A Tale of Two Durbars

What They Don’t Teach in American Schools Anymore!

Bharat Verma

Bush and Blair will attack Iraq between November 02 and end February 03 on three counts. First, because “ This is the guy that tried to kill my dad.”  Though General Sun Tzu warned 2500 years ago that “ No ruler should put troops into the field merely to gratify his own spleen; no general should fight a battle simply out of pique.” Second, gain control of the Iraqi Oil. With OPEC thumbing its nose at America by keeping the oil prices artificially high particularly in lean times, attack on Iraq gives an illusion of a good idea. Third, after dethroning Saddam, use Iraq’s liberal and secular fabric as a launching pad to moderate extreme Islamic regimes in West Asia. It is not difficult to guess that after Iraq, it will be Iran on one pretext or the other.

However, if Bush and his lieutenants Cheney and Rumsfield conduct an honest appreciation of gains in Afghanistan, they will realize that so far the cost benefit ratio has not accrued. Terrorist organization Al Qaeda conducted its operations with a few hundred million dollars inflicting collateral damage worth billions. Compare this with United States campaign of 40 billion dollars in Afghanistan where stability remains elusive. American Special Forces are tired of chasing phantoms and want an out. Osama bin Laden’s action further injected nervousness and gloom in the American economy – profits, incomes and prices fell.  Loss of hope, jobs and savings post Nine Eleven if calculated, will run again into billions. The incalculable hidden losses far outweigh the tangible costs. America was built on freedom and liberty, a characteristic that propelled it to unprecedented greatness. Take that away; America will not be America anymore. Affected by paranoia, the terrorists have succeeded in inducing a fear psychosis. Both, investments and visitors are fleeing. Besides Bush Administration squanders goodwill by not following the dictum vis-à-vis Iraq “ What ain't broke, don’t fix it”. Americans want their economy fixed, not Iraq. EU and Asian countries oppose action contemplated against Saddam Hussein. Three permanent Security Council members disapprove. Islamic nations are appalled – attack on Iraq places Christianity in direct conflict with Islam.

If Washington Durbar has started looking as confused and chaotic as the Dilli Durbar, reasons are not difficult to fathom. Instead of learning from the mistakes committed by a nation that has been fighting Islamic fundamentalists for the past fifteen years in Kashmir, Americans in their war against terrorism are hell bent on committing the same blunders. India instead of destroying the source that generates and inducts terrorism has indulged in doing Bhangra inside its own territory. Loss of its military surplus within Kashmir and the North East, continuous employment of the military in police role, attempt to guard each kilometer of land and thereby thinning of its military punch, deployment of Para- military forces to secure vital installations and multitudes of VIPs has only resulted in worsening of the situation. Indian Forces are stretched as well as stressed out for want of an aggressive end game strategy at the political level. If New Delhi wants to win this war, it definitely needs to develop in absolute terms political will toward attacking and destroying the Jehad Factory in Islamabad. India’s Bhangra is limited inside the Indian Territory, as unlike Americans it does not boast of global assets.

The American Bhangra in a similar vein is unlimited as it attempts to protect its worldwide influence and assets. Today, akin to the Indian folly, scattering of American forces on the global level can be observed. They are deployed in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia on one hand and East and West Asia on the other. That American Special Forces instead of Afghans protect President Karzai presents an abnormal picture of Kabul. Is it creeping back to square one? Sure is – Pakistan’s pursuit of potent strategic depth agenda endures. While Western    and Al Jazeera journalists manage to meet Al Qaeda inside Pakistan, the American forces chase phantoms. The widest dispersal of the American military power, like India, remains inside the United States soil to protect citizens from terrorism. Shielding each vital installation from a terrorist attack to finger printing Arab and Islamic visitors is a grueling exercise that strains administrative surplus. Asymmetry created by terrorism anchored on religious motivation is capable of tying in knots extremely large and powerful conventional military, Para –military forces and the intelligence set up, restrict, restrain, cramp and shackle the administrative machinery and place the economy on a blink. In America practically every city now boasts of security cameras monitoring across the board human activities from shopping malls and roads to airports. In India after Akshardham massacre, all temples are being secured against future attacks. Unenviable, demoralizing and near impossible tasks indeed. Driven to a tizzy by the fundamentalists, New Delhi and now Washington are sliding into a no-win situation.

Terrorist networks are like a balloon. Suppress it at one end; it will implode at the other. With ease they neutralize superior military wherewithal. The element of surprise in attack, the shape of aggression, the size of collateral damage cannot be anticipated nor the time of ingress. They can tactically retreat, fade or merge with surroundings like a magician and reappear and strike in a new disguise at the least expected target. If the terrorist networks are motivated by religious fervor with sympathizers spread across the globe as is true in the present case, then it will take a lot more staying power or stamina to root them out than the American forces have demonstrated so far. Also by treating Pakistan’s terror machine as their frontline ally, American failures continue to multiply on ground. Tactical blunders may create new Vietnams. To counter the American presence in Central Asia, Pakistan‘s ISI and Saudi Arabia secretly fund the mosques and madarsas to force exit of foreign forces while offering lip sympathy publicly. Central Asian landscape is suddenly getting dotted with these institutions. The irony is that Pakistan is clandestinely utilizing American aid to this end. Besides diverting such funds to purchase arms. There is a fundamental difference between the two democracies. American approach is action oriented. They will jump into a brawl without thinking just because they are Americans. India is a thinking culture and not an action oriented one, so endless pontification, debate and discussions are possible but decisive action is not.  Bright thinking does not translate into performance on ground due to lack of political will. Each can learn from the other.  Americans need to evaluate the consequences instead of acting like bulls in a china shop. Indians, on the other hand simply must learn to initiate physical action as an alternative to mere daydreaming.

In the unfolding geo-political scenario, therefore it is imperative to solidify gains instead of destabilizing another region thoughtlessly. To profit from war on terrorism, area wise consolidation is of paramount importance. Inducing instability in another large geographical region like West Asia merely adds to diffusion of Forces. Also, without attaining satisfactory resolution of conflict in Central Asia, to extend war to a new zone, which will require intense policing subsequently, demonstrates poverty of skills in planning and directing large-scale politico- military operations. By simultaneously opening and battling on different fronts, Washington is drifting towards disaster.

Similarly, to successfully take on the asymmetric warfare unleashed by Al Qaeda necessitates intelligent alliances in Asia. By refusing to dovetail American strategic objectives with the national interests of Asian countries that are crucial to the overall conduct of the campaign, such alliances will not be forthcoming with ease. Infatuation with its lone super power status in a mistaken belief that American military wherewithal and a ten trillion dollar per fiscal economy are sufficient to rout the menace of terrorism is a false premise. American credibility took a serious knock with its inability to either lend stability to Afghanistan, or eliminate terrorism from Pak- Afghan area, and implement categorical assurances given to India that cross-border terrorism in Kashmir will halt. If war on terrorism is to succeed than America will have to produce strategic synergies with suitable partners in Asia – it does not have very many choices left. Asia’s foremost powerhouse, China is a strategic competitor with ambitions to over shadow America in Asia-Pacific. To that end Beijing supports Islamic countries with proliferation of sensitive technologies to force Washington to police larger number of countries. This dilutes American focus. “Make the barbarians fight while you watch from the mountaintops,” seems to be coming true. The rising tide of fundamentalism and anti-American sentiments in the Islamic nations permit little maneuverability. That takes away an extremely large chunk of Asia. In turn this impacts on sales of high technology to these countries, which results in poor economics. With emergence of Asia as the geo-economic fulcrum, prolonged bout of instability will impact adversely on global economy anyway.  Therefore American need for alliance with India in Asia is far greater than many realize.  United States’ nervousness is clearly palpable. The Islamic fundamentalists aided covertly by China, threaten the current international pecking order and particularly American supremacy. Hence, if Washington Durbar mirrors confusion of the Dilli Durbar, it is understandable. At stake is its position of pre-eminence in international affairs. New Delhi, of course has no such positions to worry about or defend.  There is another vital fundamental difference between the two. United States hits the declining curve as India rises.

If war against terrorism is to be won, sane strategy dictates that Central Asia be sanitized before extending the conflict to another geographical area. What they do not teach in American schools anymore is that sound strategy and emotions do not mix. Bali in Indonesia will occur with regularity unless the Mecca of Terrorism, Islamabad is cleansed. Americans are backing the wrong horse for wrong reasons entirely out of emotional bond perpetuated by Cheney, Rumsfield, Powell and officials who served with Bush Senior’s administration earlier.

In short term, to lower threat perceptions by almost fifty percent, two key players must be neutralized. First, Pakistan is the breeding ground that exports terrorism worldwide. Encourage Pakistan to fragment and disable ISI, if necessary use force. Bypass and bottle the Punjabi Sunni Mussalmans and lay the oil pipelines through other newly created states to usher economic prosperity as poverty and extremism go hand–in-hand. The Pakistan Army, which is dominated by the Punjabi Sunnis, is the core group fanning hatred with extended bases in Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Burma, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and many other countries. In Kuta, Australian tourists learnt that terrorism now knocks at the doors of their mainland. Unless Islamabad’s University of Terrorism is dismantled, modicum of peace will not dawn in Central Asia. Second, Pakistan a mercenary state will continue to indulge in nefarious activities due to backing from its benefactors, which surprisingly include America and China. However, Saudi Arabia is the culprit that funds spread of extreme form of Wahhabism that creates terror. Saudis have much to explain and should be taken to task. If in the first instance, had Washington durbar dispassionately reviewed the picture, mapping axis of evil would be limited to Pakistan and Saudi Arabia!

Is the Bush administration more enlightened with fresh lightening attack by the Islamists all over? Besides rhetoric, what does it intend do with emergence of duly elected hardliners in Pakistan? Key questions that require answers in fast forward mode. Has it occurred that without an alliance, it cannot conclude this war? Therefore, the second indispensable element in the strategy is an inherent compulsion to carry regional players along. By making integral their security concerns and aspirations within the overall policy framework will encourage them to lend a helping hand. Russia simply cannot be over looked, as Central Asia tends to gravitate naturally towards her. Iran carries substantial influence. It must be nudged towards moderation. China is a ‘maybe’ being a strategic competitor with special affinity to Pakistan! India holds apart the fundamentalist fervor in East, West and Central Asia by virtue of its geo-strategic location and liberal outlook. In years to follow, Indian capabilities will get beefed up in spite of the condescending sermons dished out daily by the West. Hence, it will be a folly to ignore India. Washington, to fashion a successful strategy, therefore, must take its pick between University of Terror located at Islamabad and the University of Knowledge at New Delhi. In the ultimate analysis these equations will determine the future of Central Asia.

Unless and until Central Asia is brought under control quickly whereby locals as well as major players benefit, terrorist threats will continue to multiply. But this is not to be. Generals Bush and Blair will attack Iraq on one pretext or the other. Thereby, in times to come, will hang another tale.

  The author is editor of the Indian Defence Review and this piece has been reproduced here with his permission.