Article Reviews
C3I, Treaties, Rogue
States and the Indian Ocean
Gurmeet Kanwal. "Command and Control of Nuclear
Weapons in India". Strategic Affairs. Vol XXIII No 10, January 2000.
Command and Control (C&C) is a
critical issue in the formulation of a credible nuclear posture. C&C to the ability to
sanction nuclear operations by authorized decision-makers. It also refers to the checks
and balances in place that prevent theft, unauthorized use or accidental use. Threats to
C&C include the inability to take decisions and issue commands. This may be due to a
"decapitating attack" on major command centers or a failure of communications.
The link between a credible nuclear posture and C&C relates to the ability "to
realize in practice the threats implicit in weapons and strategy."
The authors analyze the various factors that affect a viable and
fail-safe C&C apparatus. The review the situation in other Nuclear Weapons States
(NWS) and attempt to draw conclusions for India. They note that nuclear forces are under
the firm command of political leaders in all NWS except Pakistan. Other aspects of C&C
involve a chain of succession that is known to exist, even if the successors are not
publicly known. Robust command infrastructure includes hardened or mobile command centers
that are designed to withstand or evade nuclear detonations and withstand electro-magnetic
pulses (EMP). Communication networks must be dense and provide redundancy. Negative
control over nuclear forces pertaining to their misuse is generally addressed through a
variety of means including electronic locks or codes and the multiple-person rules.
Clearly, the greater the level of C&C, the lower the state of readiness necessary.
In the Indian context, the authors argue for the involvement of the
military in nuclear decision making. They also argue for a reorganization of the Indian
armed forces as well as the creation of a Strategic Force to be the fifth force of the
Union. This reorganization has faced considerable resistance from the bureaucracy and the
armed forces. The political will to push through these changes does not seem to exist now.
The authors argue for the creation of a survivable command center. There is no indication
that there is any such fixed or mobile command center at present. The creation of a chain
of command and succession is also recommended. The essential aspects of this are the
actual control over the weapons, the line of succession, the devolution of command, and
the pre-delegation of authority. The last does not have to be made public as long as it
exists. There have been suggestions that such a line of succession has been in existence
for some time now. However, inferences of its constituents have been sketchy. In the
Indian context, the key actors are the political, military and scientific masters. The
authors do not discuss the role of the scientific actors in C&C, although it would
seem plausible that they have a role given Indias history with chemical weapons.
The C&C cost of realizing the credibility of a nuclear posture is
considerable compared to the actual cost of developing the technology and building the
weapons. The bottom line is that without command and control there is no credibility.
M.Thundyil
Nicholas A. Sims. "Withdrawal Clauses in Disarmament
Treaties: A Questionable Logic?". Disarmament Diplomacy. Issue 42,
December 1999
A common feature in most of the
multilateral arms control or disarmament treaties is the provision of withdrawal clauses
in the text of those treaties. This provides an escape route for the signees, allowing
them the option of walking out of the treaty should the prevailing circumstances change
significantly enough to pose a threat to a state party's national security. Sims examines
the reasons for the inclusion of such treaties in disarmament treaties such as the
Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).
The BWC and CWC, which focus on the renunciation of certain types of Weapons of Mass
Destruction (WMD), followed the established example of previous arms control treaties of
the 1960's such as the PTBT and the NPT and incorporated "supreme national
interest" withdrawal clauses in their texts. Sims makes a distinction between arms
control treaties - which seek to restrain and not necessarily reduce certain types of
military weaponry - and disarmament treaties - whose purpose is the eventual abolition of
the proscribed weapons. It can be argued that a withdrawal clause is not inconsistent
within the framework of an arms control treaty. However, it is harder to justify its
inclusion in a disarmament treaty that is expected to be universal and durable. It is
recommended that when some form of Nuclear Weapons Convention (NWC) is negotiated, it
should break with precedent and not include a withdrawal clause.
Sims makes a persuasive case in the affirmative to the query in the
title, and the non-inclusion of a withdrawal clause in a future NWC would most likely find
Indian support - particularly given India's stated objections during the CTBT
negotiations. However the possibility of a NWC not having a withdrawal clause seems
remote. Chemical and biological weapons are considered to be a poor man's WMD while
nuclear weapons have come to be associated with a great power cachet. It is hard to expect
a NWC without an escape clause, when the BWC and CWC have one. As is acknowledged by the
author, the BWC and CWC would need relevant amendments and the maturing of inspection and
verification procedures, before a NWC is seriously considered. Of course on top of this
one would have to take into consideration the chances of a NWC coming up in the first
place - given the arguable lack of progress on part of the NWS in complying with the
"good faith" provisions of the NPT.
An interesting point made in passing is the inclusion of the clause in
the CTBT. The difficulty in withdrawing from it once the treaty enters into force, in the
face of pressure from other state parties is emphasized. This is relevant in a situation
when the Indian Government is reportedly working on building a consensus towards signing
the CTBT. Such an effort at consensus must include discussions on the barriers to
withdrawal from CTBT, should horizontal proliferation continue in the neighborhood,
especially given that most states seem reluctant to acknowledge the existence of said
proliferation.
V.Natarajan
Barry Rubin. "US Foreign Policy and Rogue
States". Middle East Review of International Affairs. Vol 3 No 3, September
1999.
This paper sets out to examine the
concept of "rogue state" as the United States applies it today. It is written in
two segments, with the first part focusing on the reasons why the US has come to view
certain countries in such terms. The second part, titled "A Rogues Gallery",
essentially lists the countries which in the past and at present fit into this category.
The author outlines the thinking that leads to the categorisation of a
state as a "rogue" by the US. He suggests that while the labelling of rogue
states is a recent phenomenon, the idea has antecedents going back at least to the early
20th century. Not surprisingly, perhaps, the "Rogues Gallery" begins
with the USSR, Nazi Germany, China, Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya and North Korea. Finally, the
writer names Japan and Syria as two states that were "never quite" regarded as
rogues, yet skirted close enough for inclusion in the "Rogues Gallery".
Defining a rogue state as "one that puts a high priority on
subverting other states and sponsoring non-conventional types of violence against
them", among other things, the writer points out that it is "virtually
inevitable" that rogue states are repressive dictatorships. He adds, however, that
from the US perspective such criteria by themselves are not sufficient. The US must also
see the regime as "outwardly aggressive". Another essential point the writer
makes is that policy success against rogue states must not be measured solely by the
removal of the regime from power, but also by the prevention of such states from
implementing their extreme agendas.
All in all the paper is a clear-cut exposition of the American
perception on "rogue states". Nevertheless, it could have been better organised;
the first segment is rather haphazard in its presentation of ideas and facts, in this
reviewers view. The idea that rogue states began with the USSR in 1917 is also
rather dodgy. Surely, there are examples of rogue states in the 19th century
and earlier. It may have been more instructive if the writer had limited the rogues
gallery" to include only the period since the US began publicly labelling countries
as rogue states.
J.E. Menon
Rahul Roy-Chaudhury. "Maritime
Security in the Indian Ocean Region". Maritime Studies. Issue 90, 1998.
Despite its importance as the transit way for a major portion of the
worlds energy supplies, the study of the security and stability of the Indian Ocean
Region (IOR) has received little importance. The IOR and its littoral areas are also among
the most volatile parts of the world. In his article, Roy-Chaudhury offers us a systematic
view of the challenges to maritime security in the IOR. The region is unique in that it is
bounded by mainly by middle powers and has traditionally been an area of little interest
to the superpowers. However, the demise of traditional superpower rivalry and the
expansion of naval capabilities in the IOR have served to highlight the need for conflict
resolution mechanisms in the region. Apart from threats to the stability of energy
supplies, the IOR is host to a number of other problems namely, the proliferation
of piracy, drugs, and small arms. Quite apart from any impact these may have on energy
supplies, the proliferation of drugs and small arms have the potential to destabilize
states in the IOR littoral.
Security concerns have led to the establishment of a number of
sub-regional forums (such as the Gulf Co-operation Council). However, a greater unified
view of the challenges that confront the IOR appears to be missing. The author correctly
argues that notwithstanding the common interests of most of the states in the security of
energy supplies and trade, there remain a number of factors and issues that could threaten
stability and increase tension in the region. In particular, major sub-regions seem to be
sitting atop dormant or incipient maritime boundary disputes. If disputes in the Timor Sea
(between Australia and Indonesia), or Arabian Sea (Between India and Pakistan) were to
turn violent, there exists the potential to severely disrupt energy supplies. These
disputes taken together with a recent upsurge in naval building programs and recent
extra-regional (Chinese) interests in the Malacca straits complicates the already delicate
security scenario in the IOR. In light of this, the article makes a very strong case in
favor of the need for a multilateral (multi-regional) approach maintaining security in the
IOR.
This multi-lateral approach should include regular interactions between
the littoral states at both political and military levels. The latter would go a long way
in alleviating immediate threats to the security and prosperity of the member states by
tackling piracy and drug trafficking. Roy-Chaudhury argues that the current level of
multilateral naval co-operation in the IOR presently is insufficient to constitute a
credible confidence and trust-building mechanism. This is exacerbated by the absence of a
unified perception of threat/uncertainties, or even an ocean-wide forum for the discussion
of these issues, although considerable activity in this respect has begun recently. These
factors, specific to the Indian Ocean, pose a considerable challenge to effective and
sustained multinational naval co-operation in the region into the twenty-first century.
R. Chattopadhyay |
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© Bharat Rakshak |
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