Enduring Friendship: India and Bhutan 

We are proud to inaugurate our November 2002 issue. His Majesty, King Jigme Singhe Wangchuck of Bhutan, graces the front cover of this issue. We are delighted to share two special anniversaries with the Bhutanese people. This month marks his Majesty's 47^th birthday and the 31^st year on the throne. On these occasions, we are very pleased to present this unique issue focused on Bhutan, India's closest friend. We wish His Majesty a long and prosperous reign and wish the people of Bhutan peace and everlasting friendship. 

In contrast to the rest of the year, the months of October and November have passed somewhat quietly. After all that tension, a bit of rest-and-relaxation seemed almost natural. Govt. of India appears to have seized the initiative yet again by ordering a de-escalation of the forces along the Western border. This move, like the deployment before it, has evoked a mixed response. Leading dailies have somewhat predictably taken to accusing the Government of failure to stop cross border terrorism, of buckling to American pressure and wasting public funds on an ineffective exercise. Several sections of the conservative opinion makers too have presented an unflattering picture of government policy. The release of the details of the deployment in bits and spurts, i.e. tidbits like "Kargil-II" etc... are livening what would otherwise be a most boring affair. In the pell-mell chatter that has come to characterize public debate in India, the motivations for the de-escalation have been totally obscured. 

Despite the appearance of bonhomie and joint exercises, the relationship with the West seems somewhat strained. The US intervention in Iraq hangs like a sword over the country and the War on Terror seems to move one step forward and two steps back. A conclusion slowly building in Indian circles is that the American efforts in the War on Terror seem to lack a sense of conviction. The extent of US public protest on the issue of the Iraq, the uncertainty on the whereabouts of Bin Laden, and the failure to leverage Pakistan to end to sponsorship of terror all bolster this grim view. 

Internally the Government of India has been able to successfully stave off communal unrest despite serious incidents like the terrorist attack on the Akshardham temple, but the sudden spurt in terrorist activity may allude to something quite sinister being afoot. The emergence of the Laskhar-e-Kasas is certainly not a mere footnote. In Jammu and Kashmir, the PDP led alliance seems to be taking its first few steps in governance. With so many expectations hanging on its performance, teething troubles seem quite likely. On the economic front also, weak pace disinvestments is a cause for some concern. By contrast changes in the Armed Forces are taking place smoothly. We take this opportunity to congratulate and welcome Gen. Nirmal Chander Vij, who takes over as the Army Chief on December 31, 2002. 

In Pakistan, things as usual are far from settled. General Musharraf continues to weave a complicated web of political machinations to reach a compromise between "Army, Allah and America". After great struggles and threats to set aside the election result, Gen. Musharraf has finally managed to select Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali as the Prime Minister. The adverse effects of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal's victory on the US led Global War on Terror are now becoming clearer. Reports of renewed Al-Qaeeda activity in the NWFP and Baluchistan are piling up. The Pakistani government has also released the leader of the  Lashkar-e-Taiba, Hafeez Muhammed Saeed, much to the dismay of most observers in the region. The allegations emerging about the transfer of nuclear weapons technology by Pakistan to North Korea are also quite alarming. It does not seem too much of stretch of the imagination to visualize a similar transfer by the Pakistanis to Saudi Arabia or even for that matter to Al-Qaeeda itself. What is most worrisome is the prospect that some of these transfers to North Korea took place  after  Pakistan agreed to cooperate with the US led War on Terror. Despite these obviously discouraging signs every political pundit in Pakistan seems very upbeat about the prospect of talks with India. One can only surmise that the Pakistanis are interested as in the past with the mere appearance of the talks as opposed to their actual content. General Musharraf of course loudly proclaims his eternal commitment to the War on Terror, and it is impossible to discern who exactly believes him. 

Nepal ends a year of civil war with a governmental crisis. The ongoing Maoist insurgency prevented the planned November elections and resulted in the dismissal of Prime Minister Deuba and his cabinet by King Gyanendra. Disturbing trends such as the replacement of an elected government with an appointed one and the virulent Maoist insurgency require studied attention.

A quiet time towards the end of the year is also suitable for introspection. How best to ensure that a clearer picture of the gains and losses of the last year emerges in public debate is certainly worth thinking about and so is the leadership change in Communist China. It is also important to reflect on the details of any para-diplomatic contact aimed at stabilizing the situation.