Leila-1: Scenario

About six months ago, Indian intelligence agencies were able to discern the creation of a new and highly destabilizing strategy at the headquarters of Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) agency. According to information available this strategy revolved around the use of terrorist strikes in the bulk of India.  The planned terrorist attacks would be "bipolar" and "tandem" in nature, i.e. religious icons on both sides of the communal spectrum would be hit in quick succession. According to Indian intelligence analysts these strikes aim to cause communal violence. The ISI planners feel that a serious bout of violence could polarize the polity itself and quite possibly weaken the Indian mobilization.

Government analysts were able to identify possible lines of action in the plan, and though the intelligence services could not actually get hold of the real operational plan at ISI HQ, an analysis team was able to draw up a list of possible targets.

Of these targets, about 15 were classified as "very high probability" targets and police presence was increased at these sites. A central team visited key security officials and apprised them of the situation.

Soon after this additional intelligence work revealed the transit of an ISI terrorist cell toward Bangladesh. Despite securing the cooperation of the Bangladeshi intelligence service, the terrorist cell evaded capture. This caused a stir at the Ministry of Home Affairs. A fresh analysis of the situation by experts at the MHA now pointed to a possible change in the operational strategy used by the ISI in terrorist attacks. The new tactics were now believed to involve using two teams, one for reconnaissance and the other for strike. Despite this brilliant insight, no new leads were obtained and the investigation stalled.

However amidst all this, quite by accident a security unit in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) arrested a tailor who was stitching what appeared to be “suicide-bomber” jackets. Further investigations by detectives in the Jammu and Kashmir Police revealed the presence of a conspiracy hatched by the Pakistani sponsored terrorist group, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) to carry out suicide bombings in J&K. The J&K security forces immediately realized that this was an attempt to destabilize the newly elected government. They focused all their energies and with considerable help from the Central Government, the entire scheme was foiled. At the end of a month-long investigation, twenty-five people were charged with conspiring to carry out suicide bomb attacks and about three hundred were charged as accessories to the crime.

These arrests and the subsequent judicial proceedings evoked much sympathy for the accused in Pakistan. There were a number of demonstrations in Pakistan demanding the release of the detainees. Equally vociferous were the protests of the various international human rights groups. In Jammu and Kashmir itself, the All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC) jumped into the fray and before long most of the APHC groups were supporting the protests by the relatives of the accused.

At this juncture the JeM very abruptly announced responsibility for the attempt. The Amir of the Jaish-e-Mohammed, Maulana Masood Azhar, in a speech in Chaklala eulogized those currently under arrest for the attempted suicide bombings. Security force personnel saw this admission of failure by Maulana Azhar as a sign that they had achieved measurable success. This knowledge created a feeling of relief in the Jammu and Kashmir security administration and slowly the crisis wound down.

However the joy of this occasion was short lived, as soon after an ominous sign appeared. While pursuing a tip from the Bangladeshi intelligence service, the Indian government had passed on the name of a Thai national thought to be mixed up with the ISI to the Thai Government. This man quite suddenly turned up dead in a hotel in Bangkok. After heroin residue was found in his suitcase, the case was almost dismissed as drug-related murder, however after further investigation by the Thai intelligence service, explosive traces were also found inside the dead man's suitcase.

The Thai Government passed on a sample of these traces to the Indian Central Forensic Science Lab (CFSL). The scientists at CFSL established the residue to be a form of RDX manufactured in the US in the early 80s. However inquiries by Indian police officials revealed that the company went bankrupt in 1991 and that no records of its sales existed. Even the US-BATF pleaded helplessness in the matter.

Almost in cue with this strange development, another intelligence input arrived pointing to the possibility that something quite sinister was afoot in Jammu and Kashmir as well. Analysis of the new information suggested that quite possibly the entire `Suicide Bomber Plot' so carefully unveiled was little more than a "red-herring", a feint. 

Just as the security services were grinding through the information at their disposal events overtook them. At 0700 Hrs IST on 29th December (in our simulated time) 5 IAF bases were simultaneously attacked by `Fidayeen’ squads. Later within the hour nine Rashtriya Rifles camps are attacked also. In most cases the `fidai’ squads are intercepted by perimeter security, however in one case at a particular RR garrison, the Fidayeen manage to penetrate the security screen and storm an annual conference of Army and J&K Police officers. The resulting carnage leaves several senior officers dead.

As news of the attacks spreads like wildfire, a J&K police unit in Srinagar under the command of a police officer whose relative is killed in the morning raid on the RR garrison loses all sense of discipline. This unit opens fire on demonstrators from a constituent in the APHC. This shootout leaves 10 people dead and about 50 injured. The J&K police unit is disarmed by the State Home Minister and the DGP and some police commandos, however even this prompt action is not sufficient to prevent the rioting that breaks out in Srinagar.

A number of contacts ensue between the government in New Delhi and the Srinagar administration. Much information exchanged and orders for a higher level of readiness are issued.

While all this madness is going on the Prime Minister (PM) is having tea and taking in the brisk morning air with the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister at his official residence in Lucknow. In our scenario, the Prime Minister is temporarily holding the home affairs portfolio as his colleague; the Minister Home Affairs (MHA) is being operated on in a hospital in New York City.

The Prime Minister and the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister are discussing the outcome of the recent election, where a coalition has won a working majority. Accompanying the Prime Minister is his principal political advisor, the former Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu state. Also on discussion table are possible issues that may arise when the Uttar Pradesh state cabinet has to be divided among the coalition partners. As the reports come in the Prime Minister's staff quickly inform the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister gets on the line to the J&K Chief Minister and has a brief discussion. He assures the J&K Chief Minister of all the support he needs. He also talks to the Home Secretary and asks him to give the appropriate inputs in writing to him in one hour.

The Raksha Mantri (Defense Minister) is in a meeting with the Defense Secretary, the Secretary Defense Production & Supply and the Scientific Advisor to Raksha Mantrayala (Ministry of Defense). They are discussing various administrative details. Upon hearing the news, the Defense Minister summons his military attaché who immediately gives him a briefing that he has just received from the intelligence agencies. After reading the briefing the Defense Minister discusses the events with the assembled staff.

The Finance Minister is out of the country. He is attending a summit of the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland. At the time of the attacks, he is actually on the phone with the Governor of the RBI. They are discussing possible adjustments to the RBI interest rates. There is much cause for worry; the year has been a slow one economically, investment hasn't lived up to expectations, and the pace of disinvestments is slow. The markets for their part are extremely skittish. The bears are calling the shots. There is an ASEAN meeting coming up within the week, the Min-Fin would like to see some new investments come from there, however things aren't looking too good as the Japanese are playing hardball and trying to capture a large government owned motor car manufacturer which has come up for disinvestment. Upon hearing the news from his personal assistant, the Min-Fin ends the telephone conversation with the Governor of the RBI and calls the Finance Secretary. They immediately begin discussing the market implications. In his office in New Delhi, the Finance Secretary turns on a cable channel that carries a special news bulletin on events. Finance Secy. calls up the `monitoring desk' at the ministry and pretty soon live feed on the markets is also put on screen. The Min-Fin begins dictate a letter to his personal assistant, the letter is addressed to the Prime Minister. He also asks the Indian Embassy in Geneva to get hold of an airplane to take him back to New Delhi.

The Minster for External Affairs is roused out of jet-lagged sleep. He has just returned from a ten-day trip to Europe. He rushes to the ministry, where the Foreign Secretary meets him. They both begin discussing the situation. The Minister External Affairs also contacts the Indian embassy in Pakistan to see if they have any inputs. They give him some information about the daily appointments of various leaders in Pakistan.

National Security Advisor calls an emergency meeting of National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) and the National Security Council Advisory Board (NSAB). Some personnel from the NSAB are unreachable, but the NSCS is up and running in about half an hour. The NSA listens to the first few snatches of conversation and then suddenly drops out with the instruction to give him an analysis in one hour. He also instructs the Chairman NSCS to take his place and asks the NSCS to remain in session until he personally relieves them.

Chief of Defense Staff calls a meeting of senior staff at the newly built Joint Defense Staff HQ. He asks them to begin analyzing the situation and to estimate response options. He gives them one hour to turn in their reports. He also calls up the operations room and raises the alert status to the highest possible level.

At 0800 Hours IST firefights break out at ten of the fifteen places of worship in the "very high probability targets" list. The intensity of the attacks prompts the security units protecting the places of worship to raise the alarm about the arrival of the first wave of terrorists. Though taking murderous losses from the high volume of fire, security personnel hold their ground and carry out frontal assaults on the approaching suicide bombers. As a result in most of the ten places, they are able to intercept the cells before they enter inside the place of worship. At one particular place of worship, exceptional bravery is displayed Naik Rinchen Gyatso and Constable Umed Mallah both of whom physically wrestle a suicide bomber and pull him away into a nearby scrap yard while their comrades hold back the rest of the fidayeen squad. Sadly as the bomber detonates the explosive both Naik Gyatso and Constable Mallah are killed.

Tragically at five places of worship, which are not on the "very high probability targets" list, the terrorist cells manage to get inside. Police forces responding to the terrorist attacks take heavy casualties but manage to kill the attackers. However the civilian body count at these five shrines adds up by conservative intelligence estimates to be about a 1000 people dead and about 3000 injured. In 4 places out of the 5, explosions have irreparably damaged the shrine.

An analysis of the reports received by the Home Ministry shows that the cells appear to consist of two suicide bombers and three armed assaulters. The pattern of the attacks appears to be as follows. The assaulters lay a screen of cover fire under which the suicide bombers advance. Once the bombers have penetrated the outer security ring the first suicide bomber detonates the explosives strapped to his body. This event completely shakes up the entire security ring. Exploiting this confusion the assaulters and the remaining suicide bomber now make a quick dash towards the sanctum sanctorum of the shrine.

As they enter the place of worship, the assaulters fire indiscriminately into the crowd of devotees. Once the remaining suicide bomber enters the sanctum sanctorum, he detonates explosives strapped to his body. After this the assaulters take cover behind the remaining devotees and fire at the police units approaching the scene. By drawing fire on their position in the middle of a crowd of hostages, they increase the number of civilian casualties.

Slowly police and emergency response units converge on the locations. The Media soon starts carrying reports of these events.

Within the hour, assessments start coming in, by 0820 Hours the NSAB and NSCS deliver preliminary assessment to the NSA. The secretaries in the MHA deliver assessments to the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister then proceeds to order the implementations of the most basic recommendations of the ministry secretaries.

The Chief Defense Staff is able to assemble an immediate action plan. He now calls for the readiness condition to be raised to level 4, implying a very high risk of conflict.

The Defense Minister receives another update from his military attaché attached to his office. He immediately orders the Defense Secretary and Secretary Defense Production and Supply to pull up the numbers for war reserves and accounts. He also calls up the ministers for energy and petroleum and asks them to provide him with the latest estimates of stocks for the same. The Defense Minister also orders all military units near major cities to stand ready to come to the aid of civil authority should the request be made.

The Min. Finance now orders the Finance Secretary to take all-available measures be taken to secure the Finance Ministry building itself. He then asks the Finance Secretary to close the stock markets for the day and his secretary emails the letter the Minister has just finished dictating to him.

The Minster External Affairs starts receiving condolence calls and messages from various countries. Several ambassadors also call him up to discuss the situation and some interesting conversations result. All of the regional foreign ministers including those of Nepal and Bangladesh call and indicate that their country will render whatever assistance is asked. The American secretary of state after expressing profound anguish over the loss of life indicates that he would like to make a quick trip to the region. The British Foreign secretary speaks nostalgically about the mistakes of the past and offers to assist in any way that may be desired. The European ambassadors all extend their condolences and sympathies. The Russian Foreign Minister offers his complete support. The Chinese Foreign Minister calls to express his "deepest sorrow" over the loss of life, he encourages India to do whatever it deems necessary to protect itself. The Pakistani High Commissioner calls up the Min. Ext. Affairs and expresses "deep anguish" over the events, and hopes that this tragedy will not "come between them as men", soon afterwards the Pakistani Foreign Minister calls and repeats the High Commissioner's statements, he also indicates that Gen. Musharraf would like to talk to the Prime Minister as soon as some time can be found. Iranian, Afghan, Central Asian communiqués all speak of "solidarity with the Indian people in this hour of suffering". Central European, African, South American, East Asian and Canadian communiqués all contain some permutation of the words "heartfelt grief shared with the Indian people". Canada offers investigative and technical assistance. Arabian states all send similar sounding messages of condolences stressing that each of them feels the loss "as surely as one would feel the loss of a brother". Israeli Foreign Minister and Chairman Yasser Arafat both extend messages of condolence and ask to speak personally to the Prime Minister, when this request cannot be acceded to, they leave messages for him.

Condolence messages appear to be pouring into embassies all over the world from private citizens. An impromptu shrine of sort develops near the statue of Mahatma Gandhi in New York City where hundreds of people leave bouquets as a mark of respect for the dead.

The Prime Minister now watches the events unfold. He spends some time in quiet reflection and then asks his political advisor to finalize the details of the UP Cabinet appointments and then he orders a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS). This instruction is relayed to all the CCS members and the NSA and CDS are also invited.

By 0850 Hours, Gen. Pervez Musharraf in a press conference at the Aiwan-i-Sadr in Islamabad condemns the attacks on the places of worship and calls for a summit to discuss any security issues in the region. When asked about the issue of the terrorist attacks in J&K, Musharraf repeats his "Terrorism has no place in Kashmiri struggle" line and abruptly ends the press conference. There is talk in the air of a corps commanders meeting that day. Sources tell the press that an emergency meeting of the Pakistan National Security Council is underway.

By 0900 hours security officials in New Delhi fear that more terrorist strikes on the heads of government may be in the offing. They activate a chapter in India's "Continuity of Government" (CoG) Plan. The venue for the planned CCS meet is shifted to a secure location, the National Command Post-"Kalapahad" (Black Mountain). As they leave for Kalapahad, the Indian Prime Minister and the Defense Minister take their nuclear command and control codes with them. Just before the NSA is due to leave for Kalapahad, a message via Track-II contacts reaches him. The message informs him that General Pervez Musharraf has nothing to do with the present carnage. Also a communication from Para diplomatic contacts in the United States also reaches him, assuring him of the complete support of the US government in any actions India takes to maintain its security.

Just before leaving the CDS orders an increase in aggressive patrolling along the Line of Control and IAF Combat Air Patrols are immediately airborne. For the next two hours the CCS members, the NSA and the CDS are held incommunicado.

The participants of the game at Bharat-Rakshak enter the scenario roughly one hour into their trip to Kalapahad, i.e. around 10 AM of our simulated time. At this point they are given their first peek at the scenario in the form of specially prepared briefing documents. After taking an hour to imbibe the details of the briefing the players begin simulating a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security.

The rest of the events are depicted in the minutes of the CCS simulation.