`Captain (r) Bharat Verma`

Many credit Gorbachev with dismantling the Soviet empire in unnecessary haste. The life of that monolithic structure could easily have been extended by another couple of decades while it transited from a state of wasteful absolutism to a guided democracy with a reasonably open market economy. Similarly, in times to come, George Bush and his cronies are liable to be accused of unraveling the American aura. It was laid to rest recently out of sheer uncalled-for unilateral arrogance by the lone super power.

Washington acted all the way foot-in-the-Bush. The United Nations was rendered irrelevant with the insistence that the Security Council vote in USA's favor. Otherwise it was walking out! Needless arrogance not only divided the Security Council members but world opinion. Bush-fire scorched American public opinion too with widespread anti-war demonstrations held right under Washington's nose. The American unilateralist approach further increased the anti-American sentiments in the Islamic world. This in turn has enhanced the threat perception of an average American visitor to Asia. Further, embedded American media shattered its credibility. The international audience switched to Arab channels to crosscheck the picture. In fact, the worst casualty in the Iraq War is the American media, which suffers from a severe credibility gap today. The American aura of righteousness, fair play and equity that today stands discredited, was built on this very foundation - a worldwide faith in the credibility and integrity of a free American media; a media that has now got embedded in "responsible reporting", prevarication and unequivocal bias. Today, therefore, skepticism abounds about the announcement of higher poll ratings for Bush. Possession of WMD by Iraq, the sole justification for the invasion, proved merely a propaganda tool, a chimera. Even if Chemical Weapons are found subsequently in Iraq, with Bush having managed to knock the hell out of American credibility, such weapons are bound to be considered a plant.

The contours of the Bush Administration's hegemonic design consist primarily of the following elements: First, the US Dollar must reign as the supreme global currency. Saddam by choosing to denominate his oil export revenues and "Food for Oil" imports in Euro committed an unpardonable sin. If others were permitted the temptation, the American economy would collapse. A large-scale move of Gulf oil funds into the Euro would spell total disaster for the US economy, which is already reeling. Second, create a permanent base in West Asia that enables strategic dominance of this oil rich area. As a corollary, the move can nip in the bud Islamist fundamentalist activities. Weakened by sanctions, the Iraq regime was an ideal target on such counts. The UN debate was merely a charade; the Pentagon had finalized plans to invade Iraq a long time back. Third, by controlling Iraq's oil, make OPEC either redundant, or at least reduce its relevance. Fourth, reformat West Asian countries through regime change and creation of new geographical divisions. Ultimately, break Iraq into three separate countries and Saudi Arabia into two.

Smaller Islamic nations would be too weak to ever pose a challenge to Washington and the western way of life. Fifth, Iraq was the only state, with adequate resources, both technological and economic, with the ability to threaten Israel with missile attacks including WMD. Given the strong Jewish lobby in USA and the strategic association with the country, Israel has to be protected at all costs. Sixth, by positioning itself in Iraq, Washington could develop adequate maneuverability to dominate not only West Asia but also energy rich Central Asia. To put Central Asia under its thumb, it is funding Pakistan to act as a window in a multi-pronged approach. Pakistan would act as a barrier preventing Indian influence from sweeping into Central Asia. This move would also checkmate China by wresting Pakistan from its clutches. Pakistan, of course always has been in a rent-a-state mode – an untrustworthy mercenary state open to the highest bidder! Once economically dependent and weak Pakistan is in its pocket, the US could command Central Asian oil and gas assets in addition to imposing its diktat on West Asian energy resources. A presence in Central Asia would also imply a strategic presence near the soft underbelly of a resurgent Russia, as also a check for any westward expansionist aspirations that China might have. Seventh, if the above American game plan is energized successfully, then the US ends up regulating practically sixty-five percent of the world oil and gas resources. On one hand, it would act as a long term insurance for the American economy and the US Dollar and on the other, as a strategic tool to manipulate the international community; especially other major powers or emerging energy-hungry economies like those of India and China. While this game plan endeavors to contain Islamic nations, it also simultaneously intends to whittle down the growing influence of the EU (particularly France and Germany), Russia, China and India. The scenario is best summed up in a nutshell by the popular slogan of one of our telecom service providers - Kar Lo Duniya Mutthi Mein! (Just do it, the world is in your grasp!)

The Battle for Baghdad is over. However, war with a distinct flavor of clash between two civilizations has just begun. The Americans have so far not been able to lend stability to Afghanistan; casualties are slowly but surely mounting; internationally isolated and supported by the so-called Coalition of the Willing, (that really does not add up to much), being over-stretched in various flash spots, will, in times to come, sap their energy and resources. In Iraq (which is likely to develop into another Palestine) for internal security alone they need one hundred and fifty thousand soldiers. In addition, another one hundred and fifty thousand soldiers are essential to seal the Iraqi borders with Islamic countries from where Jihad will regularly be inducted. Two forces will oppose this occupation of Iraq apart from the locals. Islamic fundamentalist elements the world over and the powers that are weary of the American unilateralist approach. If the Americans were to be kept fairly occupied in Iraq for a long period, it would serve the purpose of a number of countries. This in turn might tempt the Americans to attack countries like Syria and Iran. The supply lines thus extended would come under renewed threat of irregular warfare and casualties would mount on both sides. It would be a repeat of the vicious cycle as in the Israel-Palestine scenario where one side has a professional military and the other boasts of equally potent suicide squads. Proliferation of sensitive technologies will rapidly increase. Also, the surplus dollars of an angry Arab world will gradually shift to the Euro. Investments into China and India from West Asia will increase, impacting directly on the American economy.

Being the pre-eminent power, had Washington acted judiciously as first-among-equals in the Security Council, wisely leading other members, it could have easily succeeded in achieving many of the goals. However, the Bush Administration's immature and injudicious handling of power with tantrums thrown all over will accelerate the pace of American decline. Though American military power and its economic clout is way ahead of others, it is not adequate in a stand-alone mode. Without international alliances, Washington, in the long term will be unable to impose its will. North Korea is an example where China had to step in to facilitate a dialogue. Unfortunately, the only surplus Bush dished out to his Allies was a surfeit of arrogance, destabilizing the international world order. In future, fewer and fewer countries shall be listening to America as the world order now transits through disorder to emerge finally in a new shape by the end of this decade. One can visualize with clarity that the developing international order, apart from the USA would consist of the European Union, China, Russia and India. The Russian Federation has staged a remarkable comeback with the twin advantage of gradually integrating with the EU and increasing its proximity with the two Asian giants as the global geo-economic hub shifts to Asia.

Many American columnists continue to dish out illogical explanations in self-defense to soothe their conscience vis-à-vis the attack by the super power on a country that did not directly constitute any threat nor was capable of defending itself. They vainly hope, thereby, to assuage the rising anti-American sentiments worldwide. With the passage of time, however, like Gorbachev, President Bush will singularly be held responsible for destroying in one stroke the edifice of the American aura that was carefully nurtured over generations by his predecessors' intelligent international alliances, to make it the foremost power in the world. It took so many to build America's greatness but just a handful to literally throw it away.

^*The writer is the editor of India Defence Review.

This piece appeared in the India Defence Review and has been reproduced here with the permission of the editor.