enhances India's attraction as a powerful ally in Asia. For all the goodies on offer, Pakistan is also expected to unhinge itself from China and North Korea. The other conditions appear to be the Al Qaeda-Taliban's destruction and help to American military efforts in West Asia to dominate its oil resources.

But Pakistan cannot forego its ties with China, which provides sensitive technology-the core of power and an insurance against India. Chinese nukes gifted to Islamabad make the Islamic world pay respect by coughing up money in the cause of worldwide jihad. China is also a rising Asian power whereas US presence is diminishing, particularly after the Iraq disaster. Pakistan cannot give up its Kashmir claim for fear of internal strife, besides losing out on the larger strategic objective of creating the Ummah. Yet, as a state that lives on rent, it needs American and EU aid. But financial help is conditional as the screws tighten on Pakistan to end cross-border terrorism. So it buys time by pretending to ban a few terror outfits and a ceasefire-infiltration into Kashmir during winter months is difficult anyway. At the opportune moment, Pakistani guns will roar once again.

The moment is not far away given Pakistan's internal dynamics. No insurgency can survive unless externally aided. Pakistan will fuel it through infiltration. New Delhi will retaliate. The Pakistani Army, under the pretext of this defensive fire from our side, will open up its guns to ensure entry of terrorists into J&K. The fragile ceasefire will go up in flames.

Pakistan's negative demographic profile also ensures the ceasefire will not last. Its 74 million population in 1975 doubled to 156 million in 2000 and will touch a whopping 263 million in 2025. With a failing economy, 80 million people will be unemployed by 2010. Add the fact 35 million will be in the 16-to-24 age group from which the military and Jihadis both recruit. If Jihadis are not 'gainfully' employed in Kashmir, the state of Pakistan will implode. Baluchistan, the Northern Areas and Sindh are already on the boil. The 'hate India' glue which keeps Pakistan together is the oxygen that keeps it breathing. If removed, it will spell the end of the nation state.

Writer is the Editor of the Indian Defence Review and this piece has been reproduced here from the latest issue of the India Defence Review with his permission.