Captain Bharat Verma 

Two trends are discernible in the emerging geo-political scenario post Nine Eleven.  First, by and large, the alienation caused by war on terrorism will increase the political distances between the Western countries (particularly America) and the Islamic Bloc. Islamic countries constitute a huge segment of the international community. In the great power rivalry, China which mostly offered lip sympathy (and little else) as a sequel to the Twin Towers blast, will continue to fish in the troubled Islamic waters and gain support through proliferation of sensitive technologies and other methods. The Red Dragon thus will attempt to erode the Western countries’ power to mould and influence the world in the coming decade.  The present international order is under stress. Many of the Islamic countries  (particularly those considered rogue states) will tend to align with China of their own volition. With China and a fair chunk of the Islamic Bloc in sympathy with each other, a powerful alternative sphere of influence in the global affairs is likely to emerge. Second, America will attempt to knit together all democracies as the new mantra to prolong its status as the lone super power while attempting to degrade military capabilities of the so called rogue states. Mostly the American wish list contains Islamic names and that is not a coincidence. If they succeed in breaking up the pan- Islamic ambitions currently in vogue their aims to retain world dominance will largely be met. Simultaneously, it will craft a policy to counter balance China –the strategic competitor. These are the initial visible contours of the new American unilateralist approach through multilateralism of democracies.

Evolving outlines confer on India distinct geo-political advantages. First unlike America, India is not at war with Islamic Jehad worldwide or for that matter with Islam.  At worst and one way or the other we need to resolve the problem created by Pakistan. That it happens to be an Islamic state is a secondary issue. Particularly in view of the fact that our citizenry consists of the second largest Muslim population in the world.  We must learn to leverage it. Fashionable rhetoric that we are in the same international coalition against terrorism as Pakistan  (a net exporter of terrorism) is illogical and simply not true. Neither is the picture being promoted by Washington scholars that since India has a larger role to play in the context of Asian Security, it must stop wasting its energy on smaller neighbour in the West. The fact is that if Pakistan continues to stoke fire in our house, the first strategic requirement is to resolve this menace instead of getting carried away by a vague notion of the Asian Security! Second, we can access superior weapon technologies or weapon systems from the West, Israel, and Russia.  In future China or the Islamic countries are not likely to benefit in this respect from the Western countries. This can lend a cutting edge in building our military sinews. Third, skilled Indian population is the most sought after in the West. Politically this demographic flow ensures enhanced diplomatic relationships as well as boosts the foreign exchange reserves. In particular, with an indefinite wait listed status clamped on passport holders of Islamic nations by America, larger migration by Indians is a certainty that bestows political clout if MEA can so network it. Last but not the least, in Asia we are the second largest happening market – geo-economic card favours New Delhi.

In spite of the problems and poor governance, India is well on its way to national integration. The Indian chaos and confusion in policymaking has withstood the test of time (I dare say that India’s chaos confused Pakistani terrorists no end!) due to the individual genius of its people. Pakistan (which has always been backed by the Western nations) and China have failed in their objective of witnessing India disintegrate.  In fact, the truth is that Pakistan today is a failed state living on doles from others, its wings clipped by the donors to safeguard their territory from further terrorist attacks.  American intentions to expand their sojourn in Pakistan are based on three factors. First, Pakistan can be twisted around mercilessly to further their operations in Central Asian oil game. In this, support of the professional Pakistani Army is a better bet than the rag tag free wheeling military of Afghanistan. Second, the heavy Chinese investment in Pakistan and efforts to increase its influence in Central Asia, can be brought to naught. Third, shifting its bases from Pakistan will spell fresh growth of terror targeted at America. Fourth, Collin Powell theory is anchored on a single pillar that Pakistan must continue to act as a counter weight to India. Otherwise, our influences may seep into Central Asia effortlessly. Frankly today Pakistan does not require posting its own ambassador in Washington as it has an excellent one in Mr. Powell. We cannot overlook two ambitions inherent in Powell theory. First, balance India’s growing clout through Pakistan and second, use India as counter weight against China. However the truth is that Americans cannot afford existence of pockets of terrorism any where (including POK) for their own safety. This catch–22 option out weighs all other advantages. India acts as a major bulwark in the face of terrorism that ultimately lends strength to America’s current war. This is where Collin Powell theory falls flat. America cannot win this extended manpower intensive war on terrorism with out India’s support in the long run. In my considered opinion, Americans in a variety of ways need us slightly more, than we need them.

First we have been chugging along without American help for the last fifty- four years. Second we are a nuclear power on our own steam. Third, despite sanction regimes, Indian missile programme is in good shape and on course. Fourth, space applications are improving by the day. Fifth, huge middle class is bulging at the seams. Sixth, we lead in the IT or the knowledge industry, which is where the future is. Seventh, foreign exchange reserves are on the mend. India’s strategic location in Indian Ocean and many other factors, despite paucity in quality leadership continue to propel India towards a great power status. Despite every mischief generated by others and our more- than- generous internal fault lines, we have managed to retain our strategic autonomy. Such are skills and genius of its people! The unfolding decade will witness that majority of the signposts point to India. Therefore, to derive maximum benefit as a nation will depend on the finesse with which New Delhi learns to play poker.

Foreign policy of a nation is a means to further its national interest. However foreign policy is not an end in itself. To be effective it primarily depends on two instruments of the state – the economic power and the military muscle. Within the two, ultimately it is the military power that lends foreign policy the cutting edge. In the ultimate analysis ability o defend the freedom of a nation and the prosperity of its society, rests on the shoulders of the military machine. In spite of our belief in peace, we are witness to the fact that in 70’s a team from Georgia University conducted study to snatch away the North East, during the 71 War Washington egged Beijing to attack India, American Air Force carried out sand model exercise to take out the Indian nukes and China continues to aid Pakistan militarily while professing Principles of Panchsheel to its originators. The underlying lesson in all these games that nations play to weaken another is the fact that due to our military capabilities no harm came India’s way. Assumptions in the South Block that foreign policy is an end itself instead of being merely means to attain national objectives has resulted in the military power becoming a footnote in Independent India’s history. A dangerous trend that should be corrected immediately.

Skilled employment of military power along with the instrument of intelligence by the state has two distinct roles. First, it acts as a vital tool of coercive diplomacy. Attack on Parliament forced us to deploy forces in forward war positions as a coercive measure. Second, use of the military instrument is to wage and win wars. In either case, whenever push comes to a shove, it is the military wherewithal that enables foreign policy aims to be fulfilled. Lets face the stark truth - foreign offices worldwide do not win wars, military does. Therefore to further hone the military prowess, New Delhi should display political will broadly in two areas. First, ageing profile of the military should be firmly reversed. Young military is an operational requirement. Its folly of the first order If India persists in granting the rank of a Brigadier to an Officer at the age of 49 – 50 and expects him to command a brigade in Siachin or Kargil. At that age he should be a three star general to be really effective. Similarly a Jawan’s Colour service should be reduced to ten years (earlier it used to be seven years) from the present seventeen years. Shortages of thirty percent Officers (Captains and Majors) at the cutting edge of the Army is alarming. They are the ones who physically move and win wars. The answer as suggested by many does not lie in compulsory military service. That is neither feasible nor desirable. However lateral induction into Central and State Government Services, Para – Military Forces or Police services of military personnel with service seniority intact will attract more youth, keep the military young, spread discipline, and add luster to the doddering administrative machinery. After all, military runs the best training academies. Hence there is no logic in wasting this dynamic manpower by not giving adequate incentives to the young. Moreover, spread of military culture will add to the strength of the nation anyway. Second, at least in the aftermath of Kargil we should have equipped the Defence Services quickly with the requisite arsenal. We did not. This paralysis in decision-making  is unpardonable as it jeopardizes nation’s security. Unwittingly we have been undermining India’s military capabilities out of sheer ignorance. Thereby reducing the effectiveness of our foreign policy too. Scandals like Tehlka while being investigated cannot be allowed to disable induction of weapon systems and ammunition.

To optimize geo-political leeway post Nine Eleven, India’s foreign policy should be anchored on pursuit of strategic autonomy while rapidly forming close alliances through geo-economics and pragmatic interaction with friendly nations. First, Indo- US relationships must be given a flip where possible without loosing independent moorings of the foreign policy or by allowing subordination of the military power. Similarity exists on conduct of relentless war on terrorism, retention of societal freedom, enhancement of trade and commerce, counter balancing China and securing the sea-lanes through military cooperation. However our interests differ on many counts. Unlike America, India is located in the toughest neighourhood. Our citizenry boasts of the second largest Muslim population in the world with equal rights and opportunities. They enjoy unprecedented freedom in comparision with any Islamic state. We continue to enjoy friendly relations with countries like Iran and Iraq and see no reason for change in our outlook. In a nutshell, we can support each other wherever commonality of purpose exists. Second, as the second largest market in Asia, India should intelligently play its geo-economic card to improve its influence. For example statement- a -day is being issued that FDI flow into India will be affected incase the five letter word Enron does not witness a positive settlement. However FDI does not stop flowing on individual whims. Money goes where it begets money! If our financial systems are fair, India will automatically attract enhanced Foreign Direct Investment. We require privatization more than globalization-GOI is moving in the correct direction. If we look closer home, Kuwait alone is willing to invest five billion dollars in the Indian infrastructure over a period of five years. There is another geo-political spin off. With historical ties, Kuwait can act as a gateway to the Gulf Countries where large Indian population works. In fact New Delhi should increase its geo-economic activities in its “Look East” policy, Central and West Asia besides the Western countries. Shrewdly dealt, India’s geo-economic card will fetch large dividends in geo-political support. Third, China poses a long-term threat. As long as India’s military posture remains in high gear, China stands checkmated. Bottom line: On one hand, increase military capabilities that out gun China, should such dangers be posed. On the other, increase trade and investments in each other. Historically Indian and Chinese influences have always existed side by side in Asia without clash. This is not true in the present context. Especially since both Asian giants are rising at the same time and vying for strategic space, maintaining military superiority is of paramount importance.

With New Delhi as a popular diplomatic destination, if we learn to assess and contain a developing trend inimical to us well in time (for example Pakistan’s proxy war), compete fiercely to expand our strategic space and develop adequate political will to wield the military machine with a telling effect in defence of national interests, India will emerge as a great power within this decade.