India Looks East

"The engagement of a militarily stronger, economically prosperous, democratic and secular India imparts greater stability to the region." - Jaswant Singh, Minster of External Affairs.

In the last decade and increasingly in the past year India has improved relations with its Southeast Asian neighbors. This improvement of ties builds upon existing historical connections. Indeed, India has in the past had a profound influence on the region. In the first few centuries after Christ, seafarers from Southern and Eastern India journeyed to the kingdoms of Southeast Asia. This resulted in the development of an active sea trade and facilitated the introduction of Indian culture. Today this is seen in the largely Buddhist populations through out the region as well as Hindu and Buddhist influences in Angkor Thom and Angkor Wat in Cambodia and on the island of Bali in largely Islamic Indonesia. Besides religion, the traders brought their language; the script of Southeast Asian languages resembles South Indian languages and even contains Sanskrit words. In the twelfth to fourteenth centuries, Islam spread to the region from India by seafarers as Hinduism and Buddhism did centuries before and took hold in Indonesia and Malaysia. During colonial times, the British who used Indian troops and police as peacekeepers in the region controlled both regions. Indian troops defended parts of Burma (present day Myanmar) and Malaysia from Japanese onslaughts in World War II. Later an independent India supported the will of the Southeast Asian colonies to be free of European control. Indonesia's freedom struggle was supported by Prime Minister Nehru. P.M. Nehru and President Sukarno of Indonesia were among the founding members of the Non Aligned Movement (NAM) and India encouraged other countries in the region to take part in NAM. In 1954, Indian soldiers under the U.N. flag acted as peacekeepers in Indo-China. Some of these countries contain a sizable Indian Diaspora due mainly to the British Empire's encouragement of Indian migration to the Malay Peninsula as indentured servants and entrepreneurs. Today Indians make up 9% of Malaysia's population and are a significant influence in Singapore and Indonesia. Expatriates form a vibrant and financially secure community that can act as India's goodwill ambassadors and facilitate economic interactions.

Southeast Asian perceptions & Indian Objectives

Southeast Asian nations perceive India as an alternative to the entanglements with major powers, such as the traditional cold war powers of Russia and U.S. or the resurgent powers of China and Japan. India, unlike other powers, has not sought a military base in the region; nor has it attempted ideological or physical invasions of the region. In addition, Southeast Asian countries don't have any outstanding territorial disputes with India as opposed to the Spratly islands with China. However, that is not to say that the relationship is ideal. There have been "bumps" in the road with regards to the India's naval buildup and the creation of FENC (Far Eastern Naval Command at Andaman & Nicobar Islands), NPT and CTBT and the May 1998 nuclear testing. ASEAN countries which formed SEANWFZ (Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone) in 1995, expressed grave concern about India's nuclear tests but at the same time admonished the world's nuclear powers for maintaining their nuclear arsenals.

Indian government wants to increase India's role in Southeast Asia. This has typically occurred through two major paths. Firstly, an economic route and secondly, a strategic effort, though both paths are intertwined. Economically, Southeast Asia offers a large market of 400 million people for Indian goods as well as a source for minerals and commodity crops such as palm oil, rice, rubber and tin. Trade between the two has grown from $2.5 billion in 1993-94 to $5.36 billion in 1998-99. Discoveries of oil in Brunei have the potential to reduce India's dependence on Persian Gulf imports. Strategically, India hopes to counterbalance China's increasing influence in the region and in this regard can potentially work with nations who are fearful of China's rise due to historical or current disputes. Additionally, India hopes that cultivating ties with Muslim majority countries of Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia may counterbalance Pakistani hectoring on Kashmir in the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC). Overall, there are far more commonalties between the ASEAN countries and India than points of divergence. Both are developing economies that depend mainly on sea trade and secure shipping lanes. Both have large economic potential, rich resources, and large markets with great export potential. Ironically, some of the points of divergence such as nuclear testing and naval buildup may make India a force for stability in Southeast Asia especially in view of rising Chinese influence.

Engaging ASEAN

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was created in 1967, at a time when Cold War turmoil gripped much of the region. It was created as a protective barrier against the spread of communism from Indo-China. The original members of this organization were Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines. Despite their differences, they held a common anti communist belief. In the 1970's and 1980's these countries recorded rapid economic growth - the fastest among the developing world - came to be called the "miracle" economies or the "Asian Tigers". The key to ASEAN's success is a moderate agenda and a pledge of noninterference in the internal affairs of the member countries, so called the "ASEAN Way". In 1980, India was approached but rejected ASEAN's offer to join as a dialogue partner and instead supported Vietnam's armed intervention in Cambodia.

In 1991, as the cold war ended, India awoke to the possibility of improving relations with Southeast Asia, a region with whom it had historical links that lay dormant due to the Cold War alliances. The end of the Cold War created an opportunity in the form of a power vacuum in the region. Both the U.S. and the Soviet Union closed down military bases, in the Philippines and Vietnam, respectively. Diplomatic dialogue was preferred to military posturing, and led to the rise in importance of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). Facilitating India's desire to improve relations with ASEAN were its economic reforms and the withdrawal of Vietnamese troops from Cambodia (Paris Accords of 1991). The second factor significantly aided India, since it supported Vietnamese troop presence, generally seen as a bottleneck to improving relations with ASEAN. Peaceful resolution of the Cambodian problem allowed India to improve relations with ASEAN countries without straining Indo-Vietnamese relations. Once again, Indian soldiers played the role of peacekeepers in war torn Cambodia. In 1992, India became a secretarial dialogue partner, an entry-level position into the ARF. Between 1992 and 1995, Prime Minister Narasimha Rao visited Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam, resulting in improved relations between India and the respective countries. Trade between these countries and India increased and defense agreements were signed in 1993 and 1994 with Malaysia and Vietnam. In December of 1995, India became a dialogue partner of ASEAN and attended the third ARF session in Jakarta the following year.

In 1998, the fifth ARF meeting was held in Manila. It discussed two major issues that had become critical for ASEAN's security. The economic issue was that of the Asian Flu, initially starting as a Thai currency problem and quickly spreading through the region. The second was India's May 1998 nuclear tests that were quickly followed by Pakistani tests. This heightened tensions on the Indian Subcontinent, increasing fears of a nuclear arms race and worse still raised the specter of nuclear war. Although this was not directly an ASEAN problem, it did have far reaching implications especially since Southeast Asia is a nuclear free zone. The initial note by ASEAN, was of strong condemnation and fully supported by the Foreign Secretary of the Philippines, Mr. Siazon. India's diplomatic initiative, along with previously inconsistent responses by ASEAN to French and Chinese nuclear tests and the desire of most ASEAN countries to not lecture India on its security needs were responsible for the change of tone to the final statement. In its final statement, ASEAN expressed grave concerns about the recent nuclear tests. Another reason for the change in the ASEAN statement may have been its desire to not embroil itself in the internal affairs of India and Pakistan especially in light of its unresolved territorial disputes.

The 1998 ARF meeting was a significant turning point. It was the first time when several serious situations had presented themselves. China emerged as a more powerful influence by aiding in stabilization of the Thai currency and a promise not to devalue its own currency. India despite the grave concern expressed by ASEAN, was largely unscathed and added a new dimension to its influence by removing Chinese monopoly on nuclear weapons in Asia and convincing ASEAN not to condemn the nuclear tests. India realized the significance of the Manila ARF meeting and has pledged several measures such as liberal trade credits to help ease the economic situation in the region.

Recent Engagements

A flurry of recent initiatives have been exchanged between India and its Southeast Asian neighbors. An increase in bilateral engagement supplemented by the multilateral engagement with ASEAN. This policy is similar to that of other powers in ARF who use both tracts and specifically use the multilateral tract as a supplement to the developed bilateral relations. In this regard, older agreements have been expanded upon and there has been an increase in both the military and economic links between India and the respective countries.

Militarily, there is a change from security dialogue and joint exercises to a role stressing joint training and sales of defense equipment. This change comes at an appropriate time since ASEAN countries are increasing their military budgets and hoping to improve their security in the face of increasing Chinese military might. At the present time, India has engaged both Malaysia and Vietnam in this regard. India has offered to sell fast patrol boats, small ammunition and upgrade Vietnam's existing fleet of aging MiG fighters. Also, there have been agreements allowing Indian military personnel to train with Vietnamese troops in jungle warfare. Vietnam has a well-known historical expertise in this field. India hopes to use these troops for counterinsurgency operations in Northeastern India. India has offered to sell both Vietnam and Malaysia its multi-role ALH (Advanced Light Helicopter) which is currently under development for the Indian Armed Forces. India has sought to allay fears of its Southeast Asian neighbors who have voiced apprehension over the increasing presence of the Indian Navy in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands by holding annual naval exercises "Milan" with ASEAN & ARF member states most notably Australia and the U.S.

India currently engages in joint ASW (anti submarine warfare) training with Singapore. The Singapore Navy has acquired a single diesel submarine and is strategically located near the Straits of Malacca a major choke point in the world's waterways. India has even made efforts to engage Myanmar. The Myanmar's military junta, the State Peace & Development Council (SPDC), has been courted extensively by China. China has in the past sold about $1.6 billion of military equipment to Myanmar and is one of a very few nations that supports that regime. The SPDC has allowed Chinese presence in the Coco Islands in the northern Bay of Bengal. There are credible reports of Chinese aid in upgrading the naval base on Hianggyi Island as well as building a Signals Intelligence facility on the Great Coco Island. Great Coco Island is of particular importance since it allows the Chinese to monitor the activity of the Indian Navy and any Indian missile tests in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands about 30nm away. Further compounding matters are the reports of Chinese aid in the construction of a naval base in Myanmar which would further increase Chinese naval presence and the usage of Myanmar as a base of operations by secessionist movements in India's Northeast. Despite such entanglements, India has made overtures to Myanmar. India offered to aid Myanmar in rooting out the insurgent movements that plague Myanmar and operate from India in exchange for a vice versa. India has sent military and ministerial delegations to Myanmar to express Indian views on the complex issues between the two countries. General V.P. Malik along with several ministers visited Myanmar in hopes of forging better ties and a mutual understanding of each other's security needs. Reciprocally, General Aye, Vice Chairman of the SPDC and Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Defense Forces and Commander in Chief of Myanmar Army visited Shillong on 7-8 January 2000. In a first ever, Myanmar's Chief of the Navy visited India in hopes of improving future cooperation between the two navies. Furthermore in an attempt to counter Chinese monopoly over Myanmar's military government, India has offered to train Myanmar's armed forces.

Naval diplomacy along with the new naval doctrine will form a critical component of India's policy towards the region. In April 2000, India announced that it would hold bilateral naval exercises with both Vietnam and South Korea (ARF member) and it also plans to hold a unilateral exercise in the South China Sea. The bilateral exercises are a manifestation of a more strategic "Look East" policy. This year the Indian Navy has sent warships, tankers and submarines to Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam for bilateral exercises and as gestures of good will. The holding of unilateral exercises in the South China Sea adds a different dimension. The South China Sea is the location of maritime disputes between several ASEAN countries and China over the Spratly Islands. China laid claims these oil rich islands and subsequently occupied them and aggressively patrols the area. According to a 1992 Chinese law, the South China Sea is considered to be Chinese territory. This has caused alarm in the ASEAN countries. China had agreed to discuss the issue multilaterally but no progress has been made so far. In this light, unilateral exercises by the Indian navy involving several warships, a submarine and a maritime reconnaissance aircraft hope to assert India's naval prowess and establish freedom of navigation of that sea that only China considers its territory. Despite the initial protest by Beijing over the exercises, the Indian Navy was warmly received by their counterparts in the PLAN at Shanghai and even held a brief joint exercise. Furthermore, India hopes to send a signal to its Southeast Asian neighbors that it can challenge China's claims and begin to project itself as counterweight to China.

In November 1999, the seizure of the Japanese ship MV Alondra Rainbow by pirates and its eventual recovery by the Indian Navy due to a coordinated networking with international maritime agencies has highlighted the problem of piracy near the Straits of Malacca, which ironically is one of the busiest and most important regions of sea trade. The recovery of the ship also points to a solution that can be achieved with coordinated patrolling of the region. Japan along with India and ASEAN countries have an interest in maintaining free and secure sea lanes since all of these countries depend on sea trade as the life lines of their economies. Currently, India is proposing that Japan and Vietnam along with India should be strategic partners in anti piracy operations that will involve other ASEAN countries. India has proposed to host an ARF Anti Piracy workshop in Mumbai on the 18-20 October of this year.

In addition to military developments, there have been numerous economic developments. Indonesia's newly elected President Wahid visited India with a large economic agenda. His entourage carried many businessmen of Indian origin. He hoped to further increase trade between the two countries in areas of engineering, pharmaceuticals, and also foods and minerals. In addition to strengthening economic ties, President Wahid also stated the desire for an Asian group with India, China Japan and Indonesia as the four pillars. He possibly meant a strategic partnership especially in light of the political instability and loss of East Timor facing Indonesia. The Indonesian government made overtures to India to aid in improving the Indonesian Navy and provide training to its personnel. Malaysia is India's largest trading partner in the ASEAN group and one of the largest in the world with bilateral trade amounting to $1.89 billion in 1998 – 99. Currently, there are proposals to set up palm oil processing plants, Malaysia is one of the largest palm oil producers in world, has been keen to set up in an effort to retain India's large and lucrative market for palm oil. Also there have been talks of increasing tourism with Malaysia, and efforts to make Malaysia an attractive tourist destination for those Indians vacationing abroad. India has promised economic aid to Vietnam and Cambodia.

While there is increasing bilateral contact between India and individual ASEAN countries, there is a new development on the multilateral front. An economic forum consisting of the Bay of Bengal countries, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Thailand (BIMSTEC) has increased the possibility of economic cooperation. Though this forum was formed four years ago, progress stalled due to Thailand's currency problems and the larger Asian Flu problem. In recent months, trade ministers from these countries have pledged to work for economic cooperation that may lead towards a free trade agreement. BIMSTEC has the potential to be a bridge between SAARC and ASEAN, provided SAARC, which is currently stalled, gets back on track.

India's cooperation with Japan and South Korea, both ARF members, has been bolstered recently. A delegation from South Korea's city of Kimhae declared Ayodhya as their sister city. The people from the city of Kimhae believe that a princess from Ayodhya married King Suro of Kimhae 2000 years ago. The delegation has provided developmental aid as well as cooperation on wide variety of issues ranging from education, health care tourism and cultural affairs. Japan is interested in hiring 10,000 workers over the next five years to meet its demand for skilled IT professionals, who are currently in short supply. Tokyo expressed its desire to cooperate with India on economic issues despite sharp difference over nuclear tests which were strongly condemned by Japan. Recent visit by Japan's Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori have highlighted India's growing role in Asia in general and Southeast Asia in particular. It is Southeast Asia that both countries see a convergence of economic and strategic interests. An accord signed during the visit makes India and Japan ‘global partners' that will work towards stability and economic development in the regional and international arena. This attests to the boundless possibilities of cooperation between India, Southeast and East Asia.

Conclusion & Future

In the past decade, India through its interaction has improved its relationship with ASEAN countries. Upon historical ties, it has built new and modern ties. These ties are centered on economics of trade, technology and military security. India has projected itself as a major power in the region with a military that has the potential to act as a stabilizer and a large market economy that has even greater potential. Above all it has established itself as a power that does not seek territory or wish to spread its ideology, nor does it seek to interfere in the inner working of the individual countries. Likewise, the Southeast Asian countries have responded to this approach. They have enthusiastically proposed economic and even military cooperation.

In 1995, ASEAN saw a potential in an economically growing India that could positively benefit the region and thereby made it a dialogue partner of the ARF. In these past few years India has strengthened both economically and militarily while constructively engaging these countries. Recently India has added a strategic dimension to its role in Southeast Asia by proposing joint patrolling to counter piracy and naval exercises in the South China Sea. This is a reaffirmation and further encouragement of India's engagement in the region. India through its policies of the last few years is poised to significantly improve relations with Southeast Asia and play a greater role in the region, one that will most likely benefit both parties. As a culmination of the recent engagement of Southeast Asia, Prime Minister Vajpayee will visit Thailand and Singapore early in the next year with possible visits to Malaysia and Indonesia occurring later in the year. These visits will build upon the groundwork laid down by Defence Minister George Fernandez and External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh to the region and at the same time highlight the growing importance of the region to India.

In spite of the likelihood of improved relations between India and Southeast Asia, the long-term prognosis is not very clear. The main reason for this is that both Southeast Asia and India are in transition. Currently, India is economically as well as politically and militarily in a state of flux. Southeast Asian countries are recovering from their economic crisis and trying to rebuild their economy. Indonesia, the regional giant, is still mired in economic, political and social upheaval. The other countries that play an influential role in the region such as the U.S. Japan Russia and China are also contemplating their future. The U.S. seems to have delegated some of its stabilizing role to its main regional ally, Australia, as evidenced by the Australian peace keeping forces in East Timor. After the end of the Cold War, the U.S. military has closed down Subic Bay and its airforce base in the Philippines. The base for the USN is currently being built in Singapore and will be completed in the near future. Japan's large but sluggish economy shows no sign of a quick recovery. Its government is reevaluating it role in the region and intends to play a more vital role of ensuring secure sea-lanes in the straits of Malacca. Russia's role in the region has decreased in the post cold war and its current role is minimal compared to other powers influencing the region. A potentially resurgent Russia both economic and political may have a critical role in the region. China currently has a very large amount of influence in the region, may seek to further build on its influence by further improving its economy and modernizing its large military force.

In the current decade, India can further build upon these improved relations which benefit both ASEAN and India. It can show ASEAN that it is their ally and has a vested interest in the peaceful development of the region. India shares common values of protecting sea trade, peaceful settlement of disputes, and economic development. India in order to assure its role in the region must move to further cement ties with the ASEAN members. The strategic role of India has to be expanded in conjunction with the regional countries. India should encourage joint patrolling of the Straits of Malacca, stricter anti-piracy laws and promote economic exchange. It has been speculated that Singapore may be able to play a vital role in India's continuing economic liberalization by generating capital, and in general playing a role analogous to that of Hong Kong for China in the late 80's to early 90's. It has to show ASEAN that it is a viable alternative to the more traditional players in the region. Lastly, it must prove that India is willing to provide a counterbalance in the region, should the situation in the future call for it. In conclusion as India looks to its future in Southeast Asia, it must take into account not just the countries in the region but also other powers that have an undeniable effect on the region.