Quo Vadis

The phrase `quo vadis’ has two connotations; the first is a challenge issued to determine the intentions of a possible adversary, while the second alludes to a more introspective look that determines a future course of action. These connotations are probably running through the minds of the NDA constituents. 

Politically the NDA has reached a plateau; it has demonstrated its majority in the Lok Sabha. It has stood its ground throughout the stormy regional elections and the horrific Gujurat riots. There is a small trial of strength over the issue of the presidential election in the months to come, but the NDA has succeeded in building a political consensus in the aftermath of the Kaluchak massacre.

This is therefore a time of introspection for the NDA. To tide over the coming months, which will most likely see heightened communal tension on account of a possible Indo-Pak conflict, the NDA must seek to

·        Restore law and order in Gujarat and bring back normalcy. The appointment of K.P.S. Gill is a step in the right direction and bringing to book all those who broke the law is paramount to bring tranquility in the community and to restart economic development.

·        Conduct the Presidential elections with minimum rancor.

·        Keep the disinvestments program and the second phase of the economic reforms in the public eye. This will bolster the country’s image and ease any domestic economic pressures that may flare up. 

·        Maintain the political tempo in Jammu and Kashmir. Govt. of India has successfully engaged some sections of the APHC in dialogue aimed at participating in the electoral process, however this has led to an all too predictable backlash from Pakistan backed extremists. The assassination of moderate APHC leader Abdul Ghani Lone and his Indian bodyguards by unknown assassins cannot be allowed to derail the process.

On the international front these last two months have seen an unprecedented change in the security postures in the region.  It is imperative to establish where the interests of each of the players lie to determine an adequate response.

The US led forces have finally begun operations against Al Qaeeda targets in Pakistan. The US Government has also succeeded in establishing a highly advanced information network, capable at least in principle of tracking the movement of Al Qaeeda suspects in Pakistan. This has increased the insecurities of the Pakistani establishment and earned the ire of the Jehad syndicates. The clearest expression of this is the lack of progress in the Pearl Murder Case; the Islamabad Church Attack that killed NSA-CIA officer Barbara Green and the Karachi suicide bombing. These advances in the US led War on Terrorism have posted a high diplomatic price. There appears to be a massive shift in the profile of the US diplomats in Pakistan. News items speak about a change of guard at the Embassy with the departure of Ambassador Wendy Chamberlain and several other key staff. This loss of leverage is a matter of concern for India. 

In Pakistan after making the January 12 speech General Musharraf has secured the international support he needed to stall an Indian military strike. He has used this time to consolidate his hold on the local polity through a rigged referendum. This rigged referendum however has considerably weakened his ties to the pro-democracy political formations in Pakistan. Despite intense domestic problems the Pakistan Army remains committed to a mobilization on its eastern border. The Jehadi syndicates have used this period to mount aggressive operations into Jammu and Kashmir thereby negating any promises made in the January 12 speech. The most heinous of these has been suicide attack on the Indian Army cantonment at Kaluchak in Jammu, which killed several women and children. This massacre has forced the entire region to go one step further up the escalatory ladder. However General Musharraf is unaffected and continues to say something while doing quite the opposite.

In Nepal, the induction of the army into internal security operations against the Maoists seems to have finally paid off. The army has been able to mount very successful operations against the Maoists deep within their heartland. This is a body blow to the movement. 

The Bhutanese armed forces have carried out sustained operations against the ULFA militants who were taking shelter in Bhutanese territory. This has weakened the hold of the ULFA in the region.

In India this period has seen a massive shift in its security posture. The work on the Chief Integrated Defence Staff and the nuclear command and control network appears to be proceeding smoothly. A number of new military formations are in the process of being raised. On the western front, this period has seen a gradual hardening of the mobilization set in motion on December 14, 2001. Many more units have been moved to forward positions and a very high state of alert continues to be maintained. In the Kashmir region the tempo of counter-terrorist operations has increased. There appears to be a full-scale split within the Hizbul Mujaheddin, a Kashmiri separatist organization and several of its top commanders appear to have defected to the Indian side. Cooperation with foreign countries in the field of defence has grown in this period. There have been several joint exercises with US and other coalition forces and many new defence purchases from western sources seem to be on the horizon. India's engagement with Russia continues unabated by recent events. A far less visible cooperation with security forces in Nepal and Bhutan has yielded stunning results in the past two months.

It is our opinion that the NDA must maintain this momentum. The imperative is to seize the moment and act in national interests. Unilaterally or through consensus the NDA should act and govern with speed. India in the end has to solve its own problems with minimal fallout to its society.