Myanmar:
Intersecting
Destinies of a New Asia
Laxman B. Bahroo
Introduction
After
decades of self imposed isolation, Myanmar is awakening to
its importance as a link between East Asia, Southeast
Asia, and the Indian subcontinent.
As the economic, military and cultural giants of
Asia rival for influence, Myanmar finds itself on the
front lines of a continental power struggle for influence.
Myanmar, a country rich in natural resources,
critically borders the underbelly of China, the strife
ridden Indian northeast, and the strategic Andaman Sea
with proximity to the Straits of Malacca.
The
paper seeks to provide a holistic perspective on the
events in Myanmar and the region.
It begins with a brief background of the country
and historical ties with India and China. This will allow the reader to see India - Myanmar and
China - Myanmar ties in a more comprehensive light.
Subsequently, the article will discuss the recent
intensification of ties between the three countries.
Armed with this information, the reader will gain
insight into the economic and security considerations that
bind these countries and importance of Myanmar in the
region.
Background
Myanmar,
like India, is a multiethnic and multi-religious state.
The main ethnic groups, Myanma and Bamar, live in
the central plain irrigated by the Irrawaddy River. The
remainder of the population, approximately 45%, consists
of half dozen large tribes and many small tribes living in
the surrounding hills. Historically, the plains people
have exercised varying levels of control over the hills.
However, relations between the groups have always
been uneasy due to ethnic pride and contemptuous treatment
as evident in tribal folk tales.
A notable one, mentions a young tribal boy being
cheated out of his earnings by an arrogant Bamar in an
unfair wager. The
arrival of British imperialism exacerbated these trends.
The British preferentially recruited hill tribes,
in the process converting them to Christianity.
The recruits were used to police the largely
Buddhist plains people. [i]
The
Panglong Agreement of 1947 with the Shan, Kachin, and Chin
tribes, created a unified Myanmar.
Modern Myanmar is a creation of British imperialism
and many of the current problems are carried over from its
colonial past. The
arbitrary drawing of borders fragmented ethnic groups.
These fractured ethnicities became quickly
disaffected. Militarily trained by the British, they undertook an armed
insurrection with the goal of greater autonomy or reunion
with their kinsfolk.
In only a few years after independence, Myanmar was
embroiled in a civil war. [ii]
Over
the years, Myanmar faced a multitude of simultaneous
insurgencies primarily from the Wa, Karen, Kachin, Naga,
Mizo tribes and the communist party. China funded Communist Party of Burma (CPB) till the late
80's. Myanmar
is currently the second largest producer of illicit
narcotics. Drugs
have always played a major role in the insurgencies. The
insurgent zones are a nexus of freely available weapons,
synergy between insurgent groups and smugglers.
This nexus is a problem both for Myanmar and its
neighbors. Neighbors
become conduits for the profitable criminal activity that
fuels insurgencies and the destabilization spills across
the borders.[iii]
 The
Nation
The
founding father of modern day Myanmar was General Ang San.
As a college student in Rangoon University, he led
student strikes against British Rule and became the
General Secretary of Dobama Asiayone, (We Burmans Association), a nationalistic group.
The Japanese advance towards India brought opportunity.
Ang San formed the BIA (Burma Independence Army)
with a core of "thirty comrades" aided by Japan.
The tribal groups sided with the British and formed
resistance groups. However,
Ang San changed alliances and sided against the Japanese.
After the war, he pressured the British to grant Myanmar
freedom. In 1947, he retired from the military and formed the AFPFL
(Anti Fascist People Freedom League).
AFPFL won a landslide victory in the first
elections but prior to taking office; a political rival
assassinated him.[iv]
The
loss of Ang San left the country without any recognized
leader and directly led to political instability.
Tribal groups took up arms and the military
repeatedly intervened in politics. The twenty – six year reign of General Ne Win and the BSPP
(Burmese Socialist People's Party) is widely considered to
be a very corrupt and brutal era in the history of
Myanmar. He
served in the BIA in the core group of “thirty
comrades”. He was influenced by the Secret Japanese
police and also showed admiration for Stalin.
During the coup, Ne Win used the military to crush
student protests and attacked ethnic minorities seeking
independence. It
is in this era that Myanmar became increasingly isolated
from the rest of the world.
In 1987, his government suddenly changed the
currency, which caused mass bankruptcies. [v]
In
1988, he stepped down from power and the popular revolt
known as “8.8.88” was born at this time. [vi]
The military crushed large-scale student demonstrations
protesting for political reform.
Ang San Suu Kyi, daughter of Ang San, encouraged
democratization of the political system.
She lived in Myanmar till the age of 15.
After this, she lived abroad primarily in the
United Kingdom and married an Englishman.
She returned to Myanmar in 1988 to take care of her
ailing mother. Her
name automatically placed her in the political limelight
and during the May 1990 elections, she like her father,
received overwhelming support from the people.[vii]
The NLD (national League for Democracy) received
majority of the votes against the military backed National
Unity Party, the revised BSPP.
However, as in the past, victory was rapidly
overturned. SLORC
(State Law and Order Restoration Committee) nullified
election results and Ang San Suu Kyi was placed under
house arrest. In
1992, control of the SLORC regime passed to General Than
Shwe. [viii]
SLORC-SPDC
During
the era of SLORC, the country was renamed Myanmar and its
capital was renamed Yangon.
The name change was widely criticized and even more
widely misunderstood.
It signified an important change in the mindset of
the leadership and their goal for the country.
Burma was a name given by outsiders, while Myanmar
has been the indigenous name.
The change signifies nationalistic pride and
outright defiance of outside nomenclature.[ix]
Additionally, SLORC renamed itself in 1997 to the SPDC
(State Peace and Development Corporation).
This name change though again widely considered
insignificant shows a change in the role of the government
and many of the corrupt senior generals, associated with
Ne Win regime were forced into retirement. [x]
 The
precise functional mechanism of the SPDC is not known.
Only names, ranks and official positions and
offices are available.
The diagram below depicts the proposed function of
the SPDC. Senior General Than Shwe holds three positions,
the Chairman of the SPDC, Prime Minister of the Cabinet,
and Minister of Defense.[xi]
He communicates with the SPDC and the Cabinet via two
liaison offices, the SPDC Chairman's and Prime Minister's
office respectively. [xii]
The SPDC serves primarily as the central coordinating and
governing body headed by Chairman Than Shwe.
Additionally, the SPDC receives input from the
ministries presiding over civil affair and includes senior
members in the Ministry of Defense such as the head of
DDSI, Tri-service officers and BSO.
Additionally, it includes the Commander in Chief of
the Armed Forces, Deputy Senior General Muang Aye. [xiii]
Over
the last 10 years, the Ministry of Defense has been
modified and includes three subdivisions the DDSI, BSO and
Tri-service Command office.
The DDSI (Directorate of Defense Services
Intelligence) is the main organization for gathering
intelligence and includes the OSS (Office of Strategic
Studies). The
OSS is the government think tank and provides advice on
foreign affairs, narcotics, security, ethnicity and
science and environment.
General Khin Nyunt heads the DDSI.
The Tri-service Command office is designed to
provide a unified command to Myanmar's expanding and
modernizing forces. The
BSO (Bureau of Special Operations) consists of senior
commanders and presides over the 12 regional commands in
the country. [xiv]
"The
independence and sovereignty should always be safeguarded
with full awareness. We are in the process of building a
strong and brilliant modern Tatmadaw to fully safeguard
our independence and sovereignty."
-Senior General Than Shwe at the graduation parade
of the 45th intake of the Defense Services Academy
There
have been three significant achievements during the reign
of the SPDC. The
first is the revamping of the military.
The regime is driven by a desire to make the
Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military) into a major force in the
region. This
revamping has three distinct components (1) increasing the
size and modernization of the military (2) improving
intelligence monitoring capabilities (3) reconstructing
the Ministry of Defense.
The reason given is, historically, independence was
lost easily due to the lack of modern armed forces. Since
1989, the government has increased the number of soldiers
from 190,000 to over 400,000 plus 85,000 personnel in
police and militias.
Currently it is the second largest army in
Southeast Asia, second only to Vietnam.
The military has acquired new equipment primarily
from China but also from Russia, Poland, Singapore,
Israel, and Pakistan. It has sought training from many of these countries.
The Army has been transformed from a light infantry
force to a sophisticated conventional army with improved
communication and information warfare capabilities.
 Myanmar
has improved and increased its intelligence monitoring
facilities with the help of China.
Most prominently these facilities are
located in the port of Akyab, Ramree Island, Hainggyi
Island, Coco Islands, Yangon, and on the borders with
China and Thailand. Also, military intelligence has been
restructured to improve interception and jamming
capabilities. The DDSI is the most powerful intelligence
organization in the country and is tasked with the
gathering of intelligence from the above mentioned
facilities and commands. [xv]
The Ministry of Defense has been reorganized to
include the BSO controlling the 12 regional commands,
several Tri-service command positions and the powerful
DDSI and OSS (see above). This transformation, still in
progress, has been carried out despite a heavy burden on
scarce resources and at the expense of civil development. [xvi]
The
second accomplishment of the regime is economic growth.
Discarding the socialist policies of Ne Win’s
regime and increasing regional engagement have largely
accomplished the economic turnaround.
Since 1993, the economy has grown 6% yearly;
specifically growth has increased in the mining, and
manufacturing sectors.
Large portion of the growth has been due to the
influx of Chinese funds, economic linkages with ASEAN,
specifically Singapore and Malaysia.
Japanese and Indian governments have also
contributed to sustained economic growth. [xvii]
The
third main accomplishment is the ability to bring peace to
areas afflicted by strife since independence.
The critical event occurred in 1989, when lack of
Chinese government support plunged the CPB into chaos. The
Wa (dominant ethnic group in the CPB) quickly entered into
a ceasefire agreement with the military regime.
This allowed the government to redeploy forces to
increase pressure on the NDF (National Democratic Front)
an amalgam of 11 ethnic groups.
Since then, the government of Myanmar has signed a
ceasefire with almost all of its major insurgent groups.
The lone exception is the Shan State Army - South
which continues to fight the authority of Yangon. [xviii]
[xix]
However,
the cease-fires have also created problems.
Most notably the (UWSA) United Wa State Army
(allied with the military regime) is heavily involved in
the production and transportation of opium, heroin, and
methamphetamines. Prior
to the cease-fires, the insurgent groups used illicit
drugs to purchase arms.
After the cease-fire, allied regional commanders
are actively abetting the drug trade. Areas of Shan state (bordering Thailand) are the site of
poppy farms and methamphetamine manufacturing labs.
These drugs are then transported to Thailand, China
and India and eventually enter the international market.
Government acquiescence or active participation is
yielding a larger bounty, further criminalizing the border
areas of Myanmar and may have long term consequences for
mainstream society. [xx]
Another
very harmful effect of the drug trade is the worsening of
once cordial Thai - Myanmar relations.
In the past 3 years, Thailand has become
increasingly alarmed by the rise in the entry of drugs.
It is estimated that Thailand, a nation of 62
million people has over 2 million drug users. The addition of increasingly available drugs with the robust
Thai tourism and sex industry make for a dangerous
combination. Thailand
has repeatedly asked Myanmar to curb the trafficking of
drugs. Myanmar,
in turn, has repeatedly accused Thailand of supporting the
Shan State Army - South and interfering in its internal
affairs. Compounding
the war of words are the skirmishes between Thai troops
and the UWSA as the latter crosses the border to aid drug
traffickers. These
skirmishes subsequently involve Myanmar’s troops who
defend the allied UWSA.
In the past few years, there have been many reports
of artillery fire exchanges, the intrusions by Thai Air
force F-16's, naval attacks and multiple instances of
threatening postures taken by both armies. [xxi]
Power Struggle
Myanmar's
numerous insurgencies have been subdued by the SPDC thru
military action and negotiations but the 70 year old
General Than Shwe's government is in the middle of a power
struggle. At
least two rival factions are known.
General Maung Aye (Vice Chairman and Commander in
Chief of the Armed Forces) and Lieutenant General Khin
Nyunt (Secretary 1) head the two factions.
General Aye, a battlefield commander and an expert
in psychological warfare, is considered to be a hardliner
and the natural successor given his position in the SPDC.
The majority of the military officers support him.
Lieutenant General Nyunt, an ethnic Chinese, is
considered a moderate / progressive. He is closely tied to
Ne Win and considered the most powerful person in the
regime because of his various roles.
He heads the DDSI and is supported by the
intelligence apparatus, which carries a disproportionately
large influence within the SPDC. Additionally, he is the military advisor to General Than Shwe
and the person most responsible for negotiating treaties
with the insurgent groups.
The power struggle was held in balance by two
stabilizing factors. First, General Than Shwe has not yet
announced a successor.
The second, Ne Win, though associated more closely
with the "moderate" faction, has ties to both
antagonists. [xxii]
 A
significant shift in the power struggle occurred in
February 2001, Lieutenant General Tin Oo (Secretary 2)
died in a helicopter crash in the Karen State. He was a widely disliked figure for his heavy-handed
treatment of insurgents and NLD members. [xxiii]
Lt. General Tin Oo previously was the target of
several assassination attempts however none of them were
claimed. However,
General Nyunt has repeatedly blamed dissidents in Japan
and even the US government for the act but has offered no
proof to the effect. The death was rumored to be a
political assassination by Lieutenant General Nyunt
because Lieutenant General Tin Oo was a hardliner and
supported General Aye.
His death could signify an increase in the power
struggle as both sides increase the tempo of operations
against the other. [xxiv]
A
second shift in the power struggle occurred in March 2002
when family members of Ne Win were held on charges of
corruption and plotting to overthrow the government.
This was a stunning event as Ne Win and his family
members were considered to be untouchable especially since
the current leadership is considered to be his protégé. [xxv]
It is possible that the charges against his family
are part of the power struggle in the country. Later in that year, Ne Win passed away at the age of 92.
His funeral was attended only by family members and
not announced in the state controlled media. [xxvi]
The events regarding Ne Win show that his influence in the
government had declined over the past few years.
Daw
Ang Sang Suu Kyi and the NLD (National League of
Democracy) form a very important part in Myanmar's
politics and the power struggle.
The NLD, associated with ethnic parties, have
popular domestic support.
The series of negotiations between the military
regime and Ang Sang Suu Kyi have been ongoing since 1994.
She has met with several top leaders in the SPDC.
Over the last two years, negotiations have
intensified due to pressure from the UN and international
labor organizations. Former Malaysian Ambassador and special advisor to Dr
Mahathir Mohammed, Razali Ismail was appointed UN
representative to Myanmar.
In the past three years, UN interaction with
Myanmar’s regime has intensified and Rep. Razali even
traveled to Myanmar 5 times in 2001 alone.
Generally he met with Lt Gen. Nyunt representing
the SPDC, Ang Sang Suu Kyi, other NLD leaders and several
ethnic leaders. Pressure yielded the release of political
prisoners and release of Ang Sang Suu Kyi.[xxvii]
She has been allowed to travel around the country and hold
meetings with political, religious and social figures.
However, talks between the military regime and Ang
Sang Suu Kyi have not resulted in any significant
breakthrough. [xxviii]
[xxix]
In
addition to domestic players in Myanmar's power struggle,
a number of international players have vested interests.
The Chinese support the ethnic Chinese, Lt. General
Nyunt. In
fact, Lieutenant General Nyunt was the target of an
assassination attempt by members of the military opposed
to his pro - China leanings.[xxx]
The American and Thai governments have a
predilection for Lt General Nyunt because of his
“progressive” leanings and see him as a way to expand
business interests. The
Government of India tends to favors General Aye because of
developed contacts. It
is wary of Lt. General Nyunt because of his ties to
Pakistan and China.
Social problems
In
the last five decades of insurgencies and civil war, there
have been countless human rights abuses.
The problem stems from the ethnic fault lines of
the country. The
army largely composed of plains people sought to crush
various tribal insurgencies.
Historic ethnocentric tendencies bolster morale and
recruits often see their enemies as inferior and
sub-human. This
sets the stage for many of the abuses on tribal civilians
such as mass rape, forced labor, and forced relocation.
Some abuses, such as rape have been so excessive
that the military has earned the epithet "Mu Dane
Tatmadaw" which
translated means Rapist Burmese Army.
In recent years, a gruesome picture has emerged
with reports from multiple sources such as the US
Department of State, United Nations, Red Cross and various
independent NGO's that rape has been used in a wide spread
manner to humiliate, demoralize and subdue the tribes. [xxxi]
Myanmar,
a country ruled by a regime that controls the media, large
portions of the economy and education, has a predictable
sense of depression. In fact, as time goes on, the population seems to sliding
deeper into the malady.
People are concerned over the persistent decline,
pervasiveness of corruption, and large influx of Chinese
population coupled with the loss of national diversity.
Individuals hold the government responsible for
encouraging Chinese immigration and relocating tribal
minorities. Many
urbanites no longer believe that the military will give up
power and allow Daw Ang Sang Suu Kyi to return to power
and allow the exiled political dissidents into Myanmar. [xxxii]
Adding insult to injury, Myanmar also seems to be on the
fringe of a health crisis.
HIV infections are spreading with little if any
official measures to educate or prevent the disease.
Due to lack of proper health care the number of
AIDS cases is skyrocketing, though numbers are not
available because of lack of government interest.
Compounding the situation is the discrimination
faced by the infected and reluctance to seek an already
limited medical attention. [xxxiii]
International
Relations
Relations with India
India
has left an indelible mark on Myanmar.
The earliest recorded contact between the two
civilizations dates back to the 5th Century and
predominately involved trade.
Over time contact deepened and resulted in the
transfer of Hindu and Buddhist dogma as well as aspects of
legal codes. In
the mid 1800's, the British intervened in Myanmar under
the pretext of safeguarding trade.
The resultant wars gave the British control over
Myanmar. Indian
influence increased as the British Raj extended to
Myanmar. Indians
staffed the police, military and civil services.
Over time, Indian entrepreneurs followed and formed
a thriving business community.
At the time of independence about a quarter million
Indians lived in Myanmar.
Relations
between a newly independent Myanmar and India were cordial
due to the personal contacts between U Nu and Panditji. On
January 4, 1948, Myanmar's Independence Day, Prime
Minister Nehru stated "As in the past, so in the
future, the people of India will stand shoulder to
shoulder with the people of Myanmar, and whether we have
to share good fortune or ill fortune, we shall share it
together. This is a great and solemn day not only for
Myanmar, but for India, and for the whole of Asia."
As a newly independent Myanmar faced crisis, India
provided military aid to fend off armed insurgent groups
that threatened to destroy the country.
Relations in the 1950's continued the cordial
pattern of the late 1940's with frequent delegations to
India and the signing of the Treaty of Friendship on July
7, 1951 in New Delhi.
A
major turning point in bilateral ties occurred in 1962, as
Myanmar’s silence and neutrality in the Sino - India
war, was interpreted as a "pro China" stance.
Another irritant strained the relation further;
General Ne Win nationalized small businesses.
The nationalization drive disproportionately hurt
expatriate Indians already hurt by the Land
Nationalization Bill of 1949.
Relations plateaued for the next two decades
despite continued high level visits.[xxxiv]
A
major down turn in India – Myanmar ties occurred in
1988. The
military government squelched pro democracy student
rallies resulting in a mass of refugees.
India became one of the first countries to
criticize Myanmar and aid pro democracy students.
Perhaps, India (unlike China) was jaded by the
potential of reformist youth forcing change on
totalitarian regimes as seen in Eastern Europe around the
same time. The
Indian government's policy of criticism continued till the
mid 1990s and alienated the military rulers of Myanmar.
The result of this policy could be seen in 1992.
Despite an alarming increase in drugs and arms
trafficking between terrorist groups in India's Northeast
and secessionist movements in Myanmar the two countries
refused to discuss these bilateral problems. However
domestic and regional forced a change in India’s Myanmar
policy.[xxxv]
Relations with China
Ties
between Myanmar and China have existed for more than a
millennium. Among
the notable early interactions between the two
civilizations were the Silk Road and the conquest of Pagan
by Kublai Khan's forces in the 13th century.
In the Sino centric worldview, relations are
between suzerainty (China) and vassal (Myanmar), or older
and younger "toyok" (cousins).
Ancient Myanmar and China do not share the cultural
and civilization link seen between India and Myanmar.
Chinese
relations with a newly independent Myanmar can be seen in
three distinct phases.
The first phase up to 1962 was dominated by the
events of 1949, when Chinese troops approached Myanmar's
northern border in an attempt to crush any remaining
Kuomintang presence.
The second phase from 1962 to 1988 was a mixed
period with positive and negative developments. Several high level visits occurred but anti Chinese riots of
1967 in Myanmar strained relations.
Chinese leadership called Myanmar a "fascist
dictatorship", after General Ne Win's extended visit
to India. Chinese
support for the Communist party of Burma (CPB) further
added to Myanmar's wariness of China. [xxxvi]
Rapprochement
between China and Myanmar started in 1988, as Deng
Xiaoping visited Yangon.
Phase 3 brought the realization in China that
Myanmar could serve Chinese economic and strategic
interests. In
September 1985, Pan Qi, former Vice Minister for
Communications wrote an article in the Beijing Review on
the development of the China's frontier provinces.
Specifically, the article mentioned Myanmar as an
outlet for the Yunnan and Sichuan and Ginzhou provinces. [xxxvii]
The
year 1988 was significant in China -Myanmar relations.
The CPB, deprived of Chinese support, collapsed due
to internal fighting.
Border trade between the two countries officially
opened and was shortly followed by military agreements.
Also, China stood by Myanmar as it faced worldwide
condemnation for nullifying the elections that brought Ang
Sang Suu Kyi to power.
China adeptly filled a power vacuum caused by
international isolationism and declining India – Myanmar
relations.[xxxviii]
Relations with the
world
Geographically,
Myanmar is a regional cross road thru which countries seek
to expand their influence, much the same way Afghanistan
and Central Asia were more than a century ago.
However despite the historical importance, Myanmar
and the world have not paid much attention to each other.
This is due to both Myanmar’s policies and the
world's understanding of the country.
For the majority of its independent era, Myanmar
maintained a neutral policy and co-founded the Non Aligned
Movement. Until 1988, Ne Win maintained an isolationist foreign policy.
Myanmar
has a deep-seated distrust of the West over its colonial
past. Constant
heckling over democracy and criticism of the military
government seek to reaffirm this distrust.
For the West, Myanmar has been the source of
countless insurgencies and narcotics.
Generally, ties have been limited to small economic
deals and funding for anti narcotics operations.
In the post 1988 era, ties with the West are
dominated by sanctions, continued suspicion and increasing
criticism over Ang San Suu Kyi house arrest.[xxxix]
In
contrast ties with Japan have been steadily growing due to
the “sunshine” policy. Relations between the two
countries are based on development aid by JICA (Japan
International Cooperation Agency).
In marked contrast to the policy of Europe and the
US, Japan encourages dialogue between the NLD and SPDC
rather than sanctions and heckling.[xl]
Independent Myanmar was generally isolated from the rest
of Southeast Asia. It
rejected the initial offer for to join ASEAN (Association
of South East Asian Nation) in 1967.
Myanmar's isolationist - socialist military regime
was out of step with the rest of the ASEAN members.
After the SLORC takeover, ties gradually improved
with Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand.
In
the mid to late 1990's, Myanmar reassumed its historical
role as a crossroad between China, India and Southeast
Asia. This
change was largely brought about by the SLORC government
and driven by domestic and international factors.
Economic growth and consolidation of countries into
regional markets dominated the globe rather than
ideological struggles.
Myanmar gained entry into ASEAN and BIMST-EC
(Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand -
Economic council) in 1997 and 1998 respectively.
In just a decade, Myanmar had gone from a regional
pariah to a destination for engagement. Perhaps most telling of Myanmar's role was a quote by U Win
Aung, Myanmar's Foreign Minister that fully realized his
country strategic value, "… we are right in the
middle of East and West Asia and North and South Asia. So,
without us you cannot go around and it will not be
possible to go around. We are in the middle and we are a
link." [xli]
India
- Myanmar relations (1996 - present)
“The
defence of Burma in fact is the defence of India and it is
India’s primary concern no less than Burma’s to see
that its frontiers remain inviolate. In fact, no
responsibility can be considered too heavy for India when
it comes to the question of defending Burma.”
- Sardar K.M Paniker (1944)
The
words of historian Sardar K.M Paniker's spoken at the time
of World War II when Imperial Japan threatened India's
Eastern region are also true today.
Unfortunately they have been forgotten, and it is
often stated that those who forget history do so at their
peril. This
terse warning coupled with the above quote appropriately
summarizes the significance of Myanmar to India.
Yet, despite sharing a 1600 km border, Myanmar has
generally held low priority in India's foreign policy and
often superceded by smaller neighbors.
Northeast
India's
geographically vulnerable Northeast shares 90% of its
borders with Bhutan, China, Bangladesh and Myanmar and
compels India to engage these countries.
Interestingly, many of these countries are actively
or passively involved in the Northeast insurgencies.
Therefore, India's policy towards Myanmar contains
a security dimension as well as an economic dimension.
The entire 1600km border between India and Myanmar
borders four (Arunachal Pardesh, Mizoram, Nagaland, and
Manipur) North-East states. Additionally, notable populations of Mizos and Nagas live
across the border in Myanmar.
The India - Myanmar border is highly porous and
readily used by smugglers, terrorists, and drug dealers.
In this regard, Indian policy has two objectives.
The first is to prevent Myanmar from becoming a
base of operations for Northeast terrorist groups.
Second, India seeks to economically develop and
integrate the Northeast region with Myanmar and Southeast
Asia.
Since
the independence of both countries, the porous border
coupled with the inability of both New Delhi and Yangon to
effectively establish control over their respective
regions created an environment ripe for abuse by various
anti- government groups.
Over the last 50 years, collusion between anti -
India and anti - Myanmar terrorist organizations developed
and deepened to involve drug dealers and smugglers.
This sets up a vicious cycle of diminished
government authority and eroded authority leads to further
criminalization and proliferation of terrorist groups.[xlii]
ULFA
(United Liberation Front of Assam) and NSCN (National
Socialist Council of Nagaland) have received arms and
assistance from KIA (Kachin Independence Army).
Similarly, MPLF (Manipur People's Liberation Front)
receives support from the CLA (Chin Liberation Army).[xliii]
In particular, NSCN has strong ties to Myanmar.
Nagalim (Naga homeland) maps show parts of Myanmar
and Naga dominated regions of India. Khaplang, leader of
the NSCN- K faction is from Myanmar. [xliv]
Furthermore, several groups such as the aforementioned
along with the NDFB and Kuki National Army have
established a presence in Myanmar.[xlv]
The
terrorist organizations operating in India's Northeast are
not just supported by colleagues in Myanmar but also
receive support from an amalgam of Islamic groups
affiliated with the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
Bangladeshi Islamic organizations act in concert
with similar organizations in Pakistan and the ISI (Inter
Services Intelligence) to foment rebellions in India. [xlvi]
Statements by the Indian government officials
coupled with recent discoveries of Taliban weapons cache
found in an ULFA hideout point to a nexus between the ISI,
Pakistani, Bangladeshi radicals, a complicit Bangladeshi
government and Northeast terrorist groups.[xlvii]
Islamic
radicals aiding and abetting terrorists in the Northeast
may appear to be an exclusively Indian problem. However,
it is not so. The
government of Myanmar too has problems with radical
Islamist organizations fighting for independence in the
Arakan region.[xlviii]
The Arakan region is a predominately Buddhist
region of Myanmar with a significant Muslim minority and
is the site of religious clashes.
The refugees sought shelter in the border regions
of Bangladesh and formed two main organizations RSO (Rohingya
Solidarity Organization) and ARIF (Arakan Rohingya Islamic
Front). The more radical RSO is associated with the JeI
and other Islamic organizations in Bangladesh.
Furthermore, the RSO has links to pan Islamic
organizations and its fighters have been seen in places
such as Jammu and Kashmir, Chechnya and Afghanistan.[xlix]
In
the late 80's to early 90's declining Indo - Myanmar
cooperation bolstered drug trafficking and arms dealing
that created problems for both countries. Areas of Northern Myanmar remerged as bases for terrorist
organizations fighting India.
In 1992, Vice Foreign
Minister, U Baswe visited India to discuss counter
insurgency cooperation as well as improving economic and
technological cooperation.
Shortly after, in 1993, a bilateral accord was
signed that became the basis of the current relations
between India and Myanmar.
In 1994, both countries agreed to hot pursuit
across the international border, and joint operations
against armed groups.
In the following year (1995), Operation Golden Bird
was launched against Northeast terrorists by both armies
to choke off arms supplies and transit routes.[l]
Such cooperation has steadily increased over time. From February of 2000 to May 2001, Myanmar’s military
launched attacks on NSCN bases within its borders,
resulting in terrorist casualties and netting of a large
cache of arms. This
cooperative measure has resulted in significant pressure
on the group and others tied to it.
In
addition to the security dimension in Indo-Myanmar ties,
an economic dimension has become apparent. The
general consensus is that the economy of the Indian
Northeast suffers from a lack of infrastructure and land
locked geography. Currently
the Northeast is an unbalanced economy with a small
industrial sector, a large but inefficient agrarian
sector, and needs to import grain from other parts of
India to feed its own population.
In the pre partition era, economic linkages allowed
the Northeast to communicate with ports in present day
Bangladesh and Myanmar. The Government of India hopes to re-establish trade links
with Myanmar that could in turn develop the Northeast. Additionally, economic growth may reap rewards such as a
decline in terrorist violence and greater economic
integration of the region with the rest of India. [li]
 India
has taken several steps to facilitate trade.
The accord signifying the start of trade across the
international border was signed in 1995.
Prior to this, trade took place thru unofficial and
often illegal channels, which encouraged criminalization
of the economy and benefited terrorist groups.
In February 2001, Minister of External Affairs,
Jaswant Singh, visited Myanmar (the first senior visit
since Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in1987) and held
productive discussions with U Win Aung, Myanmar's Foreign
Minister, General Than Shwe and Lt. General Khin Nyunt. [lii]
He inaugurated the 165 km Tamu Kalemyo Kalewa road (TKK)
built along an existing trade route between the two
countries. The TKK road was built at Indian expense and will shortly be
connected to Mandalay. It is affectionately called the
Indo - Myanmar Friendship Road.[liii] Three other crossing
points were established at Pangsau, Champhal (Mizoram) and
Paletwa.[liv]
The
road was the first concrete step towards integrating the
Indian Northeast with its neighborhood.
Since the opening of the route, trade between the
two countries has increased significantly.
According to 1999 - 2000 figures, bilateral trade
was only $141 million.[lv]
Recently, 2001-2002 trade registered at $431
million (93% increase over the previous year).
As a by-product of improved trade and
communications, tourism across the border has spiraled. [lvi]
However, despite the large increase in official trade, it
is still small compared to the unofficial trade.
The unofficial trade takes place via a network
involving local businessmen, corrupt police and
politicians.[lvii]
A daunting task for both governments is to create an
atmosphere that discourages profitable unofficial trade
that funds terrorist groups while promoting infrastructure
to boost official trade. In this regard, during the recent
visit of U Thang both countries decided to set up joint
trade committee to further bolster trade.[lviii]
In
addition to the TKK road, there are several other projects
in various stages. India
first showed interest in exporting energy from Myanmar in
1999. Currently,
feasibility studies have been done on the Tamanthi
hydroelectric project located on the Chindwin River.
The proposal calls for a 1200MW capable facility
critically located, about 80 miles from Nagaland.
It could reduce the power shortages in the Indian
Northeast.[lix]
Another promising proposal is the Yeywa
hydroelectric, near Mandalay.[lx]
Currently, there are no shipping links between
Eastern India and Myanmar due to lack of volume.
However this could change within in a few years.
There is joint proposal to create the Kaladan River
Project. The
navigable Kaladan River flows from Mizoram to Sitwee and
provides an ideal path for linking the Northeast to the
sea. This
project involves the upgrading and development of Sitwee (Akyab)
port and potentially Kyaukpuo.
A road and a gas pipeline could also run along the
route. This
project would provide an alternate route for goods to
travel to and from the Northeast.[lxi]
Myanmar & beyond
The
renewal of ties with Myanmar extends beyond the security
of the Northeast and local economic development.
India seeks to reinforce cultural ties with
Myanmar. The
RSS (Rashtriya
Swayamsevak Sangh) has
opened its offices in Yangon with government sanction to
demonstrate the common links between Hinduism and
Buddhism.[lxii]
Myanmar is a significant part of India's "Look
East" policy. The
“Look East” policy started in 1991, coincided with the
end of the Cold War and India's economic liberalization.
India's engagement of Southeast Asia has economic,
political and strategic components.[lxiii]
Myanmar is India's gateway to the East therefore
India – Myanmar ties will determine the success of
India’s focus in Southeast Asia.
Myanmar's Foreign Minister, U Win Aung, readily
accepted that his country served as a link between the
various regions of Asia.
The
Indian government has always encouraged Myanmar's
transition into a democracy. However, harsh criticism of
the military regime resulted in loss of influence,
increasing Chinese presence and lack of cooperation on
mutual issues. As
time passed, the government of India reconciled its
objective of a democratic Myanmar with a friendly
cooperative neighbor.
Indian policy changed from one track involving the
pro-democracy forces to engagement of the regime for
common benefit. India
continues to maintain ties with Ang Sang Suu Kyi.
Simultaneously, it keeps a watchful eye on the
activities of the Myanmar’s dissident students in
political asylum in India to prevent unlawful activities.
India recently arrested Mr. Soe Myint in New Delhi.
He is accused of hijacking a Thai Airways flight 11
years ago to focus world attention on Myanmar.[lxiv]
India
has developed ties with Myanmar's military.
The landmark visits occurred between January and
July 2000 when General Muang Aye visited Shillong and
General V.P Malik visited Myanmar. Shortly after, Admiral Sushil Kumar, Chief of Naval Staff,
visited Myanmar and held meetings with his counterpart.
In the latter part of 2001, Major General Ashok
Vasudev, Director General of Armed Forces Training,
visited Myanmar with a delegation representing all three
armed services.[lxv]
In February 2002, Maj-Gen. Thura Shwe Mann attended
Land and Naval Systems exhibition - DEFEXPO.[lxvi]
In addition to developing high level contacts with
Myanmar's military, India has offered to provide
battlefield training to soldiers and supplies uniforms.
Also India is leasing to Myanmar a helicopter
squadron and help in maintaining Russian military
equipment. Myanmar’s
troops based in the regions of the Northeast are supplied
food rations by India.[lxvii]
The
Indian government is actively cultivating ties with
Myanmar's ruling SPDC regime.
Mr. Jaswant Singh, Minister of External Affairs,
visited Myanmar in 2000, inaugurated the India - Myanmar
Friendship Road and held high level meetings with the
rulers of Myanmar. In
November 2000, General Muang Aye visited India for the
second time and was officially hosted in New Delhi.[lxviii]
Following the initial meetings, there have been
numerous visits by both sides involving ministries of
agriculture, science and technology.
Most recent was a significant visit by U Wing Aung,
Myanmar's foreign minister, to further cement close
relations and hold discussions on a wide variety of topics
ranging from trade, infrastructure, and counter insurgency
cooperation. Also
India has extended to Myanmar $15 million in credit for
purchase of goods. This
credit is being fully utilized and may be increased.
The
growing Indian economy has a constant demand for energy.
Myanmar can fulfill some of India's needs in this
respect as well. Currently, talks are focused on the
development of a pipeline to harness the offshore gas
reserves near Rakhine (Arakan) province.[lxix]
The A1 block is considered to have a potential of
32 tcf (trillion cubic feet) of natural gas of which 22tcf
can be harnessed. GAIL India limited, ONGC Videsh Limited
(OVL) own shares in the field along with Kogas (Korean
Gas) and Daewoo International Gas of Korea.
Currently there are two proposed pipelines routes,
one crosses Bangladesh's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and
another that bypasses it.[lxx]
"Let it facilitate not just the movement of goods
and services but also ideas. Let it enrich the unbroken
cultural continuity and ethos that our three countries
share in common. Let us jointly begin the process of
weaving our part of Asia together, through multimodal
infrastructural links"
- Jaswant Singh [lxxi]
In
addition to regional ASEAN, India participates in two sub
regional groups the Ganges Mekong Cooperation (GMC) and
Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand Economic
Cooperative (BIMST-EC).
The GMC formed in November 2000, includes India,
Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.
The goal of the group is to link the countries by
road, goods transit and tourism.[lxxii]
The other sub regional group is BIMSTEC, linking
the Bay of Bengal countries.
The goal of this group is primarily trade. A free trade agreement was mooted in the New Delhi meeting in
2000. In the
upcoming (2004) meeting of BIMSTEC, Nepal and Bhutan are
expected to join. This further increases the link between the Indian
subcontinent, the Bay of Bengal community and Southeast
Asia.[lxxiii]
The
nucleus common to both GMC and BIMSTEC consists of India,
Myanmar, and Thailand. A productive triangular
relationship between the three seems to be evolving.
On April 4, 2002, Guwathi airport was rechristened
an international airport with the first international
flight taking off for Bangkok. Myanmar’s government has
favored the development of Daiwe as a deep-water port
primarily for refueling of eastbound Indian and Thai cargo
ships.[lxxiv]
The three countries have also met and held meetings
discussing the development of multimodal transport
systems. These
systems will link the countries by air, sea, and road.[lxxv]
The most notable one is the India - Thailand
Roadway. The
proposed roadway starts from Moreh in Manipur to Bagan in
Myanmar and ends at Mae Sot in Thailand.[lxxvi]
The state governments of the Northeast referred to the
road as a "highway of opportunity."
This ambitious project is to be completed by 2005
and will improve connections between isolated regions and
integrate economies.
The highway will be funded under the aegis of the
GMC (Ganges Mekong Cooperation) with funds provided by the
three countries and private organizations.[lxxvii]
Besides
BIMEST-EC and GMC another sub-regional grouping is the
Kunming Initiative. The
Kunming Initiative (named for the 1999 conference held in
city of Kunming capital of Yunnan Province, China) was
formed to encourage economic growth in the quadrangle of
China, India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.
It was at this meeting that the idea of
resurrecting the Stillwell Road was mooted.
The Stillwell road is a tortuous 1700 Km road built
by the allies in WWII to outflank Japanese positions in
the region. Currently
the road is in disarray but if the multitude of obstacles
could be overcome, the road could potentially become a
major trade artery connecting the China, Myanmar and
India.[lxxviii]
Any advance in progress by either BIMST-EC, GMC or
the Kunming initiative would benefit Northeast India and
further bolster India's policy towards Myanmar since it is
the common country in all the aforementioned forums.
Sino
- Myanmar ties (1988 – present)
Political Interests
Deng
Xiao Ping's visit in 1988 marked a major change in Chinese
policy towards Myanmar.
Facilitating the change was the international
pressure on Myanmar.
Pre 1988, there had been numerous high level visits
and the Chinese support for the CPB against Myanmar’s
government. After
1988, there was an increasing realization that Myanmar
could serve as a conduit for Chinese trade and development
in the Southern - Central regions, Chinese support to the
CPB waned and allowed the Tatmadaw to successfully focus
on other insurgent groups.
Around the same time, Myanmar's new government
sought to increase its international contacts to
rejuvenate a stagnant economy.
Widespread condemnation over nullification of
elections and brutal suppression of the ensuing protests
prevented the government from reaching out to the West.
Therefore, China - Myanmar relations were forged
out of a convergence of convenience.
Since
1988, there have been an increasing number of high level
visits and delegations that have succeeded in bringing the
two nations closer. Chinese
delegates have interacted with their counterparts, science
and technology and trade agreements have been signed. In early 1996, Senior General Than Shwe visited Beijing for
the first time in a historic visit.
The
year 2000 marks the 50th anniversary of China - Myanmar
diplomatic ties. In this historic year, reciprocal visits by the leaders took
place. General
Muang Aye visited Mainland China and Hong Kong.[lxxix]
Similarly, Vice President Hu Jintao visited Myanmar
for the first time and bolstered relations between the two
countries. It
was during this visit that both countries signed Science
and Technology, Tourism and Trade agreements.
Relations between the two countries were hailed as
"paukphaw" (fraternal).[lxxx]
In the following year, 2001, warm relations
culminated as President Jiang Zemin visited Myanmar for 4
days. During
the visit, the two leaders spoke about domestic and
international issues affecting both countries, reflected
on the close relations and signed agreements to maintain
strong ties.[lxxxi]
[lxxxii]
In
his first foreign visit in 2003, Senior General Than Shwe
along with Secretary 1 Lt General Khin Nyunt, Foreign
Minister U Win Aung and other high-ranking officials
visited China for a six day trip.
Myanmar’s delegation interacted with high-ranking
Chinese officials and reflected on the close and positive
ties between the two countries.
During the visit, several agreements on cooperation
in the control of narcotics, public health were signed and
China offered Myanmar a $200 million in preferential loans
to further boost ties.[lxxxiii]
Additionally, Senior General Than Shwe met with Vice
President Hu Jintao (at the time newly appointed Secretary
General of the Communist Party).
He expressed Myanmar’s support for the “One
China” policy and favored reunification of China.[lxxxiv]
Military
Interests
“China will check Indian attempts to dominate the Indian Ocean. India
seeks to develop its Navy to rival large global powers.
This is something we cannot accept. We are not prepared to
let the Indian Ocean become India’s Ocean.”
-General Zhao Zhanqui, Director of the Chinese
Academy of Military Sciences, 1993 [lxxxv]
The
1990's ushered in increased China - Myanmar military
interaction. China became the largest supplier of arms to the Burmese
army. China has supplied Myanmar with about $1.2 billion
in weapons. China is largely responsible for the expansion
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