Seize the High Ground

This may be my last message, from today Bangladesh is independent I call upon the people of Bangladesh, wherever you might be and with whatever you have, to resist the army of occupation to the last. Your fight must go on until the last soldier of the Pakistani occupation army is driven out from the soil of Bangladesh, final victory is ours.

-         Sheikh Mujib-ur-Rehman March 26^th 1971

This message heralded the start of the Great War of Bangladeshi Liberation. This harsh struggle ended in success on December 17^th 1971 after the Indian Army and Bangladeshi patriots succeeded in forcing Pakistani Army units occupying Bangladesh to surrender. It is only fitting that as that date approaches this year, Bharat-Rakshak should join the people of Bangladesh in remembering those who gave their lives to overcome the malevolence of the Pakistan Army.

Such malevolence was much in evidence throughout the last two months. News of the AWACS purchase by India set off a public show of anger in Pakistan and in response to the AWACS purchase, the Musharraf regime sanctioned a series of missile tests. The argument posed by the Pakistani opinion makers was that the purchase of the AWACS by India “eroded Pakistan’s qualitative edge in the Air” and this forced it to seek a greater reliance on nuclear tipped missiles to maintain deterrence. It is rumored that General Musharraf secured US approval for the tests, and one would have thought that things would have proceeded quite smoothly had it not been for the sudden assassination of the leader of the Sunni Sipaha Saheba Pakistan, Maulana Azzam Tariq. Sectarian strife is not new in Pakistan however the assassination of Azzam Tariq was definitely a big thing. As the communal temperature of Pakistan rose, allegations began to rend the air and amidst the missile tests, the familiar `blame India’ theme resurfaced in Pakistani newspapers. As the Sipaha Saheba Pakistan cadre threatened to launch a major bout of rioting, the `blame India’ theme, so essential gluing Pakistan’s sharp innards together grew stronger and opinion editorials from government sources began to play up the possibility that Azzam Tariq’s murder was a result of “Indian intervention in the internal affairs of Pakistan”. Did the commentators not know of that Gen. Musharraf had laid down a nuclear `redline’ at India’s intervention in subversive acts in Pakistan? Or did they really intend to use Azzam Tariq’s death to provoke a nuclear showdown with India? How was the Govt. of India to tell the difference with missile crews in Pakistan preparing missiles for a `extended testing’? In sum the tensions that followed the assassination of Azzam Tariq should serve as a lesson to students of the region, for nowhere is the connection between internal Pakistani instability and a global threat to peace so clearly demonstrated. The conclusion of the testing period has strengthened Pakistani confidence in their nuclear deterrent. The full implications of this may prove difficult to analyze.

Washington’s preoccupations at the present time are understandable. The tempo and ferocity of terrorist attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan is rising and so are the casualty figures. The first sign of a policy shift emerged after a sudden trip by the Chief Administrator of Iraq, Paul Bremer to the White House. After this trip Paul Bremer announced that the US would expedite the handover of “Iraq to the Iraqi people” within the coming year. It is difficult to say what this did to international confidence in the current administrations strategy in Iraq. Afghanistan poses a challenge of equal magnitude, violence levels against the Karzai government are spiraling up, and the entire `rebuild Afghanistan’ initiative is taking a severe beating from a resurgent Taliban. That opium production has risen to almost double the levels last year doesn’t auger well for the future.

A rising participation by Pakistan, in the form of its Jihadi groups, and its government in terrorism in Iraq and Afghanistan is becoming clearer. Every terrorist cell uncovered in the West appears to have visible links to Pakistan and its rogue army. It appears that Gen. Musharraf is at least aware of this reality. It is rumored that he held an `iftar’ party for the major newspaper editors in Pakistan and asked them for help in dispelling the doubts about his loyalty building in American minds. Gen. Musharraf has also resorted to another round of `banning’ jihadi groups that were supposed to already have been `banned’ two years ago. With that in the background one can only suggest extreme caution when dealing with `Moderate Taliban’.

In Kashmir another side show is underway. Gen. Musharraf has declared a ceasefire along the LoC and the AGPL in Siachen. In material terms this amounts to an end to periodic artillery barrages from the Pakistani side on Indian fencing efforts on the LoC and it also means that Pakistani artillery units will not participate in supporting infiltration bids by terrorist cells. For its part the Indian Army has agreed to the ceasefire along the Siachen AGPL and has reserved the right to use artillery to frustrate infiltration. The leaders of `Banned-Again Groups’ in Pakistan have indicated that they will not respect the ceasefire; which quite easily bolsters Gen. Musharraf’s claim that the Pakistan Army isn’t really responsible for terrorism in Kashmir and that the Jihadi groups aren’t really Pakistan Army fronts. As Pakistani deniability in carrying out terrorist acts in Kashmir grows, the ferocity of the attacks can increase without bound. It appears that the road to peace, from Srinagar to Muzzfarabad has been opened but Pakistani intentions are quite suspect.

A more positive trend was observable in foreign relations with other countries. In October, Prime Minister Vajpayee visited Thailand.  He was warmly welcomed by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.  Prime Minister Vajpayee’s address to the Joint session of the Thai Parliament, a first by an Indian Prime Minister, was well received.  The visit focused on the burgeoning tri-lateral economic ties between India, Myanmar and Thailand.  Another significant topic discussed during the visit was the frame work of an Indo-Thai free trade agreement.  The remainder of the discussion included cooperation in technology, tourism, road and air links. The visit to Thailand was timed to coincide with the ASEAN summit in Bali, Indonesia. This allowed the Prime Minister Vajpayee to discuss pertinent economic and security issues with counterparts from Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines and China. 

In November the Prime Minister visited Russia accompanied by a large business delegation.  This visit marks the third in a series of annual summits between the two countries since the year 2000.  A wide range of topics were discussed among them technology, cooperation on space research, mutual security issues, and development of energy resources.  Following this the Prime Minister made a historical first trip to the Republic of Tajikistan and held dialogue with President Rakhmonov, who visited India in 2001.  Besides discussion on issues of mutual interest, both countries signed the Joint Declaration on Friendship and Cooperation.  As a show of goodwill, India extended to Tajikistan a $40 million economic package. 

In the final leg of the November foreign visit, Prime Minister Vajpayee visited Syria.  The Prime Minister held dialogue with President Bashar Al-Assad who took office in 2000.  The timing of the visit enabled Prime Minister to break bread with his Syrian counterpart at an `iftar’ party marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan.  Among the highlights of the visit was the inauguration of Syrian National Biotechnology Center borne out of Indo–Syrian cooperation. Additionally several memoranda were signed on topics ranging from education, technology and industry.  The events over the past two months can best be summarized as building upon mature relations with ASEAN and Russia, seeking a new friendship with Tajikistan and refocusing on acquaintances such as Syria. These developments show the vibrancy of India’s foreign policy.  It demonstrates a willingness to engage a diverse group of countries at various levels and build on common issues.