Strategy For Incremental Influence In Asia

Captain (R) Bharat Verma^*

American Positions In Asia Become Untenable

In the unfolding geo-political scenario, two major forces are driving the world today: Modernization and globalization on one hand and terrorism on the other.  The attacks on America on September 11 are significant on two counts.  First, is the fact that terrorists are using modern means to hit their adversaries globally; second, it is the beginning of the first major war in the age of globalization.  There is an inherent contradiction in this war. Modernization and globalization processes automatically embrace all aspects of life. Be they political, economic, cultural or civilisational.  The terrorists primarily wage this war to prevent such evolution in values. Yet to conduct their campaign successfully, they perforce remain wedded to every tool that the means of modernization and globalization offer.  To underestimate the relationship between globalization and mass scale terrorism is a grave folly as the latter wants to subvert the former by using the tools offered by it. Therefore, global terrorism is the watershed that requires coordinated global response. Unfortunately, Washington continues to pursue a wrongly prioritized agenda, neglecting security concerns of others. Due to this indifference, the sheen has worn off making it a nowhere war.

It is not too difficult to imagine how this war by America will impact. First, American writ in Central Asia stands diluted as it continues to fund and support Pakistan. This blunder ensures that Afghanistan faces renewed turmoil, and India enhanced cross-border terrorism. Meanwhile, the Taliban regroups. Fundamentalists take over Balochistan and NWFP. In these areas the Taliban writ runs larger than life. Girls are banned from educational institutions. Music is taboo once again. Pakistan Army, ISI and the Mosque feed these fundamentalist forces on the sly while paying lip service to Washington. Nuclear and missile technology is regularly bartered between North Korea and Pakistan at the behest of a devious China while American administration demonstrates its helplessness by issuing toothless statements. MMA persists in export of fundamentalist ideology. The irony is that anti-American sentiments snowball in Pakistan at the cost of and with the help of American funds. In fact it is business as usual for the Jihad factory while Uncle Sam lives in a dream world of his own creation with a pat a day for Islamabad’s support!

Second, unlike India, Chinese leadership has always demonstrated clarity of purpose and the political will to ensure its supremacy in Asia. Dominance of Asia is the springboard that will launch it as the next superpower by the end of 2020. Its lack of ambiguity takes into account that at some stage there will be a military clash with the United States. The sole purpose of the Bush administration’s announcement of China being a strategic competitor is to contain and finally whittle down the growing challenge to the American leadership. If there is one country that can upset the applecart of Western hegemony led by America in the near future, it is China. Beijing has shrewdly interwoven support of fundamentalist Islamic and rogue regimes with acute anti-American sentiments within its ambitions.   At the same time, the recent announcement at a delicate stage of negotiations by North Korea that it possesses nuclear weapons was at the behest of its patron, China. This innocent revelation set alarm bells ringing in the West. Who should they blame, their frontline ally Pakistan, or the strategic competitor China or its subordinate state North Korea?

Third, the American strategy to consolidate its supreme position hinges on systematically breaking one after another all Islamic military powers, while simultaneously counter-balancing China. The western media and ‘scholars’ have started churning out anti-Iran literature, even as Pentagon positions the military to bomb the daylights out of Iraq on one pretext or the other. With the advent of Islamic terrorism as a global tool by non-state actors, an international order led by America stands challenged. It is under stress. Prior to Nine Eleven, it was the devious spread of Chinese influence that threatened the world pecking order. Today Western supremacy faces stiff opposition from both. Albeit in theory American military and economic power looks unassailable, in practice Islamic fundamentalists cannot be fought with superior air power alone, because the network employs techniques of creeping invasion. They have again crept back to general area Afghanistan-Pakistan silently unnoticed like cancer.

Fourth, despite the unprecedented status enjoyed by the United States in terms of economic, technological and military superiority, its response so far to the growing threat of terrorism appears to be inadequate.  This is primarily due to its false belief that it’s overwhelming preponderance in world affairs is adequate to take on Islamic Fundamentalism unilaterally.  Let’s look at Nine Eleven once again. The mightiest world power was attacked on its soil, considered the safest sanctuary in the world.  The attack was launched from the US territory. The weapon systems were civilian airplanes. The targets were thousands of innocent civilians in the buildings. No complex technologies or weapon platforms were employed. No state claimed the responsibility. That is the nature of threat posed by terrorism worldwide. Terrorist attacks are sudden, unexpected and difficult to predict. Hence, for America to retain its position of pre-eminence, it is essential to contain terrorism by assaulting it globally.  As terrorism threatens the present international order, American stakes are extremely high and its options limited. Unlike conventional conflict, war on terrorism requires a qualitatively different approach. To contain and finally eradicate terrorism, the United States needs to shift from unilateralist decision-making temptations to multilateral consensus since the scale and the nature of threat is both unique and global. Without trustworthy allies, this war cannot be conducted successfully to its logical conclusion.

Fifth, America by itself cannot maintain its global positions. A diplomat shot in Jordan. Soldiers dead in Kuwait even as an undercurrent of Islamic fundamentalist fervor is gaining ground there unannounced. Kenya bomb blast again. Bali took its toll. In Afghanistan rocket attacks are routine. Therefore, how does a white American salesman travel to West Asia to market his products? Frankly he does not anymore but sends his Asian colleague instead. An American Ambassador quit her job in Islamabad, as her daughters were not safe. Similarly white tourists cannot safely travel in most of Islamic Asia. When Americans cannot travel for routine business and trips since threat to life looms large, how can Washington maintain its global positions effectively in Asia? The Post Iraq / Gulf War II scenario shall further heighten these fears. Withdrawal symptoms as in sending Asian colleagues to conduct business in West Asia will multiply in times to come.

 If Asia is where the geo-economic action is, than diminishing American presence will necessitate occupying the vacated strategic high ground by a democratic secular power to maintain the overall balance. This assumes significance, as Asia is the next geo-economic hub of the world on two counts. First, Asia will be the principal consumer of energy by 2020.  Second by the same period it will boast of the largest population of young and working-age-group people in the world. Both factors are sure signs of the tremendous growth potential that exists. The question that Indian analysts need to answer is whether American positions are becoming untenable? For example, in post-Afghanistan era, with Pakistan’s ability to export terrorism to Central Asia, Bali and the adjunct areas and grooming Bangladesh as its subsidiary, the American influence appears to be on the wane. In West and East Asia too, anti-American anti-white feelings are multiplying fast. Therefore, the second question that Indians should grapple with is how to occupy the strategic space that American retreat creates in Asia? Or do we allow this void to be filled by China and its subordinate states? We definitely should not. Hence, unless New Delhi fashions a farsighted strategy to accomplish incremental influence in Asia, we cannot fill this vacuum. If we don’t, then it is a straight jump from the frying pan (where we are stuck now) into the fire!

China’s Race for Supremacy in Asia

It is clearly a strategic fire cleverly stoked to encircle as well as engulf India that marginalizes it as a subcontinent power. To dominate Asia, China contained India within the subcontinent by boosting the capabilities and hatred of Pakistan. This disallows New Delhi to expand its influence in Central Asia as the Chinese use Pakistan as their Israel. By transferring nukes and missiles and other equipment to Islamabad, Beijing skillfully transformed the India-China nuclear debate into an India-Pakistan contest. While China overtly supports the monarchy in Nepal to gain geo-economic access, with the help of ISI and North Korean Intelligence, it covertly funds the Maoist rebellion, which is inimical to Indian interests. With Bangladesh as its new surrogate, it intends to create Pakistan-II on our East. To dominate the Asian market, it has flooded it with cheap subsidized goods, gradually rendering local manufacturers out of business and simultaneously, forcing the exit of Indian merchandise. Nepal stands out as a success story in this strategy. To emerge as the supreme power in Asia, China’s policy is two pronged - contain India and restrain Japan. Therefore, China will fight India to the last Pakistani! To counter India’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean, Beijing uses Myanmar’s international isolation to further encircle India.

Similarly, by transferring nuclear and missile technology to countries like Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and North Korea, it has forced America to police a larger area. This in turn distracts American concentration away from Beijing with regard to proliferation of sensitive technology. At the same time, China through a calibrated geo-economic policy, enticed huge Western investments. This besides spelling prosperity, acts as an insurance cover geo-politically. With astute handling of its diplomatic rhetoric, China has kept the worst memories of the Japanese aggression alive. Aggressive promotion of pacifist tendencies and propping up of North Korea against Japan is a sinister repeat of Pakistan against India. Thus, by intelligently fishing in the troubled Islamic waters and constraining Western allies like Japan and South Korea, it diminishes American influence considerably.

India stands constrained otherwise too. This is due to the negative demographic profile in our neighborhood. For example on our West, Pakistan’s population that was 74 millions in 1975, more than doubled to 156 millions in 2000. Estimated to touch a whopping 263 millions in 2025.  Further, with a failing economy approximately 80 millions will be unemployed by 2010. Couple this with the fact that 35 millions will be in the age group of 16 to 24 years – an age group from which military and the militants, both recruit. Thus the only employment exchange open (in a state on a tail spin) for this youth is the Jihad Factory. History is witness to the horrendous output of this murderous factory. This scenario impacts adversely on the security of both India and Russia. Similarities also exist in Bangladesh (Pakistan-II) and Indonesia. Indonesia, which houses the largest Islamic population in the world will double its base from 136 million in 1975 to 274 millions in 2025. Bangladesh with a population of 76 millions in 1975 is likely to go as high as 179 millions in 2025. The bottom line remains that the Jihadi outfits continue to enjoy the luxury of surplus recruits as their cannon fodder! The Bangladesh jihad surplus is eminently visible through the creeping invasion that is changing demography in Assam, West Bengal, the Northeast and Bihar through illegal immigration. It is, therefore, essential that New Delhi cater to potential consequences of this adverse demographic profile in its strategic calculus.

Strategy for Incremental Influence in Asia

There are allegations against the Indian Track II / strategic community that it stands hijacked by foreign countries. This is purely a perception gap, mainly on two counts. First, the GoI has not put its equity in this community. Second, it is fashionable to use the phrase national interest in every fifth sentence, though New Delhi is yet to identify what constitutes our national interests. Therefore, the strategic community as well as the media flounders. In the absence of cohesive interaction between the GoI and the rest, it becomes difficult to appreciate why certain aspects need to be argued logically and forcefully in the national and international arena. For instance if foreign lobbies propagate that a stable Pakistan is in our interest or India planned to dismember West Pakistan in 1971, the falsehood is never countered. To negate subtle dissemination of ideas or doctrines that damage our interests, ignorance by our citizenry can never be bliss! It is not difficult to rationally derive our national interests provided one views the world from New Delhi instead of Washington, Beijing, Brussels or Islamabad. As an example, if we develop a strategic partnership with Japan, Washington finds it palatable. But our alliance with Iran is unpalatable. Yet, looking from New Delhi outward, both are significant relationships, though in different ways. Very often the mistake we make is to borrow a ready made analysis from the West! The most powerful media in Asia can prove to be of immense help in furthering national interests if New Delhi can identify them. To keep defending the massive military mobilization without neutralizing cross border terrorism was counter productive and lowered India’s credibility. Voluminous rhetoric can never camouflage reality.

Simply expressed, India’s national interest lies in emerging by 2020 as Asia’s alternate hub of power: The most happening place in Asia, both as an economic as well as a military power. This is essential because in the current century, the action shifts to Asia. Hence, a nation that influences Asia, ultimately impacts globally.

National ambitions to achieve incremental influence demand a do-able strategy. Our demographic profile is eminently suitable to restore the Asian geo-political balance, which is gradually tilting towards China and the Islamic fundamentalists. Though the size of the population by itself does not confer great power status, a large young population is a prerequisite to evolve as a major player. India’s fertility rate at about 3.1 births per woman will remain ahead of China and the United States beyond 2020. After the initiation of the war on terrorism, America that had so far kept itself young through immigration of skilled people is not likely to continue to enjoy that luxury. First, the scare of mass scale terrorism integrated with a growing Chinese influence will force it to withdraw within Fortress America and pull up the draw bridges. Second, the growing integration of Asia as one large economic bazaar is likely to make emigration less attractive by 2010. Similarly, the gap between China’s populations, which was fifty percent larger than the Indian population in 1975, will reduce by 2025, with the Red Dragon at 1.5 billion and the largest democracy competing closely with a population base of 1.3 billion people. India will not only reach a closer balance with China but will be a nation of the young while the latter ages rapidly. The young spearhead technological breakthroughs, field militaries, sustain casualties, create adequate labor force, usher in innovations, bring in new thinking and entrepreneurial zeal that enables a nation to project its power. China’s age group between 15-24 peaked in 1990. India’s 15-24 age groups will not only exceed China’s in 2010 but also approximately be twice as large as the combined totals of America, West Europe, Russia and Japan by 2025. At present, the median age for developed countries is approximately 37 years as against China’s 30 and India’s 24.  Thus, India is naturally self sufficient for the next three to four decades where working age population is concerned. Unlike America we do not need immigrants to generate national power.

If New Delhi can harness this positive demographic profile to its advantage by honing it into a high quality human resource, then India will dominate Asia.  If not, this population will be an unbearable burden threatening internal strife. Our mantra should be based on fighting the terrorists to the finish and rapid development at the same time. Mass scale terrorism hampers progress and impinges on individual freedom. Attempts to enforce Stone Age Talibanisation impacts on the primary source of wealth of a nation. The Indian Army, tasked since 1947 to keep the civil administration functional in the Northeast and J&K despite insurgency and terrorism has delivered admirably. Since the government is unable to exploit the advantage created by the Army at a huge cost in terms of lives lost and the drain of money from the exchequer, we lose not only military surplus in J&K but also revenue worth 1.5 billion dollars that would accrue annually from tourism. Illiteracy, lack of infrastructure and unemployment do not contribute to great power aspirations. Neither does rhetoric!

Another major contradiction that lowers the tempo of India’s rise is the disconnect that exists between the youthful nation and the ageing political leadership. An ageing political leadership does not go to war even if it stares it in the face. For the young in India, the fundamental issue is not Kashmir anymore but Pakistan. Elders turn a blind eye to this fact. The significance of the fact that Pakistan became an issue for the first time in a state election is lost on both Musharraf and our elders. By the same token, while New Delhi struggles to achieve eight percent per annum growth, a young industrialist sets fifteen percent as the yardstick. Clearly, the perception gap between the older and the younger generation’s aspirations are almost fifty percent in all respects!  If we can impart dynamism to the national decision-making process along with rapid privatization, New Delhi’s growth may accelerate to eleven or twelve percent. Our society is individualistic by nature. Therefore, privatization is the key ingredient for growth as it is natural to our genius. Simultaneously, we should scrap Article 370 in J&K and the Inner Line Permit system in the Northeast. A free demographic flow will enable a composite Indian culture to evolve. Both current concepts are flawed, as they remain vulnerable to a strategy of ethnic cleansing by Pakistan and Bangladesh. Such bold measures internally will position India at the top by 2015 - ahead of China in many ways. China’s population is set to rapidly age after 2010 and it shall grow old before it grows rich unlike Japan. India has both, the skills and the potential to grow rich before it grows old. Unleash it.  

China will face major problems within this decade. First, economic prosperity is a prelude to a demand for democracy that is growing. A natural corollary to economic freedom is political freedom. Also, with economic prosperity, religion re-surfaces. In this case Buddhism will dominate China again.  The fact that Beijing has so far skirted the issue shows the prevalent insecurity. Second, as islands of prosperity increase, the central authority of Beijing will stand diluted. Third, the Chinese hinterland, which lives in abject poverty with instruments of the state practically non-functional, will face social instability, adding to Beijing’s woes. Further, gender inequality will leave fifteen million young men by 2020 without brides causing new societal tensions – a fall out of a compulsory one-child norm. These negative factors will witness slowing down of China in the near future as demand for political freedom gains momentum. Admittedly, at this stage, it is difficult to predict whether China unravels or faces a fair share of anarchy in its far-flung territories. In comparison, India’s hinterland already enjoys political freedom and shall gradually embrace economic prosperity. This will integrate and consolidate the state. Therefore, our strategy vis-à-vis China needs to be two-pronged. First, we must scrutinize aspects like the Chinese hinterland, re-debate Tibet, study the activities of Falun Gong, and consolidate our interaction at economic and military levels with Taiwan or wrest Myanmar out of China’s sphere of influence. Roll back of increasing Chinese sway in our vicinity is essential.  In this game plan, a selective proliferation of sensitive technology should be considered actively. The Chinese propose an all weather friendship with Pakistan. So should we, with many. Period. Second, at the same time, increase economic cooperation with China wherever beneficial. Large inter-connectivity between the two huge markets in Asia will generate sufficient momentum and stability to the world economy.

Beijing has for many decades indulged in supporting states and non-state actors on our periphery and devised strategies to contain or unravel us.  Primarily, it is always more economical to fight wars through someone else. Since India is the only country in Asia that can compete and counter-balance China, we have and continue to receive its undivided attention.  However, so far China has not succeeded in its strategic objective of either unraveling India or boxing it within the subcontinent. With sluggishness setting in, for reasons cited earlier, and New Delhi’s embarkation on a modernization of its military with extended reach, Beijing’s chances stand diminished. India’s generation change in motion now, will practically nullify the Chinese ambitions. The Red Dragon may discover that there is no-cost-benefit-ratio in further confrontation with an economically powerful and militarily geared up India. In fact, with rapid accretion of military power by us, a distinct possibility exists, that both neighbors end up carving out their spheres of influence in Asia!

Though our values have remained consistent since 1947, the American discovery of shared values concept should not surprise us in the emerging geo-political scenario. It is also true, as a journalist friend keeps reminding me, that India does not have a spat with America. The reality is that India is in many ways a successful and workable model of Western democracies in Asia. Despite the fact that practically every nation from West Europe to North America dipped its greasy fingers in lending support to forces of dismemberment in the Northeast and Jammu & Kashmir from time to time. It is a great tribute to that most formidable military machine, the Indian Army that kept the Union intact despite the indulgence by the most powerful armada of nations, which were hell-bent upon mischief. The irony is that the very same Americans today hone their skills at our Army training school for Counter Insurgency and Jungle Warfare. The wheel has turned full circle!

Asymmetric targeting capabilities over long distance and ability to coerce and intimidate has placed strategic leverage in the hands of the terrorists. Traditional partners like Turkey and Saudi Arabia deny facilities against Iraq to the USA. Widespread anti-American feelings are gaining ground from South Korea and West Asia to Pakistan. China is working to replace American influence in Asia-Pacific. Such denials in the geo-economic hub of the world are mounting pressure on the United States to form an informal alliance with non-traditional partners like India. Therefore, New Delhi must pursue its national interests unmindful of the Americans on two counts. First, frankly the US needs to dovetail its interests in Asia with our interests.  For example, there are many security concerns we share and can use it to our mutual advantage as in the Indian Ocean or Look East policy. But vis-à-vis Pakistan there is a major clash. True in the case of Iran too, which is a valuable ally in Central Asia. Second, we require initiation of a policy that occupies the strategic space vacated by America as its positions in Asia gradually become untenable.

A small country like Pakistan occupies 70 percent of our security canvas.  The ISI devotes major energy to unraveling us. Initially, this was limited to Jammu & Kashmir and the Northeast. Now it is the whole country. Islamabad, with the tacit help and financial support of Beijing and Riyadh spreads mayhem in India through PoK, Nepal and Bangladesh. In this game, American funds and support are a boon to Pakistan.  Pakistan not only wants to act as a Sarpanch of the subcontinent but also of Central Asia. Its activities have spread to countries like Burma, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Pakistani designs will ensure that Indonesia gravitates toward ethnic cleansing. Bangladesh is being quietly developed into a clone of Pakistan. Joining the ranks shortly shall be Indonesia. The American rhetoric of an Indo-Pak dialogue has become so repetitive that the Bush Administration has actually started believing in it as a serious possibility! Pakistan also wants to earn royalty out of piped oil and gas supplies to India through its territory, so that it can develop resources to further inject Jihadi poison to destroy our secular societal fabric. India is a vast country with adequate resources, talent, brains, unlimited skills, and a positive demographic profile. Unfortunately, small thinkers inherited its governance; bit players. In fifty-five years, the elders have created more problems than solved. It is time for India to move on. Therefore, we must craft a strategy for dominance that propels us to the prime slot in Asia by 2015.

First, ensure that Pakistan does not exist in the hatred mode. Reformat it even if that means physical disarming. It consumes far too much energy, which is a major drag on India’s progress. Spin offs will be many. China will lose one paw and huge investments. Maoists in Nepal will lose their momentum. Bangladesh will develop an affinity with India. Ethnic cleansing will be deactivated in Indonesia. That in turn will take the heat off Malaysia. Riyadh will rethink its funding to terrorist organizations. Ultimately, our writ should run up to Kazakhstan. This will neutralize the historical route of invasion and ensure a stable Central Asia, permitting the construction of pipelines via Iran to the energy hungry subcontinent. The other key players in Central Asia, Russia and Iran, shall equally reap benefits.

Second, to be the most happening place in Asia, New Delhi should unleash an ambitious plan to rapidly upgrade the infrastructure to attract foreign direct investment. The strategy should be to encourage and make it possible for our immediate neighbors in our Look East policy, West Asia and key strategic partners to invest in India on a preferential basis.  Similarly, our investments should flow to them. At the same time, we should bypass Pakistan in SAARC and go bilateral. These actions affect a positive impact by integrating countries in our vicinity, with India acting as the hub. Intelligent geo-economic policy ensures geo-political dividends, increasing area of influence. Also, investments from diverse sources act as a guarantee against political blackmail by the powerful.

Last but not the least, accretion of extraordinary military power and its effective employment to ensure multi-front energy security, defense of the expanding economic zone, and use without remorse is essential. Military power is the ultimate weapon of the state. Let us build it up to its full potential. Today, India is in a unique position to access military technology worldwide. Let us use this opportunity to retrofit the Armed Forces with the most modern and lethal equipment available, making them the most potent military machine in the region. Simultaneously, train and equip militarily the defense forces of friendly nations – this will increase inter-operability besides being a fruitful economic investment with beneficial political overtones. Our politicians should focus their energies on external irritants like Pakistan that want to destroy India, instead of wasting them internally on non-issues. Also, given the hostile environment that we face, a militarisation of the Indian mind is vital, to avoid the pitfalls of communalization of the polity. Therefore, India must pick up the sword once again, a sword that a former Emperor laid to rest centuries ago in victory.

^*The writer is the editor of India Defence Review. 

This piece appeared in the India Defence Review and has been reproduced here with the permission of the editor.