Fashioning A Winnable Strategy

Bharat Verma

The Six Nation meet in Beijing to discuss the disarming of North Korea’s nuclear weapon program in exchange for a non-aggression pact is a trumped up act and part of a larger Chinese deception plan. This is to ensure that its North Korean ally gains substantial time and that the Americans are kept hanging on a thin edge. Similarly, if one dispassionately investigates the recent Mumbai bomb blasts and the Srinagar attack during the Prime Minister’s visit, one will see deep links to the Chinese genius to conduct asymmetrical warfare through proxies without direct confrontation. Primarily no insurgency can be sustained without external aid. It is the ISI and the Pak military that funnels jehad in Kashmir. And it is North Korea that keeps the sword hanging over South Korea and Japan. Beijing’s grand strategy consists of using these two puppets to gain unchallenged supremacy in Asia.

Pakistan is the right and North Korea the left arm of China. As satellite states, their foreign policy is conducted in consultation with Beijing. For example, North Korea under advice from Beijing has threatened to nuke South Korea where US troops are stationed in case it does not get a non-aggression pact from the Americans. Similarly, if Pakistan is under threat, it promises to nuke India. These similarities of stance originating under Chinese tutelage aim to expel American influence from Asia, keep India weak, limit Japan and South Korea and ensure that Pakistani jehadis are deflected and kept away from Muslim dominated areas of China. If these two Chinese pawns, Pakistan and North Korea, are cut down to size, jehad and Beijing will stand sufficiently contained.

However, the Americans have an altogether different game plan. Under the pretext of waging war on terrorism, they simultaneously want to limit two large countries that boast of great power potential. To unravel China they have activated mechanisms that will encircle or counter-balance the emerging giant. In Asia, the only other power that can actually contain China is India. Hence India has a standing invitation to join the American club! To keep India’s growing ambitions in check, the Americans have embraced a terrorist state as their frontline ally, primarily on two counts: first, the heavy Chinese investments in Pakistan can be effectively brought to naught and their influence in Central Asia curtailed; second, by luring Pakistan with massive aid, it can be encouraged to keep New Delhi pre-occupied as in the past. The Americans from the beginning have wanted a toehold on the periphery of India. With the Central Asian oil game, this aim has gained a new momentum.

But even the best of game plans can go haywire as Washington is discovering to its dismay in Iraq. American unilateralism lies buried in the sands of Iraq. China meanwhile has upped the ante through North Korea. Washington is in a quagmire of its own making, with 37,000 US troops in the line of fire in South Korea and no military reserves available back home to deploy in emerging flashpoints. Further by mollycoddling Islamabad, the fountainhead of terrorism, and with Pakistan Indianising the Afghan borders under Chinese advice, American Special Forces are compelled today to fight on two fronts. Afghan warlords at one end and disruptive Pakistan influences on the other, thereby, grounding their military surplus. Therefore, New Delhi should not be surprised with the increase in frequency of telephone calls from Washington.

American power’s freefall is linked directly to two landmark events that occurred close on the heels of each other and are propelling the world towards unprecedented turbulence. The September 2001 attack on America brought the world community together in support. This goodwill quickly dissipated with the unjust invasion of Iraq. To top it all, the United Nations, the most significant platform of collective leadership, was rendered impotent. Therefore, the War on Terrorism stands diluted, terribly divided, totally distorted and is therefore sputtering. Between your and our terrorists, your and our national interests, old and new Europe and French fries and American burgers! Strategic follies committed by George Bush and his cronies have made the world a far more dangerous place to live in than it actually was. Meanwhile, the Jehad Inc. covertly supported by Beijing merrily continues to run amok.

Neither is America in a stand-alone mode capable of fighting this war on its own, nor should it push for a clash of two civilizations and bring them to the brink of Third World War. Both stand to lose along with the world at large. The sane strategy for Washington would be to identify and choke the major players pro-active in exporting Islamic terrorism and proliferating sensitive technology.  To fashion a winnable strategy it is imperative that United States returns to the United Nations to create an umbrella of like minded nations as the rag-tag “Coalition of the Willing” is not a workable solution. However, the paramount question is does George Bush have in him what it takes?

Writer is the Editor of the Indian Defence Review and this piece has been reproduced here from the latest issue of the India Defence Review with his permission.