Indian interests in Afghanistan

The dramatic collapse of Taliban resistance in Afghanistan and the fall of Kabul to the Northern Alliance show how fragile the Taliban power base was. Here was an outfit that rolled up all opposing it in Afghanistan, in a short period between 1994-1997, to claim Kabul in the aftermath of the mujahadeen takeover. It seemed poised to export its brand of extremist fundamentalism throughout the Muslim world, and radicalize society and body politic like never before. It brought back a mediaeval outlook to life and society back to Afghanistan not seen since the early part of the last millennium. The Taliban over-reached itself by participating in the attack on the World Trade Center in the United States. It underestimated the resolve and the strength of the United States and the states supporting the Northern Alliance, which have suffered less spectacularly from its depredations.  While the US bombing campaign no doubt weakened it, it was the ground offensive by the Northern Alliance that started the rout.

During the 1970s, Afghanistan was set on a course of political and social modernization that was ultimately undermined by fundamentalist elements with support from Pakistan. Everything about the Pakistani intervention since 1992 has been retrograde. Now that peace finally has a chance it is encouraging to see the Northern Alliance and other factions speak of need for the establishment of a representative government encompassing all elements of in Afghan society. As moves are afoot to establish constitutional order in Afghanistan, it is useful to examine India's interests in Afghanistan. Indian interests in Afghanistan can be divided into security, political, economic and miscellaneous.

The security interests can be further divided into internal and external. The worsening internal security situation in Jammu and Kashmir has coincided with the rise of the Taliban. The existence of a client regime in Afghanistan had allowed Pakistan to move ISI run terrorist into Afghanistan, outside the range of Indian security forces. Pakistani terrorists were further reinforced by foreign elements that have taken part in the war against the Soviets. Additionally, the Taliban had provided aid and shelter to criminals like the hijackers of the Indian Airlines plane IC 814. Hence the Taliban were closely involved in insurgencies and terrorism directed against the Indian state and its people. Not surprisingly, the closure of terrorist camps across Afghanistan is top priority for India. Furthermore, the narcotics trade originating in Afghanistan is used to fund the ISI's covert operations against India and the cutting-off this source is a key Indian objective. This also reduces the drug supplies to the underworld and has ripple effects in the Indian society. The external security is impacted in an indirect manner. Pakistan was hoping to create 'strategic depth' in Taliban controlled Afghanistan. This was meant to stage their reserves in Afghanistan out of reach of Indian armed forces. In addition it was able to divert troops towards the Indian border taking advantage of a friendly regime in the West. The presence of an assertive regime, which puts Afghan interests first, would relieve the pressure on Indian borders. It would reduce the room for strategic maneuver available to Pakistani forces.

In addition to the security interests there are political interests. Afghanistan is a multi-ethnic state. It has Sunni Pashtuns in the south and Tajiks, Uzbeks in the North, and Shia Hazaras in the centre. A composite ethnic state can exist only with representative government. If Afghanistan succeeds it will be a model for the Islamic world and should be supported as a global effort. Afghanistan is the gateway to Central Asia. A radical regime in Afghanistan could export its brand of beliefs and destabilize Central Asia and the newly emergent republics of the post Soviet era. This region is the home of the last great energy finds in the world and destabilization here would effect energy prices everywhere and impact economic growth needed for India to take its rightful place. The British drew the Durand Line, between present-day Pakistan and Afghanistan and it was in effect till the last decade when the treaty lapsed. It has not been renegotiated and could be a contentious cause between the two states. At a minimum this issue will preclude their coming together for a common cause against India.

India’s economic interests are no less significant. After the destruction wrought by the Soviet takeover, the civil war for control between Taliban and the Northern Alliance and the US bombing campaign to dislodge the Taliban and Osama Bin Laden, reconstruction is major priority. India can help in this reconstruction and rebuild the infrastructure. Entire segments of the economy have to be rebuilt - communications, transport, education, health care and civil administration and military training. Even if the pipeline does not come through Afghanistan, the presence of a moderate regime in Afghanistan will enhance the flow of oil, which is essential for economic stability. Other interests include cultural and historic ties with the people of Afghanistan, which go back long in time. There is no need to wax romantic about these but they are not insignificant - Tandoori cuisine, Kabuliwala moneylenders immortalized in story by Tagore and Balraj Sahani in film. It is heartening that the songs that the Afghans sang after the liberation of Kabul are those from Bollywood – India’s film industry.

Successive Indian governments have been quite aware of these interests and sought to advance them in spite of the limited scope for such moves. The main thrust was to support the central regime in order to ensure that the country does not split along factional lines. This support was misunderstood by the mujahadeen mistook this to be an endorsement of the Soviet takeover and it kept India at a distance after the Soviet withdrawal.  Fortunately India has been more engaged and sensitive to the needs of the Afghan people. It’s unwavering support of the country’s legitimate government since 1992 has gone a long way in persuading the Northern Alliance of its sincerity.