India tests Trishul SAM
(Hindustan Times, 31 January 2002)

The naval version of the short-range surface-to-air missile, Trishul, was successfully flight tested twice on January 28th and 29th, at Kochi. This is a defensive, 9 km range, anti-missile capable of destroying attacking missiles, and also hitting airborne targets. Delays and unsatisfactory development of the indigenous Trishul have compelled India to import seven Israeli Barak anti-missile systems for the Navy, giving it its first anti-missile capability. Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Madhvendra Singh said earlier this month that the induction of the Barak was proceeding on schedule. The Barak system is reported to have been already installed on the aircraft carrier, INS Viraat.

There was a strong suggestion that the Trishul project, part of the DRDO's Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP) be scrapped. But the view that this would demoralise the domestic defence research & development set-up prevailed, and the project continued. "The Trishul was tested in sea-skimming mode against low-flying targets, establishing the capability of the system in the anti-sea skimmer role," the Ministry of Defence stated. There was no word on the induction target for the Trishul, and how many more tests would be required before final user acceptance. The naval version was last tested, unsuccessfully, in May 2001.

Brahmastra as last resort: Army Chief to clear Prithvi deployment
(The Pioneer, 31 January 2002)

The Union Government, faced with the possibility of a war with Pakistan, has directed the Services to use Prithvi missile as a last resort under utmost restraint. This significant order, in the backdrop of the military build-up on the Indo-Pakistan border, came late last week after the Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) sought clear directions from the Government to meet the threat of battle-field ballistic missiles of Pakistan, sources said. Following the clear-cut guidelines from the Government, the Army has directed the artillery, the main user of Prithvi missile, that use of such missiles will be controlled & sanctioned by the Army Chief. The COSC last week had sought directions from the Government for the use of Prithvi missile in the eventuality of Pakistan using its short-range battlefield ballistic missiles Hatf-I, II and III. The operational commanders also briefed the Government on three other important factors. They included the reaction of international community, enemy's reaction and steps to be taken if enemy pre-empts and launches its missiles, sources said.

The Government, after studying all the implications, ordered the Services to use Prithvi only as a last resort and only if Pakistan launches its Chinese made Hatf missiles. Incidentally, Prithvi and Hatf missiles have a range of 150 to 200 km. The Government also ordered that Prithvi missiles will only carry conventional warheads, sources said. The COSC also urged the Government to have a dialogue with Pakistan, if and when it takes place, in two phases regarding battlefield ballistic missiles. Favouring a battlefield missile regime between the two countries, the committee suggested a composite dialogue at the diplomatic and political level. It should be followed by an interaction between the armed forces of the two countries at the technological and military level, sources said. The two countries have an agreement not to target each other's nuclear facilities and assets besides India's declared policy of no first use of nuclear weapons.

Agni trial delayed thrice
(Indian Express, 31 December 2001)

The testing of the 700-km variant of Agni missile was postponed thrice, Defence Minister George Fernandes said. The test was first scheduled for mid-December and early January. "It was decided long ago that we have a medium-range missile. The test would have been conducted in December. But it turned out to be a month to remember because of what happened on the 13th (attack on Parliament) and the decisions one had to take in the aftermath," he said. "Then the armed forces began their biggest mobilisation after the 1971 war. The attention was diverted to the borders with Pakistani forces not returning to their bases after exercises," Defence Minister Fernandes said.

"The test was then set for early January. But since the visit of the Chinese Prime Minister (Zhu Rongji) had been planned earlier, the test had to be shelved." Defence Minister Fernandes went to the US on January 15th on an invitation from US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld. So the tests had to again wait till he returned. Defence Minister Fernandes emphasised that the purpose of the missile test was purely national security and not politics. "The missile has a role and the weapon sends the message, not what you say," he said. The Agni variant is nuclear capable, road and rail mobile, flies on solid fuel and has a high survivability rate in case of a first strike with a nuclear weapon.

"The role of the missile will be evident as and when it manifests itself. Retaliatory strikes will depend on circumstances," Defence Minister Fernandes said. He, however, declined to comment on the number of pieces the armed forces wanted and the wing that will finally get it. The Defence Minister said the US now appreciates India's stand better and military relations with the country are looking up. "A time table of joint exercises between the two armed forces is being worked out. We are looking at joint ventures in defence production. Projects like the LCA and the Advanced Light Helicopter that were suffering for want of engine and flight control system have been taken care of," he said.

Agni-I: A short range nuclear-missile India urgently needs
(Times of India, 27 January 2002)

By K. Santhanam - Director, Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses and was a project coordinator for India's nuclear weapons programme. He witnessed the Agni-I test on January 25th at Balasore.

The successful launch of the Agni-I missile with a range of 800-900 km from the interim test range, Balasore, on January 25th has great significance for operational aspects of our deterrence posture. The existence of the Agni-1 project has not been generally known outside a small, select group in the government. The road-mobile, solid propellant Agni-1 urgently fills the need for a nuclear missile which could be launched sufficiently far away from the western border. In June 1999, External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh and Defence Minister George Fernandes initiated a discussion on the need for a missile to cover the gap in range between the Prithvi-II (250 km) and the Agni-II (2,500 km). The go ahead to develop, test and produce the Agni-I came in October 1999.

The fact that it took just 15 months to test the missile would indicate that proven technologies and sub-systems from the Agni-II project would have been optimally used to reduce development efforts and speed up hardware realisation indigenously. Information released by DRDO indicates that the first stage and re-entry vehicle of the Agni-II has been used with some modifications in the Agni-I. But that would not be enough. A new closed loop guidance scheme for the atmospheric phase of the missile's trajectory would be needed. Also, some rework of the airframe and sub-assemblies would be necessary because of higher boost phase acceleration expected for Agni-I in comparison to Agni-II. The third member of the family, Agni-III, is in the development stage. It will be rail-mobile and have a range of 3,500 - 4,000 km. Its first test may occur in late 2003.

The design and manufacture of a new road-mobile launcher for this missile, again in 15 months, is noteworthy because it confers operational advantages (e.g. survivability) in movement, deployment and launch. Discussions initiated by the Defence Minister in June 1999 and the go ahead in October 1999 were against the backdrop of the Kargil war and the nuclear shadow. Given India's no-first-use doctrine and Pakistan's NATO-like adherence to first-use, some strategists in India felt that Prithvi deployment, even with conventional warheads, would provoke Pakistan to undertake a pre-emptive nuclear strike because Pakistan may perceive the Prithvi as deployed with nuclear warheads. This theory led to an assertion that the Prithvi deployment would lower the nuclear threshold. Further, given the short range of the Prithvi, its movement from storage depots to launch points would be tracked by Pakistan's intelligence.

It is known that from its inception in 1983, the Prithvi was designed to carry conventional warheads like pre-fragmented monolith and bomblet sub-munitions. However, until June 1999, it is not clear whether any serious direction was given to the DRDO by the services or the government on the inevitable need for a nuclear-capable missile of this type. The fact that the Agni-I was taken as a crash project only in October 1999 indicates the reactive nature of our procedures and processes.

R-Day march gets a 700-km missile salute
(Indian Express, 26 January 2002)

New Delhi shut out shuttle diplomacy for a day and flexed its military muscle by test-firing a medium-range variant (700 km) of the Agni ballistic missile from Wheeler Island off the Orissa coast on January 25th. The Government maintained that the missile test was purely scientific but it was clear that New Delhi had chosen Republic Day eve to tell the world and Indians that it was firm in the stand-off with Pakistan. Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, after receiving a telephone call from Defence Minister George Fernandes who had gone to witness the test, said: "We are taking several steps for the nation's security and protection and Agni is one of them."

The Pakistani reaction was predictably angry, a statement that the test threatened regional stability. Claiming that Islamabad favoured a policy of restraint, the Pakistan foreign office said: "We hope the international community will take note of this Indian behaviour, which is prejudicial to the pursuit of stability in our region, especially during the current situation." In New Delhi, Home Minister L.K. Advani ruled out any immediate military de-escalation along the border and said it would take a couple of months for India to judge whether there is any reduction in Pak-sponsored terrorism. An External Affairs ministry spokesperson said heads of missions of the P-5 (US, Russia, UK, China and France) and the Pakistan Deputy High Commissioner, Jaleel Abbas Jilani, were informed of the test over the last two days.

The Congress stood behind the Government decision to test-fire the missile. "It's a part of the scheduled DRDO program and the Congress congratulates the team of scientists which has once again been successful," Jaipal Reddy said. The Defence Ministry said there was "no political pressure or statement to be made from these tests which have been carried out as per schedule." The testing of this medium range ballistic missile (MRBM), with a range of 700 km and payload capacity of approximately 800-1,000 kg, is a new entry in DRDO's inventory list. Its earlier tests were those of the short range ballistic missile (SRBM) Prithvi (range 150 km) and the intermediate range ballistic missile Agni-I (1,500 km) in May 1989, May 1992 and February 1994; Agni-II (2,000 km plus) in April 1999 and January last year.

K.G. Narayanan, DRDO Chief Advisor, said that the Agni variant tested on January 25th had a different trajectory and propulsion. "This is a shorter range variant of the Agni. We have both long and short range missiles but the requirement projected was for a shorter range, so we tried out this variant. We are very happy with the initial results," Narayanan said. Experts say the missile could also provide the platform to launch low-level earth-orbiting surveillance and reconnaissance satellites. The missile is capable of carrying all kinds of payload, according to DRDO officials. Narayanan, however, refused to comment on the missile's nuclear-payload carrying capabilities. This Agni variant is said to be superior to the Chinese M-9 of the Pakistani Shaheens which fall in the same category. A MoD official said the missile was capable of carrying nuclear cargo. It is a single stage, all-solid fuel missile. Experts say a single stage missile hitting a target accurately at 700 km distance is an achievement. The solid fuel means higher safety standards and a much longer shelf-life. This Agni variant is both road and rail mobile.

India tests nuke capable Agni missile
(Times of India, 26 January 2002)

On the eve of the Republic Day, India successfully test-fired a short-range variant of the Agni ballistic missile. With a range of around 800-900 km, this nuclear-capable Agni-I variant seems to have been specifically designed keeping Pakistan in mind. The surface-to-surface missile was launched from the Wheeler Island test range off the Orissa coast at 8:45 a.m. Significantly, this solid-propellant Agni-I variant can be fired from road-mobile launchers. "This launch is significant for operational aspects of our (nuclear) deterrence posture...And the designing and manufacturing of a new road-mobile launcher for this missile is noteworthy because it confers operational advantages in movement, deployment and launching," said IDSA Director K. Santhanam, who witnessed the launch.

Prime Minister Vajpayee, while congratulating the defence scientists, asserted that the development of this Agni missile system was an ongoing programme and part of several steps taken to bolster the country's security. With only the Prithvi-II, a relatively primitive missile with a range of 150-250 km depending on the payload, actually being inducted into the Army so far, defence experts say India sorely needs such a missile to bridge the gap in range between the Prithvi and the Agni-II missiles. The rail-mobile Agni-II missile, with a 2,500 km range, has already entered limited series production after successful tests and the Army is raising a new missile group to handle this land-based nuclear deterrent. "Agni-III, which is in the development stage, will also be rail-mobile with a range of 3,500 - 4,000 km. Its first test may be in late 2003," said Santhanam.

Experts say the Agni-I variant should successfully fill the void in range between the Prithvi-II and Agni-II missiles. "Moreover, since it is road-mobile, it can also easily be taken to forward areas ahead of the last rail-head," said an expert. Analysts point out similar efforts by Pakistan, whose 750-km range ballistic missile Shaheen-I, basically a derivative of the Chinese M-9 missile, is already in the production\operational phase. "Pakistan also tested its Ghauri-I (1,300-km range) and Ghauri-II (2,000-km range) missiles in 1998-1999. They are also developing Shaheen-II and Ghauri-III missiles," said an expert. There are reports saying that Pakistan recently ordered 100 mobile launchers from China. China, in turn, is continuing with its modernisation programme of building new land-based solid-fuel mobile ICBMs like DF-31 (8,000 km range) and another one with a range of 12,000 km.

Agni successfully test fired
(Rediff, 25 January 2002)

A day ahead of Republic day, India successfully test fired a short range Agni missile, which can strike targets less than 700 km. The missile, which is part of the country's indigenous Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP), was launched at about 0850 hours IST from launch complex number four on the Wheelers' Island off the Orissa coast. An External Affairs Ministry spokesperson confirmed in Delhi that the missile was short range with a capability of less than 700 km. She clarified it was not the intermediate or the longer-range versions of the Agni. She said the timing of the launch was solely guided by technical considerations and there was no political significance or relationship with any event. "We do not view missile tests as sending a political message," she said.

The spokesperson said the heads of mission of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, US, Russia, UK, China and France, apart from Germany, Japan and the current EU president, Spain, were informed about the test. The Deputy High Commissioner of Pakistan was also informed about the test. The spokesperson said the test was undertaken in a non-provocative manner across the international waters in accordance with the fully established practices. She said the countries, which were informed about the test, were told that the missile launch was planned in advance and was not abrupt or sudden.

"The test was undertaken in a predictable and transparent manner," she said, adding that the country's missile program was not country specific. The spokesperson said the test was also part of efforts to evaluate the indigenous capability to guarantee a credible minimum nuclear deterrent. "We are perfectly convinced about the legitimacy of the missile tests," she said. India is the seventh country in the world to have an indigenous ballistic missile capability. This is the sixth time that an Agni missile was launched from the Interim Test Range (ITR) at Chandipur-on-Sea since the maiden test fire on 22 May 1989. The previous missiles were both of medium and long range. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Vajpayee congratulated scientists and technicians on the successful launch of the Agni missile. Defence Minister George Fernandes, who witnessed the test firing, telephoned Prime Minister Vajpayee and informed him about the successful launch of the missile, official sources said.

Way paved for sale of Arrow missiles
(Economic Times, 23 January 2002)

Co-production of intercept ballistic Arrow missile components by Israel Aircraft Industries and Boeing paves the way for US approval of their sale to India, defence sources in Jerusalem say. The agreement, signed on January 20th at IAI headquarters between IAI President Moshe Keret and James Evatt, Executive Vice President of Boeing's Missile Defence Systems, will establish a joint production line in the United States for increased components to accelerate the deployment of Arrow missiles. Israeli defence sources are confident that because of the September 11th attacks in New York and Washington and strategic threats from fundamentalist Islamic terrorist organisations to countries friendly to American policy, the U.S. will allow the sale of Arrow missiles to India, Turkey and South Korea. Such missile sales would not violate the 27-nation Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) designed to prevent the distribution of weapons of mass destruction, say sources in Jerusalem.

The Arrow missile is a defensive weapon and is not meant for launching offensive attacks, they argue, stressing that its payload size and range is much smaller than the regulations laid down by the MTCR. Boeing will produce about 50% of the Arrow missile components in the U.S., excluding the Green Pine long-range acquisition radar and the Golden Etrog control and supervision system - developed and produced wholly in Israel under sole MoD funding. The IAI, as the prime contractor of the Arrow system, will be responsible for the missile's integration and final assembly in Israel. The US Congress has approved a special defence aid grant of $30 million to be transferred to Israel to help complete the establishment of a production line for the next generation of Arrow ballistic intercept missiles. However, the U.S. State Department must first approve a Technical Assistance Agreement (TAA), which Boeing has submitted, before the company can begin actual production of Arrow components.

US may block Israeli missile sale to India
(Deccan Herald, 17 January 2002)

Once again New Delhi will learn the lesson that advanced missile systems cannot be bought off the shelf and in most cases, there is no alternative to indigenous development. India had thought the Israeli Arrow anti-missile system was in the bag. The missile is currently bogged down in consultations between the US and Israel governments. Israel is having to explain why it should be allowed to sell the system to India in view of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and the current tensions between India and Pakistan. New Delhi has in the past suffered as a result of the US restrictions and had asked Israel to make sure that Washington had no objection to these sales and was told that indeed it was so. Some see the new US approach in the light of the sudden change in the US relationship with Pakistan.

The arms supply cases will figure in the Indo-US ministerial talks in New Delhi on January 18th. The issue of India's military withdrawal from the border with Pakistan will be discussed in New Delhi by the visiting Secretary of State Colin Powell who, at the last minute showed some understanding of India's position that an immediate withdrawal as a response to General Pervez Musharraf's address was not possible as New Delhi wanted to watch the situation on the ground. Secretary Powell changed the emphasis in his latest remarks to say that a resumption of diplomatic links and dialogue were more important than military movement. With regard to the Arrow, Washington has special rights because it was a jointly funded project. Even otherwise, Washington has always had the last word on Israel's indigenous technology development as well as its overseas military sales. At times, it is a case of commercial rivalry as when Washington saw to it that Israel did not develop its Lavi advanced jet fighter. Recently, Israel was asked not to deliver an anti-missile system to China.

On the eve of the visit by Defence Minister George Fernandes, the issue of Israeli defence supplies to India came to the fore following reports on the Bush Administration's opposition to the sales. A State Department spokesman clarified the report in a way that only confirmed that the US was seeking to delay the supply of Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS). He did not refer to the Arrow which seems to be attracting MTCR guidelines. Israel is being asked to prove that its transfer does not attract the MTCR guidelines. As to the Phalcon plane and radar system, the spokesman had this to say: "I will say in response to some of the recent press reports I saw regarding, for instance, transfer of a Phalcon radar to India, that we actually support the transfer of that. We are discussing with the Government of Israel on the capabilities and timing related to that." The spokesman also said, "I think certainly we always encourage other countries, including Israel, to take into account the impact of their weapons sales." The Indo-Pakistan situation being what it is, the Bush Administration official who at this juncture wanted to sell nothing to India and Pakistan except 'chewing gum' was perhaps being more truthful and less diplomatic.

The timing and capabilities review have in some cases proved so critical that some deals in the past collapsed despite such support. The buyer may consider that what becomes available subsequently is 'too little, too late' and decides to go in for a suitable alternative. New Delhi may not have any use for a system if its finally offered with degraded capabilities. The issue of MTCR in a wider context is currently being taken up by John Bolton, Under Secretary in the State Department, during his talks in Israel. He is visiting Israel for regular consultations on non-proliferation matters. He had already asked the Israeli ambassador here to justify in writing the proposed sale of Arrow to India. "And, while we have these consultations, I am not aware of any particular time frame. The established timing and, as I said, capabilities ( of weapon systems) are subjects that we would have in terms of consultations, and that may be part of what Bolton raises while he is out there (in Israel)," the spokesman said.

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