The Hand of Peace

"Murders, Death in all its shapes, the capture and sacking of towns, all must be considered as so much stage show, so many shiftings of scenes, the horror and outcry of a play; for here too, it is not the true man, the inner soul that grieves and laments but merely the phantasm of the man, the outer man, playing his part on the boards of the world. "

-Plotinus, Enneads, III, 2 , 15

It could be argued that the conjugate of this also holds and that victories too are merely acts in a play, scripted by powers unknown, and here too the outer man rejoices and the inner man looks on stoically - replete in the knowledge that this too shall pass.

The past two months have seen a generally positive trend in the security situation.

The `military phases' of the US interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan have officially been terminated. Iraq seems to be slowly limping back to normalcy. Gulf-2 was fought with the sole justification that Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction constituted a visible threat to the security of the US. The inability to find precisely these WMDs today, in post Saddam Iraq is hampering US credibility. However the prospect of a major international oil crisis has receded. There is talk now of a new `Middle East roadmap' which will somehow overcome the gridlock in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and move the region closer to a viable peace. In Iraq itself the economic levers appear to be operating and though a real economic recovery is distant, at least the door to international investment has opened measurably. Afghanistan is also experiencing an economic revival in its heartland though the line of control with Pakistan remains an extremely unpredictable place, and the stability of the Karzai regime seems to depend very notably on its relationship with Pakistan.

To put it mildly Pakistan isn't in great shape. The popular sentiment seems to be swinging towards the Islamists. General Musharraf's double role as the COAS of the Pakistan Army and as President of Pakistan has become the target of Islamist political activity but barely veiled beneath the facade of public protest is the Islamist desire to seize power. The General's inability to work with the rest of the Pakistani political spectrum has gravely impaired his attempts to stabilize his regime. The General seems to alternately pander to Islamist pressure, American leverage and Indian military threats. This swinging lifestyle of the Chief Executive Musharraf is weakening confidence in his leadership, and Pakistan bears the countenance of a disaster in progress.

There was a fair bit of press coverage of MEA Yashwant Sinha's remarks about `Pakistan being an ideal candidate for Iraq-style pre-emption'. Most observers in the West took these statements to reflect an Indian desire to implement a military solution to its problems with Pakistan. Thus considerable pressure was applied on the Vajpayee government through economic and political channels to prevent this from happening. However in a surprise move, Prime Minister Vajpayee announced a bold peace initiative in Srinagar. This announcement came within days of a terrible massacre in Nandimarg and caught most regional observers off guard. After some trepidation the international community accepted the offer at face value and began to work on Pakistan to ensure a positive response.

International intervention in Kashmir is nothing new, after all who can forget that the town of Bafliez in Poonch District is actually named after Boukephalus, Alexander the Great's horse which died there during his campaign. It appears that the international community led by the US is working (at least) thematically towards converting the Line of Control (LoC) into an international border. The Indian side naturally regards this idea with skepticism, as it sees the Pakistani position on the LoC to be a reflection of deep-seated animosity with India. Getting Pakistan to forever renounce its claim to the Vale of Kashmir would be asking it to accept the status quo and thereby forever relinquish any future basis for a conflict with India. Perhaps the absurdity of asking a Pakistani to do this isn't quite apparent to the international community.  We believe that conflict with India has been at the core of Pakistan’s justification for its existence as a nation and hence India’s skepticism is not misplaced. In India too any attempt to effect a formalization of the Line of Control into an international border will open up vexed constitutional issues, the Prime Minister must at some level be confident of handling the parliamentary debate on these matters.

There are visible signs of success in India's counter terrorist operations in Jammu and Kashmir. In Operation `Sarp Vinash' (Snake Destruction) elements of `Romeo' Force, `Victor' Force and other security units wiped out a major node in the logistical network of Pakistani sponsored terrorism. The operation to smash the terrorists' mountain redoubt at Hill kaka in the Pir Panjal range was the largest counter-insurgency operation conducted in India since the retaking of Aizawal in 1964. The retaking of this complex without attacks from surface-to-air missiles and with minimal losses has been credited by news media to American pressure on Pervez Musharraf. While the truth of these statements is debatable, what is not debatable is that terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir has been dealt a severe blow. Bharat-Rakshak takes this opportunity to congratulate Maj. Gen. Hardev Liddar (GOC Counter Insurgency Force-R), men of the 9 Para (SF), and all other personnel involved in Operation Sarp Vinash. Hill kaka is in all probability one of several nodes in a logistical backbone that runs along the Pir Panjal from Poonch to Doda.  Breaking up this network is critical to defeating terrorism. Such a breakup also offers an excellent way to test the Pakistani commitment to peace and if indeed American leverage played some role in achieving this crucial victory, then the benefits of such an approach should be obvious to all.

The visit by Prime Minister Vajpayee to key European countries, coinciding with the G-8 summit in Evian, is indicative of the growing diplomatic presence of India in the new global strategic paradigm. While the French host's invitation was extended to a number of "emerging economy" countries, partly to thumb its nose at the US and to wave the multipolarity flag, Vajpayee is likely to accomplish some serious tasks in advance with an  eight-day tour of Germany, Russia and France.

It is expected that Vajpayee will meet with the new Chinese President Hu Jintao on the sidelines of the G-8 summit as well; the meeting of the two leaders, representing the two fastest growing and most happening countries in the world today, will evoke much symbolism at a time when "old Europe" is doing its best to look fit enough to play the game of nations - even coming out with a draft constitution in time. The visit by George Fernandes to China has perhaps laid the framework for a broader discussion of sensitive issues like the status of Sikkim and Chinese access to the port of Calcutta. Certainly, it is too early to attach labels like "old Europe" and all that it implies, but it is not too early to see the writing on the wall as far as a "New Asia" is concerned.

On the technology front too there is much good news. The successful launch of the GSLV and the injection of the GSAT-2 into geostationary orbit heralds India’s entry into a rather lucrative space launch industry as well as strategic independence towards use of space for the nation’s economic and security well being. The perfect launch of the GSAT-2 into Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) with 290 Kilograms of fuel to spare, speaks of ISRO’s innate capability and maturity. Equally positive developments like the rollout of the LCA-`Tejas' Production Vehicle-1 and the clearance of the Phalcon AEW suite bode well for the aerospace community. It is heartening to see such a brisk pace toward achieving a credible presence in the aerospace arena.

Some attention is being devoted to the `Al Qaida revival' in the recent series of suicide attacks in Riyadh city and on a Jewish community center in Casablanca. The notion of a `revival' arises only if one pretends that the threat of Al Qaida was entirely erased by the efforts that followed September 11. In the absence of credible reports about the arrest or assassination of Osama Bin Laden, and other elements of the top Al Qaida councils, it is difficult to justify the claim of success. Little per se seems to have been done to annul the deep influence of Unitarians in Saudi Arabia on Islamist movements and much more needs to be done in Pakistan to curtail the power of Islamist groups. These two countries represent the `twin towers' of terrorism and unless something credible is done to undermine curtail extremism here, it seems unlikely that future `Al Qaida revivals' can be prevented.