A weekend in Agra

Now that the Agra summit has ended inconclusively, there is a lot of soul searching going on in India. Despite its outcome, holding the summit was the right thing to do. India, being the pre-eminent power in the region, had to explore all possibilities for restoring normalcy to the Kashmir Valley as process that would eventually lead to peace and prosperity in the region. The road to the summit began with the declaration of the cessation of combat operations in Jammu and Kashmir. That step lead to a clear distinction between local militants and foreign-based terrorists. Whilst the former was clearly interested in exploring peace, the latter had no interest in giving up a lucrative profession, and continued to bomb markets and buses. Either way it was important that dialogue with Pakistan be revived. The Government of India (GoI) put aside the betrayal at Kargil perfidy, and invited its mastermind to establish a composite dialogue on a range of issues confronting the two neighbors. Some are of the opinion that GoI's action has bestowed legitimacy upon the Pakistani dictator, however geography does not offer us the luxury of waiting to deal with regimes which are more palatable to us. Besides, the choice of regime types is an internal matter for the unfortunate people of Pakistan.

Despite grave provocation - invitation to Hurriyat, escalating rhetoric prior to summit, diplomatic impropriety and in the end failure to produce joint documents, the GoI is well advised to continue to implement the Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) announced prior to the summit. It should continue to reach out to the people of Pakistan and go over the leaders, i.e. beyond Track I diplomacy. It was fortunate that these were announced prior to the summit lest they be held hostage to the compulsions of the other side. The summit failed to produce joint documents, as the Pakistani leadership was obsessed with 'Kashmir' issue and was not prepared to take any action that could be interpreted as a dilution of their stance back home, by extra-constitutional actors. Their obfuscation on cross border terrorism shows that one can expect an increase in such actions in Jammu & Kashmir and beyond. This is due to the relatively low cost to them of the proxy war and a perceived lack of blowback. India did the right thing in exploring all options for peace. It is now time to explore how the direct cost can be raised without escalation. As the proxy war gains its sustenance from drug trafficking and money laundering efforts in reducing the benefits from this area are worth pursuing. Further backers of the regime among the OIC and beyond have to pay the price for their support of this terrorist activity. The militancy in the state of Jammu & Kashmir has been separated into indigenous movement and foreign based terrorists by the cessation of combat operations. On the political front, the summit has clearly highlighted cleavages between the locally inspired groups and the Hurriyat, who were shown to be little more than agents of Pakistan.

It is very essential to build on the gains from this schism by providing economic measures to isolate foreign-based terrorists and their political kin. While doing all this the GoI should not let Pakistan hold hostage its relations with other countries in the region. Initiatives beyond SAARC should be pursued to bring peace and prosperity to the region. The focus should be to move beyond the obduracy of the regime in Pakistan. Internally the GoI should bring the second phase of reforms so that the life of the average citizen of India improves. This is the primary goal of any representative government. The government should ponder on how they could communicate directly to the public their message. As the summit illustrated, the press in India remains ill-suited to grasping the complexity of public policy issues and are often unable articulate the national interest persuasively. Some form of institutionalized governmental address to the nation should be part and parcel of the media management process.