Bangladesh: Descent into the Maelstrom

Jay Malkani

Since its creation, Bangladesh has battled for its legacy. It is a fight between secular forces that fought for independence from Pakistan and Islamists who seek to ally with Pakistan. During the early history, secular forces predominated. However, years of military government gave impetus to weaker Islamic forces. Over the last decade despite political reforms, the Islamists have continued to consolidate their strength. In the last few years, the secular groups have been beaten back and the Islamists have emerged as the more dominant force. The emergence of Islamic radicalism has created problems for India, Bangladesh's largest and most powerful neighbor. 

Over the last two years, since the 2001 elections that brought a coalition of Bangladesh National Party (BNP) with Islamic radicals into power, Indo-Bangla ties have sharply nose-dived. There are several outstanding issues between the two neighbors. 

Some of the bilateral issues are:

1) Illegal immigration: An ongoing problem since the creation of Bangladesh, it is estimated (conservatively) that about 2 million of its citizen illegally reside in India. In some adjacent areas such as the Northeastern states and West Bengal the demographic changes are obvious. In early 2003, the spotlight was focused on the problem when Bangladeshi Rifles (BDR) refused to accept its own citizen who had mistakenly crossed into Indian Territory. Bangladesh eventually took back its own citizens, however this does not solve the problem. Bangladesh refuses to acknowledge the problem. Despite proof, Begum Zia states that there are no illegal Bangladeshis in India. Humorously, Bangladeshi officials have asserted that there are illegal Indians living in Bangladesh. 

2) Terrorism in the Northeast: Over the last few years, India has repeatedly presented Bangladesh with a list of terrorist camps. However, Bangladesh's response has been evasive ranging from promised action to denial of the existence of these camps. Unfortunately, to date despite extensive proof the Government of Bangladesh has yet to take any concrete steps to deal with the problem and assure India. 

3) Attacks on minorities: Since the elections, which brought to power the BNP and its assorted amalgam of Islamic parties. Attacks on minorities have risen alarmingly. In the immediate aftermath of the elections, many Islamists and other opportunists celebrated their victory with large-scale attacks on minorities by rape, loot and murder. Unfortunately since then, the attacks and intimidation have continued. Stories of extortion, kidnapping, and violence are commonplace. Perhaps the most tragic of all is the complacency of the government in these attacks. The police are easily bought off, stand silent or often aid the attackers. Many Christian and Hindu families have escaped persecution and fled to India. 

4) Islamic Radicalism: The BNP is closely allied with Islamist parties. The Islamist parties are closely tied with their counterparts in Pakistan and its intelligence service, ISI. Bangladeshi radicals have been increasing their influence over the last decade. The radical parties are pressuring to make the country into an Islamic one. They are closely tied to terrorist groups in the Northeast as well radical organizations in Myanmar and its own military. Bangladesh is the source of the terrorist attack on the American Consulate in Kolkata that resulted in the death of policemen. The Islamists have expansionist designs and seek to incorporate parts of India's Northeast. In 2000, President Clinton in his first ever visit was prevented by the secret service from traveling to parts of Bangladesh because his security could not be guaranteed. Recently, Bangladesh has given shelter to Al Qaeda members escaping American forces. This has alarmed the US and Bangladesh was placed on the watch list and its citizens are required to register. 

5) Hindering Regional cooperation: Bangladesh has recently discovered a sizeable (20 TCF) natural gas reserve. It has repeatedly held up development of a natural gas pipeline that will export gas to India and earn the country much needed revenue. Bangladeshi nationalists and radicals oppose any plan to export gas and have called those who favor the export "pro-India". Bangladesh has also responded with disinterest to India's proposal for an alternate transit corridor to the Indian Northeast. This proposal will earn Bangladesh $200 million in revenue. 

6) Border Areas: This situation is actually a compound problem involving illegal immigration, terrorism, Islamic radicalism and complicity of the Bangladeshi armed forces. In 2001, BDR illegally entered into Indian Territory and captured a border village. This was coupled with bravado by Bangladeshi politicians and unfounded accusations against India. In the short-lived occupation, the BDR looted and vandalized the village with BNP propaganda. It is widely believed that this event was engineered by BNP to humiliate the ruling Awami League government of Sheikh Hasina. Besides this event, there are regular occurrences where criminals are aided by the BDR in raiding Indian border villages. Most recently, the BDR has attacked the Border Security Force (BSF) outposts and villages. 

The heart of the problem between the two countries is Bangladeshi intransigence. This intransigence prevents constructive dialogue on security and economic issues. This problem is not a new feature and has been a growing one for years. Any politician seeking better relations with India is automatically dubbed "pro–India". Such a label is an effective death knell in Bangladeshi politics because of an irrational and paranoid fear of the general population of being dominated by a larger country. Possibly this is a hangover of its history and brutal treatment meted out by Pakistan prior to independence. Ironically, parties that seek alignment with Pakistan (BNP and Islamist parties) have capitalized and manipulated this fear and directed it against India. The growth of pro–Pakistan forces has exacerbated existing problems by bolstering obduracy. 

It is recalled that the current government came to power on platform of improving the economy and reducing poverty. While over the last two years there has been some growth in its rural sector. It is unimaginable to think that real and long lasting economic growth for a large and poor population can be achieved by agitating India. By refusing transit routes and export of natural gas to India, Bangladesh is denying itself much needed revenue that can go towards the promised economic growth. Promoting stability in the Indian Northeast will result in greater economic opportunities. Improved relations with India can only benefit Bangladesh as it regularly needs help with the aftermath of natural disasters, grain exports and modernization. 

Bangladesh's utility in the region is not permanent. India is rapidly moving towards economic integration with the rest of the Subcontinent and Southeast Asia. Myanmar has responded favorably to India's interest in natural gas pipeline and is willing to jointly develop an alternate transit route for the Northeast. Bangladesh's alliance with the forces of medievalism will ultimately leave it isolated and economically undeveloped in the region. One can only hope that the government of Bangladesh realizes its folly and curbs forces that are detrimental to its long-standing interests